General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Han_Zen]

However I would not be surprised if in the near or far future, the United States invaded Venezuela under humanitarian pretexts, with in ulterior motives the very important reserves of oil.

After all these are the habits of the United States.

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If there is one thing the current US administration is guilty of, it's leaving places they should have stayed. Not invading places for resources.
It's more of less the same in the past. Places without resources gets ignored by US/NATO. If you have some you might get help.
France uses the Foreign legion for "economical adjustment" all the time. It's not different to other global/regional powers.

 

[Morbad]

Weird things are happening over there though.

Increased Military action, as observed.

If not for the Cruise ship industry I think my country would be well on it's way to flat-lining infections. Curiously, our Border Protection minister who was so keen on "stopping the boats" early in his career is silent about this new phenomenon.

Cruise ships, military action, and Venezuela?

Not COVID-19 related, but a story right out of the twilight zone featuring all three:

Statement on RCGS RESOLUTE incident - Columbia Cruise Services

In the early morning hours of the 30th of March 2020 (local time), the cruise vessel RCGS RESOLUTE has been subject to an act of aggression by the Venezuelan Navy in international waters, around 13.3 nautical miles from Isla de Tortuga with 32 crew member and no passengers on board. When the...

www.columbia-cs.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1246520629760843780

Source: https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1246520629760843780


Maduro's Navy seems pretty jumpy lately...wouldn't want to be the skipper that got his dictator's fancy hundred-plus million dollar coastal patrol boat sunk while ramming a civilian ship five times it's displacement.

 

[ianw]

Hmm, in the uk, I’m reading in media that many people are breaking rules by being on our local beach. But live webcam and local photos show otherwise.
I suspect we’re being setup to blame ourselves rather than our late responding gov.
Of course there are some people who believe the rules don’t apply to them, but I smell scape goat.

I was seeing mostly pics of people in urban parks/outdoor gyms in non socially distanced groups and the obligatory ics of lycra clad groups of cyclists.

But I did see a BBC report that went against the trend - showed a deserted sea front - can't recall where or find the article now.

And you get this Deserted London

But then you also get this 000s hit London parks

Causing one of them to be closed today.

So I guess it really depends where you look and what you're looking for..

 

[Northpin]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article241709161.html

 

[Han_Zen]

We really need to stop buying stuff from China, I would rather get it locally as it would bring jobs back.

Mass production in general, is slowly going to end. New automated production methods (like 3D printing) will make it obsolete. No labour is cheaper than cheap labour and no freight cost is cheaper than low freight cost.
It takes time, but it will happen.
Centralized production is as dated as the big city. We want need them, in the future.

 

[Ian Skippy]

For the first time more people left the hospital than entered. Over the hill!

 

[metatheurgist]

Cruise ships, military action, and Venezuela?

Not COVID-19 related, but a story right out of the twilight zone featuring all three:

Statement on RCGS RESOLUTE incident - Columbia Cruise Services

In the early morning hours of the 30th of March 2020 (local time), the cruise vessel RCGS RESOLUTE has been subject to an act of aggression by the Venezuelan Navy in international waters, around 13.3 nautical miles from Isla de Tortuga with 32 crew member and no passengers on board. When the...

www.columbia-cs.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1246520629760843780

Source: https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1246520629760843780


Maduro's Navy seems pretty jumpy lately...wouldn't want to be the skipper that got his dictator's fancy hundred-plus million dollar coastal patrol boat sunk while ramming a civilian ship five times it's displacement.

People have officially gone mad.

 

[Northpin]

People have officially gone mad.

I'd say stupid. And I mean really stupid.
How can one think it's wise to ram an Ice Class certified cruise ship in a patrol boat 5-6 times lighter

 

[Good Whiskey]

For the first time more people left the hospital than entered. Over the hill!

I don't know what "over the hill" means in this context. Belgium just reported a spike in cases in line with what we've seen elsewhere. The curve is not flattening here yet, but if you have some encouraging data from a local source, please share.

 

[Ian Skippy]

I don't know what "over the hill" means in this context. Belgium just reported a spike in cases in line with what we've seen elsewhere. The curve is not flattening here yet, but if you have some encouraging data from a local source, please share.

The number of cases is meaningless: Belgium increased testing by 500% in the last few days. More reliable is the total number of hospitalization per day:

Tweede dag op rij minder opnames wegens corona in ziekenhuizen

Er lijkt zich een positieve trend af te tekenen over de evolutie van de corona-epidemie in ons land. Er is een volledige stabilisering van het aantal nieuwe ziekenhuisopnames.

www.tijd.be

Sorry, in Dutch, but the graph should be easy to interpret. X-axis is number of days since ten people have been hospitalized. Today is the first day that the line actually goes down. So not just flattening, but actually decreasing (not included in the graph yet). We're a little under 60% of ICU capacity, so we've pretty much managed to keep the first wave under control. Now we need to make sure keep this going for a few more weeks, and then ease on measures in a way we don't have an even larger second wave. Number of deaths always lag behind number of hospitalizations, so that will go down in 1-2 weeks or so top.

In the Netherlands things are a bit darker, but after having more than doubled ICU beds it sorta looks like it might kinda hold (with help from German and Belgian hospitals, for which we are very grateful!). It has been a massive strain of healthcare staff, with ICU nurses having to take care of 3-4 patients simultaneously rather than the usual 1-2 patients. The Belgian approach in that sense seemed to have worked better (as I, and most other European countries, predicted) but the response has been sorta sufficient enough to be able to prevent a real catastrophe with the aid of our neighbors. Quite notable is the different vision towards elderly and the ICU: the Netherlands are quicker to discourage the elderly to go into ICU due to the poor prospects and lengthy revalidation period if successful. This means that the Netherlands has hit ICU capacity while discouraging people, whereas Belgium has not even come close while encouraging people to go to ICU. As a consequence there is a lot of hidden mortality in the Netherlands you dont see yet in the stats.

