General / Off-Topic Recycle or Die! (the elite environmental thread)

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"Oh good, then we agree that anecdote doesn't prove squat. "

No we don't, a yes it does.

"New evidence in this year’s report highlights that beside conflicts, climate variability and extremes are also a key force behind the recent rise in global hunger. They are also one of the leading causes of severe food crises."

-FAO, 2018

http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition/en/

Edit: I repeat, What would it take to convince you that science is right about the climate and sustainability?
 
Hunger causes conflicts, so that adds up, in a positive feedback loop, where "positive" means bad. Add climate change to that and you'll have a furnace.

You still haven't answered my question, and you're both intelligent and clever, so I would really like like an answer.
 
Hunger causes conflicts, so that adds up, in a positive feedback loop, where "positive" means bad. Add climate change to that and you'll have a furnace.

You still haven't answered my question, and you're both intelligent and clever, so I would really like like an answer.

No, because you are cherry picking and there are too many confounds.
That's why a global lens is appropriate for climate change.


It's a strawman, lol!

Where did I suggest otherwise?
 
Compare your earlier arguments with the quote from FAO:

"Climate change may very well increase crop yields.
You do know how CO2 affects plant growth, right?"

"In fact a warming trend would likely increase their yields."

"Again, you have not established anything is getting worse in the first place.
Quite the contrary, the world is steadily becoming a safer, more educated, and more prosperous.
Crop yields are at record highs. "
 
Compare your earlier arguments with the quote from FAO:

1 The FAO isn't "science" and you are cherry picking and misrepresenting their data.
Nowhere do they state that the global crop yields are decreasing.
It's also a very short timeline with confounds you are ignoring.

"Climate change may very well increase crop yields.
You do know how CO2 affects plant growth, right?"

"In fact a warming trend would likely increase their yields."
All true, you do know Denmark is dark and cold, right?
Worldwide crop yields are increasing, that is a fact too.

"Again, you have not established anything is getting worse in the first place.
Quite the contrary, the world is steadily becoming a safer, more educated, and more prosperous.
Crop yields are at record highs. "

Those are all true statements.
 
...it is nonetheless very clear that in recent decades the presence of major life-taking famines has diminished significantly and abruptly as compared to earlier eras.

Famines have always occurred as the result of a complex mix of ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors,3 but the developments of the modern industrial era have generally reduced the salience of natural constraints in causing famine. This includes many developments discussed in other pages of Our World in Data, such as the increasing availability of food per person, made possible through increasing agricultural yields; improvements in healthcare and sanitation; increased trade; reduced food prices and food price volatility; as well as reductions in the number of people living in extreme poverty. Over time, famines have become increasingly “man-made”-phenomena, becoming more clearly attributable to political causes, including non-democratic government and conflict. Paradoxically, over the course of the 20th century famine was virtually eradicated from most of the world, whilst over the same period there occurred some of the worst famines in recorded history. This is because many of the major famines of the 20th century were the outcome of wars or totalitarian regimes.

Thus, overall, we can see in the rapid decline of famine mortality one of the great accomplishments of our era, representing technological progress, economic development and the spread of stable democracies. Viewed in this light, however, it also serves to highlight the appalling continued presence of famines which are, in the modern world, entirely man-made.


 
When the temperature increases the amount of energy stored in the atmosphere increases. That means more extreme weather.

And yet there's no data indicating an increase in extreme weather events. Even the IPCC says so. There's plenty of predictions of increases in extreme weather, but people predict a lot of stuff a lot of times. Only one outcome can be true.

The main issue with increased extreme weather is that it becomes too unpredictable, and that is bad for food production overall.

Well, yes. But this basically brings me to the point that I've been making all along. Instead of trying to magically stop extreme weather (which simply can't be done) by concentrating on our CO2 emissions we're far better off building the infrastructure that increases our tolerance to those sorts of events. Massive and far reaching de-industrialisation does nothing but guarantee worse outcomes for everyone.

I agree to a certain degree but people have to wake up. Right now the major issue on everyone's mind is the climate. However, that is far from the only issue we face. A Swedish group of scientist have made a list of issues. Each are potentially a threat humanity, called Planetary Boundaries...

So yes "Hyperbole is your enemy", but I honestly do not try that. Instead I try to point out that the situation is far more critical than most people think. Furthermore, there are powerful interests in not doing anything...

Honestly I could do like the rest of my generation and go "Who cares. It's too late anyhow", but then I see a kid and think "It makes me sad to know, that you, with a large certainty, won't live to become old, but instead you will die because of famine".
Yeah, hyperbole. I'm not sure you actually understand why the sort of rhetoric you're spreading is so counter-productive. Read the bits I've quoted. Show me something credible that might have even a vague change of justifying the claim that a child born today in Denmark is going to die of famine.

