We're at roughly three weeks from the first official cases. I'm in agreement with the idea that population density will either increase/decrease the rapidity of spread, but while this is no New York, it's still a city with tens of thousands of people. And that's just my local city, there being many others. So far it's just crickets, and I think there should be more activity using the accepted models.
Well, we'll just have to wait and see (or, hopefully, not!
Actuele informatie over COVID-19 | RIVM
Actuele cijfers COVID-19 en nieuws over het nieuwe coronavirus
Three weeks after the first case, we had a total of 'only' 76 casualties, the overwhelming majority of them in Brabant. The rest of the country, at the time, had combined less than 10 casualties. Not per day, in total. The week after that 434, and the week after that 1393. And that is in our tiny, densely, packed country. I hope I am wrong, but I fear the worst for most US states is yet to come.
And if not, we'll have a whole bunch of new and very interesting questions!