General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Morbad]

Obviously I'm no expert but jebus H cristi that's a HELL of alot of cosincidences don't you all think?

I think you're mostly seeing connections where none are implied.

The only real coincidence here is that there was a virology lab in close proximity to the first reported cases, and that does seem to be just that...coincidental.

Scientists are baffled by how FAST this thing mutated to infect humans....maybe it didn't mutate after all.

The article you've linked to feature an argument about whether certain forms of bat SARS would even need to mutate to infect humans and doesn't imply that that SARS-CoV-2 was in any way engineered.

edit quote from the article: "Simon Wain-Hobson, a virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, points out that the researchers have created a novel virus that “grows remarkably well” in human cells. “If the virus escaped, nobody could predict the trajectory,” he says. "

That viruses are created and manipulated for research purposes is not news and SHC014-CoV isn't SARS-CoV-2. Indeed, the altered/constructed SHC014-CoV variant looks like it's constructed because it's built from previously known material. SARS-CoV2 is not, which is strong evidence that it's natural. It also appears to have less affinity for human ACE2 than the 2003 strain of SARS-CoV, which wouldn't make any sense if it were meant to be a weapon, or even part of ‘gain-of-function’ research mentioned in that article.

 

[Silure]

All I know is that if you want stop overpopulation you shouldn't make something the forces people to be locked up with their better halves, for weeks. We all know what this will lead to.

I had a bit of a Freudian slip with that one!

 

[lysan]

I had a bit of a Freudian slip with that one!

Was more thinking of....

 

[askavir]

In Portugal police had to block highways, bridges and main roads in order to prevent massive hordes of people trying to use their lockdown "vacations" to go to the beaches and weekend leisure trips. Thousands of fines were issued to drivers during this weekend that had no valid justification to be travelling. Some were arrested for evading the lockdown twice(?) in the same weekend, including an old woman who kept going to the same mall even though police had already taken her back home twice.

I'm increasingly wondering why am I giving a fart about other people's safety by staying at home for weeks or months (who knows), if themselves don't seem to care one iota. But then I remember that while those people are still in great number, they're still the minority.

Thousands of quarantine evaders tried to cross the bridge over the Tagus river in Lisbon to reach the south side beaches, but were cleverly ambushed by the police and were forced to turn back, with lighter wallets:

Spoiler: Thousands of portuguese idiots trying to cross the Tagus river to go to the Lisbon beaches during a pandemic

Spoiler: Plot Twist!

 

[jasonbarron]

In Portugal police had to block highways, bridges and main roads in order to prevent massive hordes of people trying to use their lockdown "vacations" to go to the beaches and weekend leisure trips. Thousands of fines were issued to drivers that had no valid justification this weekend. Some were arrested for evading the lockdown twice(?) in the weekend, including an old woman who kept going to the same mall even though police had already taken her back home twice.

I'm increasingly wondering why am I giving a fart about other people's safety by staying at home for weks or months (who knows), if themselves don't seem to care one iota. But then I remember that while those people are still in great number, they're still the minority.

Thousands of quarantine evaders tried to cross the bridge over the Tagus river in Lisbon to reah the south side beaches, but were cleverly ambushed by the police and were forced to turn back, with lighter wallets:

Spoiler: Thousands of portuguese idiots trying to go to the Lisbon beaches during a pandemic

Spoiler: Plot Twist!

Those spoilers are priceless!

Yeah, it's the same all over I think. In Montana we're under a soft "shelter at home" order that went into effect yesterday, intended to freeze everyone who wasn't making deliveries to the elderly or working critical need jobs, but there's sure a lot of people on the freeway as I took my parents a load of supplies, many of them dragging camping trailers with bikes, trailers with four wheelers & dirt bikes etc.

The bottom line is this: it will take bodies piling up before many people begin to take this seriously as something they are likely to catch. The idea of mass casualties and a breakdown of basic social services is simply beyond the average citizen of western civ to wrap their minds around. That'll change.

 

[Raino]

Was more thinking of....

Just remembered Bruce saying "Everybody thought it is just a crazy kind of flu" .......

 

[Morbad]

I'm increasingly wondering why am I giving a fart about other people's safety by staying at home for weks or months (who knows), if themselves don't seem to care one iota. But then I remember that while those people are still in great number, they're still the minority.

Their safety may also have an impact on your safety, or the safety of those you personally care about. Anyone of these reckless ignoramuses could find themselves wasting test kit, or a ventilator, someone else may need.

Anyway, I'm not sure what's more offensive, the indifference, or the idea that it would be easy to evade an actual quarantine while in a car on a public highway or major choke point like a bridge. You'd figure they'd at least take back roads...

 

[Northpin]

If someone were trying to build a weapon out of a coronavirus, they almost certainly would have used the more optimal receptor binding domain already present in SARS-CoV, rather than taking shots in the dark to replace something that already worked very well when building a hypothetical SARS-CoV-2.

That doesn't exclude a lab virus escaping. A far from perfect work-in-progress, not necessarily a real bomb released on purpose.
It happened before and it's actually mentioned in the Nature article

Basic research involving passage of bat SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses in cell culture and/or animal models has been ongoing for many years in biosafety level 2 laboratories across the world, and there are documented instances of laboratory escapes of SARS-CoV. We must therefore examine the possibility of an inadvertent laboratory release of SARS-CoV-2.

So, I'm not saying it's a weapon. I'm not saying it's a lab virus inadvertently released.
I'm not even saying it's man-made.

I'm just saying that as long the origin of the virus is unknown yet, no one can certainly claim that SARS-CoV-2 is natural or man-made.