 

[Good Whiskey]

Good luck, Belgium. I love you guys. I used to live in Namur in the early 2000s. One of my favorite places on earth. I still think about it often, and I'm still a Charleroi supporter. Too bad the league got cut short and Brugge was just given the title, but it's entirely understandable.

 

[ianw]

Encouraging signs elsewhere too

Far too early to be singing victory - especially here in the UK - but little pinpricks of light amongst the gloom..

 

[Ian Skippy]

Encouraging signs elsewhere too

Far too early to be singing victory - especially here in the UK - but little pinpricks of light amongst the gloom..

Indeed still very early, but if both Europe and the US can keep total mortality of the first wave below ~150,000 than that means at least the western world managed to dodge the worst scenarios (with all the respect to the countless victims!). And we might even be able to help out in other parts of the world, if things indeed continue to go well!

 

[jasonbarron]

Hope is a critical component to fighting the pandemic. Nice to see it shining through in Ian's last few posts.

 

[lysan]

Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread - Virology Journal

Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is caused by a newly discovered coronavirus (SARS-CoV). No effective prophylactic or post-exposure therapy is currently available. Results We report, however, that chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS-CoV infection of primate cells...

virologyj.biomedcentral.com

 

[Ian Skippy]

Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread - Virology Journal

Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is caused by a newly discovered coronavirus (SARS-CoV). No effective prophylactic or post-exposure therapy is currently available. Results We report, however, that chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS-CoV infection of primate cells...

virologyj.biomedcentral.com

Yes, the results obtained during the SARS outbreak is why chloroquine is being investigated now. Unfortunately, while early in vitro studies seemed to be promising for SARS-CoV-2 it has not translated as well in clinical studies. However, there is some hope that it might be more beneficial as part of a cocktail of drugs, but not enough data exists to say much about that yet.

 

[jasonbarron]

Interesting (to me) anecdotal observation: my state, using commonly accepted models (of which I've been skeptical of since they developed them) locked itself down 8 days ago, one day after the first covid fatality was recorded. Since then the number of infections and associated fatalities have hardly budged, somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 infections and 5 fatalities, pretty much the same as the state picture looked if we took a snapshot of the statistics looked at the end of the day, eight days ago. Good luck finding out any specific information about all but one of those fatalities.

Our first recorded cases were almost three weeks ago now. It's not a big city by any means, but there are tens of thousands of people, the seat of the state's government, a regional airport, more churches and elder care facilities than you can shake a stick at. And by "lockdown" it really only amounts to "traffic and activity are down by fifty percent." The only really noticeable impact of the lockdown was to shutter restaurants and planned festivals. Other than that, there's still tons of movement and work going on...yet them numbers are hardly moving.

My bull excrement detector has been clanging for so long now it's about worn out, but now that the virus is here "officially" it's about ready to break with the overload.

Either Covid has already been active here for months (as I predicted) and the effects are so mild that nobody has noticed, or we're looking at one of the biggest, weirdest conspiracies in the history of mankind. Third option: a Frankenstein's monster conglomeration of both.

 

[Ian Skippy]

Interesting (to me) anecdotal observation: my state, using commonly accepted models (of which I've been skeptical of since they developed them) locked itself down 8 days ago, one day after the first covid fatality was recorded. Since then the number of infections and associated fatalities have hardly budged, somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 infections and 5 fatalities, pretty much the same as the state picture looked if we took a snapshot of the statistics looked at the end of the day, eight days ago. Good luck finding out any specific information about all but one of those fatalities.

Our first recorded cases were almost three weeks ago now. It's not a big city by any means, but there are tens of thousands of people, the seat of the state's government, a regional airport, more churches and elder care facilities than you can shake a stick at. And by "lockdown" it really only amounts to "traffic and activity are down by fifty percent." The only really noticeable impact of the lockdown was to shutter restaurants and planned festivals. Other than that, there's still tons of movement and work going on...yet them numbers are hardly moving.

But doesn't that make perfect sense with a 5-14 day incubation period and an exponential increase? If numbers double (x) every four days ('y') and you have the first fatality eight days (z) ago, you'd be at 1*x^(z/y)=1*2^(8/4)~4 daily fatalities. And which such low numbers you can easily have 2 one day, and seven the other or some such. I forgot which state you are in, but aren't the less densely populated states on average to be expected to start showing a more serious increase 2-4 weeks from now rather than this moment?

 

[lysan]

France, someone is angry!

 

[jasonbarron]

But doesn't that make perfect sense with a 5-14 day incubation period and an exponential increase? If numbers double (x) every four days ('y') and you have the first fatality eight days (z) ago, you'd be at 1*x^(z/y)=1*2^(8/4)~4 daily fatalities. And which such low numbers you can easily have 2 one day, and seven the other or some such. I forgot which state you are in, but aren't the less densely populated states on average to be expected to start showing a more serious increase 2-4 weeks from now rather than this moment?

We're at roughly three weeks from the first official cases. I'm in agreement with the idea that population density will either increase/decrease the rapidity of spread, but while this is no New York, it's still a city with tens of thousands of people. And that's just my local city, there being many others. So far it's just crickets, and I think there should be more activity using the accepted models.