General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Ian Skippy]

Well, if it was a "disappointing 2", it wouldn't be classified a CAT 3 Biohazard (technically it's a CAT 4).
And when was the last time over 1 Billion (!) people worldwide - tendency increasing - have ever been placed under lockdown? With all Economies being shutdown?

Remember if enginered - it's a Prototype at best. A science project then, which got loose. That'd make it an unfinished thing - luckily.
Its missing broad lethality is one of the only two remaining details that prevent it from being a global catastrophe of unparalleled scale. Something we should be darn happy about.

• more than sufficient disruptive potential? Check. Should be obvious.
• sufficient lethality to overwhelm even the best global healthcare Systems if not ultra-aggressively countered (i.e. massive lockdowns, entire economies be damned)? Check
• highly resident? Check, extremely unusual for a Virus and hallmark of any military Biological or Chemical compound. With upto 9 days (record observed), it's unique for a Virus AFAIK
• contagious? Check, its genetic modifications make it by 3 to 4 orders of magnitude more contagious than ordinary/common Viruses, acting like a highly effective booster into the host

[...]

For a Virus, nothing I'd call "disappointing". Far from it. I'd call that "damn dangerous" instead, causing entire continents to be turned upside down... but that's just me.

Yeah, that is great and all, but we have actual classification scales for viruses based on actual statistics. And when I say that it is a '2', I mean that it is a '2'. That is not my personal opinion, nor is it contingent on the opinion of anybody else. Have a peek at this:

The MicrobeScope – Infectious Diseases in Context — Information is Beautiful

How deadly & infectious are the major diseases? A visualised ranking of Bird Flu, Ebola, SARS, Malaria and other infectious diseases.

informationisbeautiful.net

As you can see, COVID19 is neither very contagious nor is it very deadly, relatively speaking. For comparison, avian flu is about 60x more deadly and Dengue Fever scores 5x higher on the contagiousness scale (which is based on R0, so the effect is exponential! and far beyond 5x more contagious). To put that into numbers: after five 'spreading contacts' a single C19 patient would result in 2^5=32 infected. With Dengue fever that would be 11^5=161.000 infected. Notice the difference? Now, to re-iterate: this is not by opinion. These are facts. There is nothing particularly impressive about this virus at all.

And if people would understand this a bit better maybe they would then also begin to understand why the scientific community has been so adamant about needing proper protocols and institutions in place to prevent and contain this kind of crap. Because this is not a Chinese bio-weapon, and there will be far more problematic viruses in the future. This is not a special unique event. This is a pretty mediocre virus, and thank god for that. Because right now we have a chance to mitigate the damage by going completely balls-to-the-walls on this little .

Look at what has happened to Italy. Now picture what would have happened if this virus would have been 10x more contagious (remember, R0 is exponential) and 'only' 10x more deadly. That is easily within the realm of possibility through normal evolution of viruses RNA and it would have completely wiped out modern civilization from the entire globe.

We are currently facing the worst crisis since WW2 in the west. We need to go all-out the coming months. But we are still playing on 'easy mode'. And we do well to remember that and stop pretending this is ulta-extreme-china-superweapon.

 

[Xenith]

Stating they're more at risk (they are) doesn't mean they deserve death more than someone else (they don't).

Yet by dismissing the virus as dangerous only to these groups of people, we are in danger of condemning them to death all the same. When the health service is inevitably swamped, who will they prioritise?

 

[Ian Skippy]

Yet by dismissing the virus as dangerous only to these groups of people, we are in danger of condemning them to death all the same. When the health service is inevitably swamped, who will they prioritise?

Considering the list of at-risk conditions includes obesity and diabetes, those two alone already mean half the US adult population is 'at-risk'. I would not put too much stock on that concept the coming months.

 

[Phisto Sobanii]

Yet by dismissing the virus as dangerous only to these groups of people, we are in danger of condemning them to death all the same. When the health service is inevitably swamped, who will they prioritise?

The guy you so bravely stomped on wasn't doing that. He was simply explaining why the perception is what it is.

