General / Off-Topic The safest place

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Sir.Tj

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Sir.Tj
Please no political discussion folks, I know it's hard at the moment but....
 

Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
Ian Skippy said:
As a rough estimate of the absolute worst-case scenario, I'd assume that 70% gets infected in total, 10% of all infected needs hospitalization to survive, and 50% of infections happen during peak. For France that would mean 67 million people * 0.7 * 0.1 *0.5= almost 2.5 million people needing hospitalization. France has, AFAIK, about 3000 beds available. This what I consider the true pessimist scenario. What you gave is a 'very bad but not that improbable'.
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Yes and in any case when I hear Merkel saying that between 60-80% of the German population will be infected, the American Senate between 70-150 million Americans infected, and France 60%+, I will not be surprised if the damage is very significant in the end
 

Ian Skippy

Ian Skippy
Meanwhile in the Netherlands the mood is slowly changing on discussion boards. Yesterday's speech (in short: it'll be tough, we have a plan, but we need all of us to work together!) lifted the spirits. Today brings the more clinical and less flowery business of projections and calculations. If the plan works, we're looking at a projected 50k casualties. And that is assumed to be a good outcome.
 

Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
Ian Skippy said:
Meanwhile in the Netherlands the mood is slowly changing on discussion boards. Yesterday's speech (in short: it'll be tough, we have a plan, but we need all of us to work together!) lifted the spirits. Today brings the more clinical and less flowery business of projections and calculations. If the plan works, we're looking at a projected 50k casualties. And that is assumed to be a good outcome.
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This situation is dramatic for Europe and the other continents.

The experts, politician, journalists in France say that we must prepare for the arrival of a wave of a tsunami.
 

Stigbob

Stigbob
Patrick_68000 said:
Yes and in any case when I hear Merkel saying that between 60-80% of the German population will be infected, the American Senate between 70-150 million Americans infected, and France 60%+, I will not be surprised if the damage is very significant in the end
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60-80% isnt that bad provided its not all at once so the system doesn't collapse under the weight of those needing care.

Eventually we'll probably all be exposed since some reliable types are saying it could easily become another seasonal flu and flare up every year.
 

Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
Stigbob said:
60-80% isnt that bad provided its not all at once so the system doesn't collapse under the weight of those needing care.

Eventually we'll probably all be exposed since some reliable types are saying it could easily become another seasonal flu and flare up every year.
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Yes I heard this possibility of evolution toward seasonal influenza (also fatal every year in this influenza family).
 

Ian Skippy

Ian Skippy
Not a very fun read, but important all the same: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and
deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
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lysan

lysan
Time to circle the wagons, my brother-in-law is a medic, we got a nice stock of medical equipment because I’m weird and made a small cabin with all the basics. I hate to be right but right now I am very pleased I can support all 8 of us for a very long period, I closed the private road to our place, and we will not leave the homestead, the Ham radio is now online 24/7 and we are in contact with our neighbors all the time. Stay safe out there, stay healthy.
 

jasonbarron

jasonbarron
There's so many worse case scenarios being thrown out by people, in terms of mortality rates and the eventual death toll. That kind of thinking is really jumping the gun in my view, bordering on the reactionary. I know that it's tempting to just break out the calculator and start doing the math, but we don't have even close to the amount of data required to reach a cut and dried conclusion that it's likely to be "X amount of deaths." It won't be the worse case scenario. If that was inevitable we'd have seen far more deaths in China, instead of strong evidence that they're slowly returning to normal economic activity without anywhere near the somewhat more hysterical projections.

The damage this is doing to our economies is going to have a far FAR more significant impact on the world when the smoke clears and the dust settles down
 

Stigbob

Stigbob
jasonbarron said:
There's so many worse case scenarios being thrown out by people, in terms of mortality rates and the eventual death toll. That kind of thinking is really jumping the gun in my view, bordering on the reactionary. I know that it's tempting to just break out the calculator and start doing the math, but we don't have even close to the amount of data required to reach a cut and dried conclusion that it's likely to be "X amount of deaths." It won't be the worse case scenario. If that was inevitable we'd have seen far more deaths in China, instead of strong evidence that they're slowly returning to normal economic activity without anywhere near the somewhat more hysterical projections.

The damage this is doing to our economies is going to have a far FAR more significant impact on the world when the smoke clears and the dust settles down
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The issue is in the west we live very sheltered lives and can't cope with going without for a bit so it doesn't take much to push our societies over the edge.

Say they close schools that's 20% of the workforce gone on childcare another 20% self isolate and another 20% get told their business needs to close down. With 40% left will food supplies get disrupted leading to panic buying leading to supply problems and so on. We don't know how it will pan out.

The virus itself might not be the biggest threat in countries with their vital services all geared to no excess capacity in all things from food to medical care. Excess capacity is inefficient we've been moving away from it for decades.
 

jasonbarron

jasonbarron
Stigbob said:
The issue is in the west we live very sheltered lives and can't cope with going without for a bit so it doesn't take much to push our societies over the edge.

Say they close schools that's 20% of the workforce gone on childcare another 20% self isolate and another 20% get told their business needs to close down. With 40% left will food supplies get disrupted leading to panic buying leading to supply problems and so on. We don't know how it will pan out.

The virus itself might not be the biggest threat in countries with their vital services all geared to no excess capacity in all things from food to medical care. Excess capacity is inefficient we've been moving away from it for decades.
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So you agree with me. I thought this day would never come!
 

Ian Skippy

Ian Skippy
jasonbarron said:
It won't be the worse case scenario. If that was inevitable we'd have seen far more deaths in China, instead of strong evidence that they're slowly returning to normal economic activity without anywhere near the somewhat more hysterical projections.
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Well, yeah. That is why they are called worst-ca scenarios...
 
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