Frontier declare that currently 122 countries play the standard beta. In 1 or 2 years it is reasonable to say that there will be at least 50000 players per country, no ? 122 * 50000 = 6 100 000. These are minimum estimates, of course (both the number of countries that the number of players)
What kind of sales numbers can ED expect to see?
- Thread starter Queebatron
- Start date
Sadly, given how few people even know about the game, I wouldn't expect a huge number of sales. I bet a lot of mainstream gaming sites/magazines won't even review it when it's released, and it seems to have approximately zero marketing budget, instead relying entirely on word of mouth. Besides, very few people are actually interested in space sims, especially one as hardcore as Elite. Please do not compare with the old Elite games' performance back in the day, we all know the gaming scene as changed a lot since. And finally, a lot of people serious about buying the game have already done so by backing it, so I'm not sure how many more potential buyers this all leaves...
Let's be realistic, guys, ED probably won't sell tons. People talking about several million sales are simply daydreaming. Games like GTA, FIFA and Call of Duty sell millions, and that's because 1) they are well established franchises (the last Elite game was 20 years ago, young gamers don't know about it) 2) they are released on PC as well as consoles, and actually mostly sell on consoles 3) their genres are very popular and 4) their marketing budget are at least ten times the entire budget of Elite Dangerous. ED can never hope to compete with them in terms of sales numbers.
What we can do is spread the word and try to show it to as many people as possible, as it's surely an impressive game. I think it's biggest chance of success will rely on Oculus Rift ; by the time the consumer version is released, ED will probably be the best and most impressive game available, so some people could by it without being into space sims at all, just for the experience or to show their friends...
Let's be realistic, guys, ED probably won't sell tons. People talking about several million sales are simply daydreaming. Games like GTA, FIFA and Call of Duty sell millions, and that's because 1) they are well established franchises (the last Elite game was 20 years ago, young gamers don't know about it) 2) they are released on PC as well as consoles, and actually mostly sell on consoles 3) their genres are very popular and 4) their marketing budget are at least ten times the entire budget of Elite Dangerous. ED can never hope to compete with them in terms of sales numbers.
What we can do is spread the word and try to show it to as many people as possible, as it's surely an impressive game. I think it's biggest chance of success will rely on Oculus Rift ; by the time the consumer version is released, ED will probably be the best and most impressive game available, so some people could by it without being into space sims at all, just for the experience or to show their friends...
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Yes several millions
Okay, let us theoretically say someone already have paid for all the future expansions. That might compromise the will to engage in moderation, restraint, and conservation of traditional ethical values. I would not know, unless that is indeed what I know. If you know what I'm saying. Without saying it.
All platforms for these ten games
As others have said those figures are just not matched by what is happening in the industry.
In January Skyrim passed 20 million copies and league of legends hit 27 million.
A game like the last of us was counted a huge success at 3 million and tomb raider struggled to get 5 million.
I reckon that they may get in the region of 500k in the first 8 weeks as long as they can get it out for xmas and get a lot of coverage from the internet press.
The problem is that now there is a highly saturated market with thousands of games on steam and more being made as we speak and even though there is a lack of quality there is a huge volume of games being made all trying to get attention.
It's not like the 90's anymore with a few releases that would have heavy coverage with the gaming mags.
In an interview, David declared that he has already sold one games to 10 million of copies (thus for ED he aims also very high). Recently Michael declared, that Frontier, aims at the worldwide
Speculation is all anyone has right now.
There are a huge number of variables that feed into a product's success. As long as it makes 'enough', that's a pretty good start and everything after that is all the better. I'd certainly be inclined to increase my support for the game in the event I felt it wasn't making enough money, because I can see the developers merit it.
There are a huge number of variables that feed into a product's success. As long as it makes 'enough', that's a pretty good start and everything after that is all the better. I'd certainly be inclined to increase my support for the game in the event I felt it wasn't making enough money, because I can see the developers merit it.
I think your being a bit pessimistic here Zephyriel. Look at how the other game is doing and the amount of money behind it because of a colosal marketing train.
I think there will be a large amount of appeal to SC fans once the cat is out of the bag.
Well if the Rift reddit is anything to go by then when Occulus sell a million CV1s that'll be a million more EDs sold.
Unfortunately, in my country, the figure won't be 50,000 like you've estimated. We'll be lucky to have 500 play Elite.
Cuz... the guys here prefer COD/Counterstrike to space stuff. Those that play space stuff are all swooning over Star Citizen due to the marketing hype machine, and hardly anybody has heard of ED. Most just want to relive the Wing Commander experience.