And the health services will do the right thing: triage. Better gird yourself for that.

 

[Xenith]

Considering the list of at-risk conditions includes obesity and diabetes, those two alone already mean half the US adult population is 'at-risk'. I would not put too much stock on that concept the coming months.

I have asthma, so I'm also in a fairly large at risk group. I've also had pneumonia before, and let me tell you, it's nothing to sneer at whatsoever! I certainly have no desire to repeat the experience.

 

[Phisto Sobanii]

I have asthma, so I'm also in a fairly large at risk group. I've also had pneumonia before, and let me tell you, it's nothing to sneer at whatsoever! I certainly have no desire to repeat the experience.

I've got asthma too. So much coughing!

 

[Deleted member 38366]

This is not a special unique event. This is a pretty mediocre virus, and thank god for that. Because right now we have a chance to mitigate the damage by going completely balls-to-the-walls on this little .

Look at what has happened to Italy. Now picture what would have happened if this virus would have been 10x more contagious (remember, R0 is exponential) and 'only' 10x more deadly. That is easily within the realm of possibility through normal evolution of viruses RNA and it would have completely wiped out modern civilization from the entire globe.

We are currently facing the worst crises since WW2 in the west. We need to go all-out the coming months. But we are still playing on 'easy mode'. And we do well to remember that and stop pretending this is ulta-extreme-china-superweapon.

IMHO there's a tiny logical flaw to that classification : its lethality can only be assessed after the fact.
It has just gotten started in Europe and the US. The population-rich Pakistan/India? Early stages, going to get really interesting there in the upcoming months.
Might want to re-check these figures in 6 months when the death toll has reached entirely different dimensions and the fallout (hopefully) has started to settle.

And if this was not a special unusual event... heck then I don't know that is.
In my lifetime, I can't recall any such event. The heads of state can't recall ever seeing anything like it. Very seasoned Virologists can't recall ever seeing anything of such magnitude during their entire careers.

Due to that unique and special (pun, sorry) nature of this event, indeed international politicians around the globe call it the worst crisis since WW2. Go figure, true words for all I know.

I never said it was a proven chinese "superweapon". Can't prove it. I merely pointed out it's possible. And even if it was, it clearly isn't a finished project.

So please rather ignore it and move on instead of being quick to call things "crap".
Perfectly fine to agree to disagree, I merely pointed to a few things.
When I said "make of it what you wish" I meant it. That's what Data Points are for - for personal assessment.

I personally feel I'm way better off protecting me and my sick mother treating it as a high-grade Biohazard. Better safe than sorry.
I'm pretty sure (and by their own words they do) people in Wuhan, Tehran, Madrid, Lombardy or Milan would give everything if they could dial back time and treat it with that same, exceptional caution.

Bottom line is : we (as in : we all) are involuntarily the "boots on the ground" in this global battle. Every single individual. Whatever it is or where it comes from - we have to deal with it. And being careful and rather taking extra precautions (assuming a worst-case instead of a "only a mild thing" scenario) seems by far the most sensible thing to do.

 

[Ian Skippy]

I've got asthma too. So much coughing!

You guys must be popular in the supermarket.

 

[Phisto Sobanii]

You guys must be popular in the supermarket.

I've not had that experience yet but I'm prepared for it. Up to and including having the cops called on me.

 

[Xenith]

I've got asthma too. So much coughing!

I only really notice mine these days if I'm stressed or unwell. No coughing with mine, just a tight chest sometimes.

 

[Ian Skippy]

IMHO there's a tiny logical flaw to that classification : its lethality can only be assessed after the fact.
It has just gotten started in Europe and the US. Pakistan/India? Early stages.
Might want to re-check these figures in 6 months when the death toll has reached entirely different dimensions and the fallout (hopefully) has started to settle.

Again, no. That is simply not true, factually. Yes, we can argue about whether it is 0.2, 0.5, 1 or 2% mortality rate when treated. We do know for absolute fact that the mortality is not 60%, which is what other viruses in the wild have 'accomplished'. We dont need to wait six months for that, it is already established. All that can change now is the 'untreated mortality'rate, and we already know the upper limit of that too: +-10%.

