What would FDev do if Betelgeuse goes "pop"?

[PS4] Filthymick420

[PS4] Filthymick420
Maolagin said:
I believe the commonly-quoted figure of 100,000 years comes from this paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/1406.3143

The figure mainly derives from fitting the star's observed properties to computed evolutionary models. The best fit indicates that Betelgeuse has farily recently started burning helium in a shell around the accumulating carbon-oxygen core, which is the event that triggers the onset of the red supergiant phase. That model further predicts that it will take about 100,000 years for sufficient mass to accumulate to trigger the onset of carbon burning. The supernova would follow a short time after that (how short isn't addressed in the paper, but IIRC on the order of centuries at most). The uncertainly stems from the inability to say precisely how recently helium shell burning began, but it sounds like cross-checking with alternate models mostly yielded larger numbers than 100,000 years, not shorter.

My take on the recent dimming: Betelgeuse experiences huge "star spots" caused by coherent convection cells - the largest noted in that paper took up nearly one-third of its visible surface and contributed over 20% of its total luminosity. It's certainly possible for an unusually dark spot to have formed on the side facing us, and it's hard to say how long such a thing could last. If it is a star spot, I'd expect confirmation in the coming weeks-to-months, as surely someone will be applying for time on a large interferometric instrument to try and resolve spatial features on the surface (Betelgeuse is one of the few stars with a large enough apparent size that this is possible).



No, that's not how any of this works.
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Yes it is. An educated guess is still a guess. Nothing can be PROVEN 100% factual accuracy. Its just theoretical speculation supported by mathematical equations. How many things have we 'known' in the past because we had 'evidence' to support it that turned out wrong. Having an open mind is a cornerstone of scientific exploration, but seeking specific results finds what you want to find. We dont even know our oceans as well as some of us think we 'know' about space.
 

Maolagin

M
Filthymick420 said:
Yes it is. An educated guess is still a guess. Nothing can be PROVEN 100% factual accuracy. Its just theoretical speculation supported by mathematical equations. How many things have we 'known' in the past because we had 'evidence' to support it that turned out wrong. Having an open mind is a cornerstone of scientific exploration, but seeking specific results finds what you want to find. We dont even know our oceans as well as some of us think we 'know' about space.
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This is tedious.

I have in the past engaged with such sophism from children, because they were tuition-paying students and it was my job to help them think critically about science. You are most likely an adult, and highly unlikely to be paying tuition to my current employer. While I encourage you to stop parroting vaguely philosophical soundbites you heard somewhere and adopt the habits of critical thinking instead, it is not my job to facilitate that journey for you. Blocked.
 

Captain Willard

Captain Willard
FD should let slip 4 fleet carrier's full of new pilots are heading there and watch gankers carrier's be slagged in the forth coming shock wave chasing them.
Disinformation at it's best.
 
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Orvidius

Orvidius
Factabulous said:
Now we know the reason for the delays to the New Era - we're getting a Betelgeuse explosion, and they're waiting for it to happen IRL ;)

(Then we can laugh at all those who thought it was legs, bases, or atmos planets - the fools!)
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It all makes sense now!

:)
 

Maolagin

M
Factabulous said:
Now we know the reason for the delays to the New Era - we're getting a Betelgeuse explosion, and they're waiting for it to happen IRL ;)
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By golly, I think you're on to them! After all, just imagine how much egg they'd have on their face if they replaced Betelgeuse with a black hole, then saw it explode into a neutron star a few months later. Unacceptable!
 

Linnunrata

Linnunrata
GrandAdmiralThrawn said:
I just registered with the [SNEWS] neutrino alert system, because... hey, why not. If something does happen, it'd be nice to receive a notification a few hours before the light arrives. ;)
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And then
10062825844_6ddf43ef55_n.jpg
 

Maolagin

M
Orvidius said:
Sadly, I think that's the most likely scenario. However I'd love to see a "Betelgeuse Nebula". Alas, it will never happen. :D
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We'll just file that suggestion alongside "move Eta Carinae into its own nebula" and "change the exclusion zone logic from OR to AND like it should have been".