Right now the game is too hard core and niche to get huge sales. Juts traveling alone is a big turn off, hypercurise is really silly feeling and is awkward as you can overshoot things.
Also not much combat at all in the game that is just not plain illegal. So I will withhold judgement for awhile. So far its just not very featured. And in 3 months time it needs to be fully featured. I dont see it happening. But as I understand it ED has never missed a deadline yet. So I hope I am wrong.
Also not much combat at all in the game that is just not plain illegal. So I will withhold judgement for awhile. So far its just not very featured. And in 3 months time it needs to be fully featured. I dont see it happening. But as I understand it ED has never missed a deadline yet. So I hope I am wrong.
Lines like this make me wonder:
I don't find it to hard core nor do I find super cruise to be silly, as it will play a huge part in the exploration part of the game. Currently your playing in systems where you know where planets are. You go exploring you have to find the planets. Go to them, map them, record them etc.... It isn't just a time sink, it is the way to travel to planets and points of interest.
To many today want instant travel, but fail to realize the journey is part of the fun, and what you may encounter on the way. As for over shooting, I rarely do it and when I do, by the time I turn back I am close so the over shoot doesn't delay me but actually was faster as the turn is quick and I drop out within 20km of the station or closer. So over shooting just means you learn to do it better, and the better you get it becomes a game on it's own how close can you get. Personally I ended up almost into the space station I had go in reverse quickly and just missed crashing into it. Other times I dropped within 5knm or less. So I am fine tuning it. Still a fun mini game in itself.
The game is what you make of it, it isn't just to get from point A to B, it is the journey there and what happens along the way. The op that said this part is silly is missing out on the exploration it will bring.
Calebe
I don't find it to hard core nor do I find super cruise to be silly, as it will play a huge part in the exploration part of the game. Currently your playing in systems where you know where planets are. You go exploring you have to find the planets. Go to them, map them, record them etc.... It isn't just a time sink, it is the way to travel to planets and points of interest.
To many today want instant travel, but fail to realize the journey is part of the fun, and what you may encounter on the way. As for over shooting, I rarely do it and when I do, by the time I turn back I am close so the over shoot doesn't delay me but actually was faster as the turn is quick and I drop out within 20km of the station or closer. So over shooting just means you learn to do it better, and the better you get it becomes a game on it's own how close can you get. Personally I ended up almost into the space station I had go in reverse quickly and just missed crashing into it. Other times I dropped within 5knm or less. So I am fine tuning it. Still a fun mini game in itself.
The game is what you make of it, it isn't just to get from point A to B, it is the journey there and what happens along the way. The op that said this part is silly is missing out on the exploration it will bring.
Calebe
Originally Posted by Celebe
I completely agree with you, but the point is that Kaelis33 is expressing a commonly held point of view that will affect sales.
Countless debates have taken place on these forums regarding PvP vs PvE, the "EVEification of the game", guild support, ownership of large structures, etc. I'm not arguing for a moment that these things are necessary or desirable for the game to be a success in its own right, or for it to realize the vision of the developers. However the market for online games is dominated by people who DO want precisely those features in a game, and who are NOT specifically looking to play a game in space.
I'd expect sales to be healthy and the game to sell well enough to be considered a critical, financial and popular success. Figures will probably be comparable to those of the "X" franchise, Freelancer, Homeworld, and other such titles in this niche genre, and it may even emerge as the preeminent game of its type.
I completely agree with you, but the point is that Kaelis33 is expressing a commonly held point of view that will affect sales.
Countless debates have taken place on these forums regarding PvP vs PvE, the "EVEification of the game", guild support, ownership of large structures, etc. I'm not arguing for a moment that these things are necessary or desirable for the game to be a success in its own right, or for it to realize the vision of the developers. However the market for online games is dominated by people who DO want precisely those features in a game, and who are NOT specifically looking to play a game in space.
I'd expect sales to be healthy and the game to sell well enough to be considered a critical, financial and popular success. Figures will probably be comparable to those of the "X" franchise, Freelancer, Homeworld, and other such titles in this niche genre, and it may even emerge as the preeminent game of its type.
Tar Stone
Banned
The flight sim guys will be all over this. They already have super cooled monster computers overclocked to sixty-gazillion megacycles to run FSX at 12 fps.
They already have track IR, big screens, joysticks & pedals, throttles with multiple axis.
They already have understanding wives and kids that don't see their dad when he's planning a flight to Kuala Lumpur.