 

[Ian Skippy]

If it was an accidental release of a Chinese-made virus CCP would have known what they were dealing with and wouldn't have bungled their response so hopelessly. None of this makes any sense as a 'lab virus'. It makes perfect sense as the natural event we've been warned over and over would happen. The "But you dont know for sure!" argument is silly. I dont know for sure you didn't make the virus either, but because it is so far-fetched, pointless and not matching anything we've seen happen in reality I am not going to make a dozen posts entertaining that notion just because "you cant be sure!".

China Created a Fail-Safe System to Track Contagions. It Failed. (Published 2020)

After SARS, Chinese health officials built an infectious disease reporting system to evade political meddling. But when the coronavirus emerged, so did fears of upsetting Beijing.

www.nytimes.com

1) Natural virus occurred
2) Local authorities didn't do their job out of fear for Beijing's reprisal, so the warning system failed
3) Nobody in the area had a clue what it was, because it wasn't made in the area.
4) By the time central authorities figured out something was up (due to whistle-blowers!) it was too late.

In a sense, there are quite a few similarities with Chernobyl.

 

[Synkreto]

[...]
So, I'm not saying it's a weapon. I'm not saying it's a lab virus inadvertently released.
I'm not even saying it's man-made.

I'm just saying that as long the origin of the virus is unknown yet, no one can certainly claim that SARS-CoV-2 is natural or man-made.

Modern times man...nothing is certain anymore XD .

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI9CaQD7P6I

make sure you watch it to the end .

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Coronavirus: Brazil's Bolsonaro in denial and out on a limb

The president is isolating himself from other world leaders as he downplays the coronavirus pandemic.

www.bbc.com

Without a scientifically literate leader, Brazil is imperilled.
We have seen this failure over and over and over.

 

[jasonbarron]

I'm surprised to see a number of people claiming to know so clearly what's going on in China. Given the fact that they froze out all third parties from the beginning with the extremely limited exception of the WHO (and lets face it, kind of hard to ignore all the "carrying China's water" criticisms being leveled at them at this point), it's pretty amazing to see people run cover for them and act as if they know what's going on there with any certainty. Too bad all the rest of the health organizations and governments around the globe don't have this same kind of rock solid VIP access.

 

[Ian Skippy]

Just to make sure people understand how totally not surprised the scientific community is:

 

[Morbad]

That doesn't exclude a lab virus escaping. A far from perfect work-in-progress, not necessarily a real bomb released on purpose.
It happened before and it's actually mentioned in the Nature article

Well that example was a natural strain that a technician was exposed to not long after it was isolated. Other lab escapes have been identified because they've been too closely related to old strains that should no longer have been circulating in their original form.

Regardless, cases like those aren't evidence for a novel pathogen like SARS-CoV-2 being from a lab. If anything, it's the opposite.

So, I'm not saying it's a weapon. I'm not saying it's a lab virus inadvertently released.
I'm not even saying it's man-made.

I'm just saying that as long the origin of the virus is unknown yet, no one can certainly claim that SARS-CoV-2 is natural or man-made.

Absolute certainty isn't something we're ever likely to have, but that doesn't mean the two possibilities here are even close to equivalent and the idea of a man-made origin should not be taken seriously without actual evidence.

If it was an accidental release of a Chinese-made virus CCP would have known what they were dealing with and wouldn't have bungled their response so hopelessly.

Never underestimate the ability of an authoritarian hierarchy to break down as it's cogs all scramble to avoid blame. That's probably the main reason why China's response was so slow and Xi Jinping made such a radical turn in stance on the issue...he probably didn't have any idea how bad things were until problems got too big to cover up.

Like you pointed out, there are similarities to Chernobyl.

Not saying it was man-made, obviously, but natural or not, wild or lab origin, may well not make one whit of difference when it comes to stages 2-4 of your timeline (and #2 could be amended to 'Nobody in the area had a clue what it was, because no one was told'). Indeed, you could probably replace #1 with just about any conceivable screw up.

 

[Silure]

Was more thinking of....

Perfect!

 

[Northpin]

Just to make sure people understand how totally not surprised the scientific community is:

Certainly this was anticipated.
What wasn't anticipated was SARS-CoV-2 being much more tricky than the first one
And the initial cover-up of the local Chinese authorities that allowed the asymptomatic people or people with mild symptoms to spread it out everywhere in the world.
Then the lack of authorities in democratic world to limit liberties and the virus spread.

Everything evolved like a really bad horror movie.

 

[Trotsky2112]

Everything evolved like a really bad horror movie.

Maybe someone up there is playing Plague Inc.

 

[askavir]

A reporter photograph that went viral in Portugal today that illustrates perfectly one of our current major issues: there's just no way we can convince the elders to stay home not even to avoid death by suffocation in some overcrowded crumbling public hospital, they just continue roaming the streets no farts given. Most likely a candidate for press photo of the year.

A police officer begging an old woman to go home.

Spoiler

 

[Synkreto]

Certainly this was anticipated.
What wasn't anticipated was SARS-CoV-2 being much more tricky than the first one
And the initial cover-up of the local Chinese authorities that allowed the asymptomatic people or people with mild symptoms to spread it out everywhere in the world.
Then the lack of authorities in democratic world to limit liberties and the virus spread.

Everything evolved like a really bad horror movie.

( emphasis mine )

That could happen without any coverup .

 

[jasonbarron]

A reporter photograph that went viral in Portugal today that illustrates perfectly one of our current major issues: there's just no way we can convince the elders to stay home not even to avoid death by suffocation in some overcrowded crumbling public hospital, they just continue roaming the streets no farts given.

Spoiler

Why do you think some people get it and the vast majority don't? What is the key difference that clicks in peoples heads and the survival instinct kicks in?