Who knows, maybe next year they'll declare a Very New Era Indeed and pull the trigger on re-spinning Stellar Forge!
 

Maolagin

M
Factabulous said:
... and 10 minutes later someone will publish a paper about G2 falling into Sag A* and someone will demand they do it again ...
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Well, it certainly wouldn't suck if they applied five years of hindsight and made Stellar Forge 2.0 capable of accommodating minor updates like that without destroying and recreating the whole galaxy.
 

Factabulous

Factabulous
Maolagin said:
Well, it certainly wouldn't suck if they applied five years of hindsight and made Stellar Forge 2.0 capable of accommodating minor updates like that without destroying and recreating the whole galaxy.
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I guess they can assign a group of devs to keep up with the global astronomy findings - they can work in the same room alongside the team that JWE use for all the demands to include any paper on how dinosaurs looked, or are imagined in films, and the PZ team who are expected to integrate every animal behaviour ever. Life on the immersion team is never easy :D
 

Noobilite

Noobilite
Just found this in the wiki. According to this the lore said it did this already. Or is this different than supernove. And why isn't this represented in game? Or was this added to the wiki in regards to this?

elite-dangerous.fandom.com

Elite Timeline

This is the official fictional timeline of the first three games in the Elite series (Elite, Frontier: Elite II, Frontier: First Encounters). This timeline is not canon in Elite Dangerous. The Elite Dangerous timeline has many similarities and differs from the prequels. Invention of the Rocket...
elite-dangerous.fandom.com elite-dangerous.fandom.com

3296
  • A Phekdan government is formed, and the system joins the AIS. The Federation and Empire try and take Phekda when it is discovered that the system is ripe for military fuel production. Skillful diplomacy and a show of force by the AJN repels the attack with little bloodshed;
  • James Winston is captured by Federation forces and held in prison on Boston Base, Barnard's Star. This creates a massive protest by Alliance citizens and the military. Winston's nephew finds himself harassed by the Federals due to his presence on the station at the time of his uncle's capture;
  • Membership in 'The Cause' increases exponentially as a result of Winston's alleged kidnapping by the Federation and imprisonment;
  • 'The Cause' makes its official base on Davies Earth in the Quator system and aquires the Long Range Cruiser Azure;

  • Deep space probes return with news that the star, Betelgeuse, went supernova. The Alliance Science Council dispatches hundreds of deep space probes to study the nova. Meanwhile, a second LRA-object is discovered. Considerably more caution is taken examining this object. It still yields few secrets, and eventually disappears with a number of deep space probes attached to it.
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Sapyx

Sapyx
Heavy Johnson said:
... or most likely they won't change anything, and let the ED universe be a slightly alternate universe from our own. Problem solved.
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The ED timeline is already slightly different to our own. In Elite lore (which was written in 1990), the first planet outside the solar system, around Proxima Centauri, wasn't discovered until 2038 and it was discovered by spectroscopic detection of water; read the system description for the Alpha Centauri system and you'll see this particular piece of lore survived the crossover to ED, though the wording has been slightly changed to try to bring the ED universe closer to reality. Because in-real-life development of planet-detecting technologies and techniques have meant that we've already discovered thousands of exoplanets, including one planet very much like Eden around Proxima Centauri, before 2020.

Noobilite said:
Just found this in the wiki. According to this the lore said it did this already. Or is this different than supernove. And why isn't this represented in game? Or was this added to the wiki in regards to this?

elite-dangerous.fandom.com

Elite Timeline

This is the official fictional timeline of the first three games in the Elite series (Elite, Frontier: Elite II, Frontier: First Encounters). This timeline is not canon in Elite Dangerous. The Elite Dangerous timeline has many similarities and differs from the prequels. Invention of the Rocket...
elite-dangerous.fandom.com elite-dangerous.fandom.com
Click to expand...

Sorry, but that's really just fan-fiction, written prior to the launch of ED. Not official, as it states.
 
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