It's simply an outrageous claim and, unless there's some drastic piece of knowledge that I'm not aware of, utterly without merit - and now colours pretty much anything you say on the topic in my eyes. Think "The Boy Who Cried Wolf".

However, you don't need to do that to get an outline of things to come. Instead you can focus on some of the things we know for sure, and know the interactions of. Like no food, no life...

I hate the idea about "living under a rock", and honestly I personally don't. I'm not sure that it's necessary either, but the way we behave currently is bound to end in tears. Error bars and chaos won't change that. If something will change it, it has to be ourselves.
Unvalidated model outputs mean nothing.

Validated model outputs are potential scenarios bound by the variable inputs, model constraints and margin of error in the model/s. If whatever models you've created are projecting "No food, no life" within a generation - I'd respectfully suggest that they haven't been validated.

I repeat, What would it take to convince you that science is right about the climate and sustainability?

"Science is right about..."? Even asking the question illustrates that you don't understand what science actually is. This is a not very well disguised appeal to authority - a logical fallacy. Science is a process, not an entity.

Do you think this single body known as science has a single, coherent view, opinion and future projection of climate and sustainability? I assure you that it most certainly does not.
 
Leading Russian agricultural consulting firms SovEcon and IKAR have cut their estimates for the country’s 2018 grain harvest due to cold wet conditions




Oh noes!
 
@Bob

Our World in Data uses FAO as source, and FAO get their information from science.

@Talarin

I know Philosophy of Science from ancient times up to now, and I know Popper and Kuhn. My personal favorite was Feyerabend, but that can't come as much of a surprise I presume? :)

You also know the term consensus.

"Unvalidated model outputs mean nothing."

What exactly do you mean?

"It's simply an outrageous claim and, unless there's some drastic piece of knowledge that I'm not aware of "

Trust me, there a lot to learn for both of us, and I'm pretty sure you already know that.

Edit: Do you have any argument against the theory that more energy in the atmosphere causes more extreme weather?

2nd edit: And Bob, you're arguing against yourself:

“Citing the probability of poor crop yields due to the climate conditions, SovEcon reduced its estimate for Russia’s 2018 spring wheat crop to 19.1 million tonnes from 22.2 million tonnes previously.

The key revision reason is very unfavorable weather in Siberia and the Urals in May. Too cold and too wet – poor yield is on cards for the region,”
 
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@Bob

Our World in Data uses FAO as source, and FAO get their information from science.

And you are ignoring what they say in context.




2nd edit: And Bob, you're arguing against yourself:

“Citing the probability of poor crop yields due to the climate conditions, SovEcon reduced its estimate for Russia’s 2018 spring wheat crop to 19.1 million tonnes from 22.2 million tonnes previously.

The key revision reason is very unfavorable weather in Siberia and the Urals in May. Too cold and too wet – poor yield is on cards for the region,”




Nope, try again.
I actually am not.


You are just missing the point, lol...
 
Errr... Russia does not have a good history, for 'improving and predicting' agricultural growth.

The 5 year plan?
Lysenkoism?

Just a couple of examples.


Right, but that's not because of too much sun/warmth.

Just like the bulk of the Africa situation.

But it stands to reason many areas would benefit from a warming trend, vis a vis crop yields.
 
@Arry
Yes that was the time people started eating each other IIRC. The was also the not so Great Leap Forward.

@Bob and Talarin
You do not seem to understand that the World is developing exponentially, almost where ever you look. In that case you're not alone.

It's a long video but I have fast forwarded for you, so give this guy just five minutes of your life. He deserves it:

Source: https://youtu.be/sI1C9DyIi_8?t=1334
 
I've made the point that it's an untenable population problem since my first posts in this thread, LOL!

You do not seem to understand that your straw arguments are only in your head.
 
Right, but that's not because of too much sun/warmth.

Just like the bulk of the Africa situation.

But it stands to reason many areas would benefit from a warming trend, vis a vis crop yields.
Ok, you asked. Climate change and therefore; global warming, is NOT the issue with growing crops. As you say; it will probably increase yields. However: Climate change and Global warming; DOES create extreme weather conditions. More wind, more water in the atmosphere; thus, larger and more destructive storms and more extreme weather day to day changes, happening, more often. This WILL cause harvests to fail and crops; no matter how good their potential yields are, to be wiped out etc. etc.
 
@Arry
Yes that was the time people started eating each other IIRC. The was also the not so Great Leap Forward.

@Bob and Talarin
You do not seem to understand that the World is developing exponentially, almost where ever you look. In that case you're not alone.

It's a long video but I have fast forwarded for you, so give this guy just five minutes of your life. He deserves it:

Source: https://youtu.be/sI1C9DyIi_8?t=1334
Yep: It was a great time, to be a human.
 
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