And if this was not a special unusual event... heck then I don't know that is.
In my lifetime, I can't recall any such event. The heads of state can recall ever seeing anything like it. Very seasoned Virologists can't recall ever seeing anything of such magnitude during their entire careers.

Due to that unique and special (pun, sorry) nature of this event, indeed international politicians around the globe call it the worst crisis since WW2. Go figure, true words for all I know.

Absolutely. This is a very special crisis. It is not a special virus. So we either accept both facts for what they are, and figure out a way forward, or we continue to kid ourselves until we are caught unprepared by a serious virus. And then we won't have the luxury of 'waiting a few months to figure out the mortality rate'. For fun; when you combine the contagiousness of Dengue Fever with the mortality of Avian Flu, Ebola or some such the models are pretty clear: the globe is nearly flattened in a week. That is what a truly 'serious virus' looks like. We are now 3-4 months in and have 16k confirmed death. Yes, it will massively increase. But the fact these are the stats right now should tell you how much worse it could be.

I never said it was a proven chinese "superweapon". Can't prove it. I merely pointed out it's possible. And even if it was, it clearly isn't a finished project.

Except that the best experts the West have to offer looked at it and category claim with great certainty that it is NOT a lab-made virus. Anyone still going on about this, unless they have great expertise in this field and actual new data to offer, is simply ignorant. No offense intended, but lets speak plainly here.

I personally feel I'm way better off protecting me and my sick mother treating it as a high-grade Biohazard. Better safe than sorry.
I'm pretty sure (and by their own words they do) people in Wuhan, Tehran, Madrid, Lombardy or Milan would give everything if they could dial back time and treat it with that same, exceptional caution.

No disagreement there.[/quote]

 

[Phisto Sobanii]

I only really notice mine these days if I'm stressed or unwell. No coughing with mine, just a tight chest sometimes.

I get a bit of both but it's relatively well controlled. I've got Type 1 Diabetes too, so that's fun! Got that on lockdown though so from what I hear, I'm not in any more danger as a healthy person.

 

[Ian Skippy]

I've not had that experience yet but I'm prepared for it. Up to and including having the cops called on me.

Know someone with seasonal allergies. Its a hail mary every time she goes shopping, people at times got close to physically remove her from the store. :/

 

[Xenith]

I get a bit of both but it's relatively well controlled. I've got Type 1 Diabetes too, so that's fun! Got that on lockdown though so from what I hear, I'm not in any more danger as a healthy person.

Will you be staying at home? My employer has given me 12 weeks off work, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't relieved!

 

[Ian Skippy]

Will you be staying at home? My employer has given me 12 weeks off work, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't relieved!

Aren't you from the UK and he from the US? That should probably answer the question whether he gest to stay at home for 12 weeks...

 

[Phisto Sobanii]

Will you be staying at home? My employer has given me 12 weeks off work, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't relieved!

I am not. See below!

Aren't you from the UK and he from the US? That should probably answer the question whether he gest to stay at home for 12 weeks...

Literally started a new job today. It's with a small office that deals with online sales. After being out of work since August, it's something I had to do.

If you all need tips on staying busy... let me know!

 

[Ian Skippy]

Literally started a new job today. It's with a small office that deals with online sales. After being out of work since August, it's something I had to do.

Well, congrats in a sense I guess, best of luck!

If you all need tips on staying busy... let me know!

Nah, I'm good.

Spoiler

 

[Phisto Sobanii]

Well, congrats in a sense I guess, best of luck!



Nah, I'm good.

Spoiler

I have all of the jealous. Oof that's a nice set up. Once I get a bit of cash I'm thinking about picking up the bass again.

 

[Xenith]

Literally started a new job today. It's with a small office that deals with online sales. After being out of work since August, it's something I had to do.

Congrats on the new job, I hope your work place is at least taking some precautions!

 

[Phisto Sobanii]

Congrats on the new job, I hope your work place is at least taking some precautions!

They are. All things considered, it's not a bad decision.