As Black said the only thing that makes sense is a new game title. For the fans it hurts to hear that. But that would be good business. And FDev have already done this by not investing in Elite over the past 2+ years but instead invested in new titles.
FDev have stated pretty clearly that the 'New Era' DLC will be an 'in-game' release, not a new title. So both y'all's thinking must have a kink in it somewhere
What does 'The Next Era' contain?
The Next Era update will be in-game content...
The significant flaw here in your hypothesis, and with the diehard fans hope, is that is doesn't make good business sense to invest in this four year old game. Think about what this costs to deliver: if there really is 100 developers working for two years that's easily in the $20-$25M cost range and likely more. Obviously FDev would want to see a decent profit so sales would have to be in the $60M or greater. How much do you think this DLC will sell for?
I think you said you like to see facts. So do these facts add up and make any sense for your hypothesis? Would any developer invest $25M in updating the engine in a four year old game - six or seven year old game by the time of the change - and expect it to be profitable? Umm... No.
OK, taking your $20-$25m costs for 2 years as a reasonable generic benchmark (which I do, given
about $10K a man-month seems to be something of an
industry norm). Let me flip it around for you.
Why wouldn't a company take a measured punt on this proposition?:
Add in potential factors like:
And there seems to be fertile ground there for the title still. Decent attachment rates for past paid DLC, cash in reserve to tide over investment phases, past success from expanding to new platforms etc.
You've convinced yourself that there's no reason to invest serious cash in the current title, and poor odds of a decent return. FDev, from their public statements, seem to have a different take