The flight sim community tends to be very serious, co operative, patient, and loves attention to detail. And there are an awful lot of them supporting a thriving industry.
Some of them even have massive cockpits.
I can't imagine any self respecting flight simmer with a decent rig not getting himself a copy of ED and an Occulus.
edit - I don't actually care if it's a big commercial success or a cult classic with a brilliant community.
They already have track IR, big screens, joysticks & pedals, throttles with multiple axis.
They already have understanding wives and kids that don't see their dad when he's planning a flight to Kuala Lumpur.
The flight sim community tends to be very serious, co operative, patient, and loves attention to detail. And there are an awful lot of them supporting a thriving industry.
Some of them even have massive cockpits.
I can't imagine any self respecting flight simmer with a decent rig not getting himself a copy of ED and an Occulus.
edit - I don't actually care if it's a big commercial success or a cult classic with a brilliant community.
Ramireza
Banned
If they release it also for the consoles then maybe 1 - 2 millions in 3 years.
10 - 20 Millions is waaay to much, get real.
ED is a niche game in a niche genre. Blockbsuter Games like Bioshock Infinite or Tomb Raider sold about 5 - 6 mio copies in the last 18 month. One of the greatest RPG´s ever (Baldurs Gate 2) sold 2 Million copies from 2000 - 2005. I know its a while back, but dont forget that PC gamers where much more open for complcated, deep games in that time, this time are gone. Just think on all the whine threads that ED is to hard in the current state (LOL).
You realy should. Be sure that Exp1 und Exp2 will not released if ED is an comercial disaster.
10 - 20 Millions is waaay to much, get real
. ED is a niche game in a niche genre. Blockbsuter Games like Bioshock Infinite or Tomb Raider sold about 5 - 6 mio copies in the last 18 month. One of the greatest RPG´s ever (Baldurs Gate 2) sold 2 Million copies from 2000 - 2005. I know its a while back, but dont forget that PC gamers where much more open for complcated, deep games in that time, this time are gone. Just think on all the whine threads that ED is to hard in the current state (LOL).
You realy should. Be sure that Exp1 und Exp2 will not released if ED is an comercial disaster.
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what sales are we talking about? initial? when FPS expansion comes out? planetary landing expansion?
because those 2 expansions will attract different gamer type.
if we are talking about sales this year (so gamma), then i would expect (60k now are already) that they close this year close to 1m sales (which will bring FD more than 20m under publisher)
as for years to come then i expect ED will reach 10m mark eventually, it's future proof and new expansions are game changers really, so the game will look great and have many new game changing elements for next 4-7years.
p.s. i got into ED one gamer who played mainly rpg, and he is playing with track ball and just recently told me that he likes game a lot and didn't expect that, this is his first space sim and he doesn't even find that difficult, he said that every game must have a learning curve and difficulty because he likes challenges. so maybe ED is not mainstream but for challenging players it will be like fresh air
because those 2 expansions will attract different gamer type.
if we are talking about sales this year (so gamma), then i would expect (60k now are already) that they close this year close to 1m sales (which will bring FD more than 20m under publisher)
as for years to come then i expect ED will reach 10m mark eventually, it's future proof and new expansions are game changers really, so the game will look great and have many new game changing elements for next 4-7years.
p.s. i got into ED one gamer who played mainly rpg, and he is playing with track ball and just recently told me that he likes game a lot and didn't expect that, this is his first space sim and he doesn't even find that difficult, he said that every game must have a learning curve and difficulty because he likes challenges. so maybe ED is not mainstream but for challenging players it will be like fresh air
If they release it also for the consoles then maybe 1 - 2 millions in 3 years.
10 - 20 Millions is waaay to much, get real
ED is a niche game in a niche genre. Blockbsuter Games like Bioshock Infinite or Tomb Raider sold about 5 - 6 mio copies in the last 18 month. One of the greatest RPG´s ever (Baldurs Gate 2) sold 2 Million copies from 2000 - 2005. I know its a while back, but dont forget that PC gamers where much more open for complcated, deep games in that time, this time are gone. Just think on all the whine threads that ED is to hard in the current state (LOL).
Yeah, 2 million copies would be huge!
And this is the big reason the game needs to be on consoles. That's where all the gamers are. That could be another 3 million copies.
Erm, source? If anything the "market for online games" could as well seem dominated by CoD-clones players.
And even if this is true, why should Frontier go out of their way to accomodate that playerbase? So far nothing at all shows people won't want to try something new.