General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Ian Skippy]

Shy question : Why is the question whether it will do a statistically significant impact on death rates ? I really do not understand . To me, this reads like "ah well, thats a statistically insignificant # of death, they do not really matter ." And just to be clear : I really want to understand you .

Insignificant doesn't mean unimportant. In a country with a far higher percentage of low-risk people, and a far higher average mortality, the actual impact will be smaller. If ' business as usual before COVID19' was 1 million deaths, and ' business as usual during COVID19' is 1.01 million deaths, there isn't much point top go for a complete lockdown. In Belgium we can have a lockdown for two months, keep paying people's salaries, and largely keep everything going with some (by comparison) mild nuisances. In Sierra Leone a lockdown means people are going to starve. And there isn't much point in letting 100 million people starve, for example, to delay the death of 10,000 elderly people, most with underlying conditions.

So the questions are: what happens when we do nothing, what happens when do [x] or [y], and which measures can our country afford? When it comes to the latter, the answer for many countries is: not much.

 

[Synkreto]

It’s important for the economy of the poorest countries.
If Covid-19 impact is low, they can continue more or less as usual. If impact is severe what little they have going on, may collapse.

I’m still hopefully that the impact will be low or moderate and that for once, we in the first world will carry the heaviest burden.

Thanks .

Recap to make sure : Considering CoViD -19 mostly kills old, sick, already weakened people, and the %age of these is assumed to be rather low in african countries compared to "first world" countries, since they tend to die rather than stay alive due to HealthCare Systems, while median age of pop in african countries is rather low ( younger people are assumed to not be hit as hard by an infection ), the assumption is african countries can continue more or less as usual ?

Does this take into account that nevertheless, strain on HealthCare may be reaching "too much" lvls rather quickly ( casuing more unnecessary deaths ), as well as possible long lasting health Issues after one has successfully fought off the infection ?

 

[WhiteHaulerMan]

Shy question : Why is the question whether it will do a statistically significant impact on death rates ? I really do not understand . To me, this reads like "ah well, thats a statistically insignificant # of death, they do not really matter ." And just to be clear : I really want to understand you .

In laymans terms (numbers made up to make things clearer).

You run Mustardia, a country where you normally have 100 deaths a year due to 'normal' reasons in the over 40 demographic.

Along comes the pandemic. Projections show that without self-isolating/shutting down the country this death rate will rise to 110 deaths.

However, shutting down your economy will kill 120 in the over 40's bracket as well as 80 in the under 40 bracket due to starvation/increased poverty.

What do you do?

These are the grim mathematics poorer nations will face.

 

[Ian Skippy]

New stats from the Netherlands: total mortality in the first week of april was 2000 higher than normal, ~5000 vs ~3000. Less than half of it can be found in the official COVID19 stats. This confirms other reports coming in from elderly care institutions, where death rate is through the roof. One institution is currently under investigation, after it failed to take proper measures and has already seen more than half of all their patients die.

The 'the powerful elite are falsely inflating death count to scare the population while they prepare their New Global Order' theories and such are the opposite of reality: mortality is underreported, and vastly so.

 

[Ian Skippy]

Does this take into account that nevertheless, strain on HealthCare may be reaching "too much" lvls rather quickly ( casuing more unnecessary deaths ), as well as possible long lasting health Issues after one has successfully fought off the infection ?

Malawi, for example, has 20 ICU beds in total for their 18 million population. They were already strained too much before this began. The usual stat is 'per 10,000 citizens'. The rounded answer for Malawi is '0'.

 

[Synkreto]

New stats from the Netherlands: total mortality in the first week of april was 2000 higher than normal, ~5000 vs ~3000. Less than half of it can be found in the official COVID19 stats. This confirms other reports coming in from elderly care institutions, where death rate is through the roof. One institution is currently under investigation, after it failed to take proper measures and has already seen more than half of all their patients die.

The 'the powerful elite are falsely inflating death count to scare the population while they prefer their New Global Order' theories and such are the opposite of reality: mortality is underreported, and vastly so.

Really glad you brought it to the point !

 

[Morbad]

It’s important for the economy of the poorest countries.
If Covid-19 impact is low, they can continue more or less as usual. If impact is severe what little they have going on, may collapse.

Poor countries are generally less resilient than wealthy ones, not more so.

So the questions are: what happens when we do nothing, what happens when do [x] or [y], and which measures can our country afford? When it comes to the latter, the answer for many countries is: not much.

Some of them are likely going to be in a position where they can avoid neither the illness nor the mitigation.

Does this take into account that nevertheless, strain on HealthCare may be reaching "too much" lvls rather quickly ( casuing more unnecessary deaths ), as well as possible long lasting health Issues after one has successfully fought off the infection ?

Plenty of poorer nations are chronically at "too much" levels.

Somalia, for example, only has one doctor for every 40k people or so and an equally dire figure for ICU beds. Very few people would get any treatment in any significant outbreak. No testing capacity either.

 

[Synkreto]

Malawi, for example, has 20 ICU beds in total for their 18 million population. They were already strained too much before this began. The usual stat is 'per 10,000 citizens'. The rounded answer for Malawi is '0'.

Would this mean "just keep on keeping on" would not be a good course of action for Malawi ?

 

[metatheurgist]

One issue the developing nations will have is that they wont have the resources to spend on accounting, they'll be scrambling just to stay alive.

This is what results from a world where people believe radio towers can cause viral infections.

Pete Evans claims $15k 'bio charger' could treat 'Wuhan coronavirus'

I still say there's an education problem, no one should leave school capable of believing this crap.

 

[Synkreto]

One issue the developing nations will have is that they wont have the resources to spend on accounting, they'll be scrambling just to stay alive.

[...]

Yes.

I am wondering whether the impact on some Nations can come close to "extinction" level . Is one of the reasons why I am questioning the relevance of statistical impact, knowing that everywhere in the World people are struggling to and arguing about getting proper numbers, as well as whether the impact is looked at in its totality sufficiently .

 

[Oldviboy]

There's no vaccine in sight and the virus probably isn't going to magically go away. Out of curiosity, how long do you (or anyone else for that matter) think they can hide from it by quarantining? There are some such as Morbad who suggest that if we "just wait longer" things will be "better" but that seems pretty foolish and naive to me; this isn't going to get "better" for months, if not years.

i do not think anyone wants to hide, it is to avoid the spread ... in the Canary Islands it has worked very well, no hospital collapsed, there is no lack of materials or personnel, and few infections ... in Madrid, although they still have beds at 100 percent, it seems that they are beginning to stabilize .... the idea here is to gradually get out of the quarantine, gradually open businesses, masks, gloves and social distancing, and avoid at all costs the crowds of people .. ..
The idea of an open Champions League final in Europe (the most important football competition where most European clubs participate) with an open door with thousands of mindless football fans from all over the world could not be more terrifying. It could create an outbreak that would spread again throughout europe.
I want to get out of quarantine now, and I am a person who likes to stay home, but he couldn't catch me at a worse time.
If each one is responsible for himself and with the others, I would not mind ending the quarantine today in the Canary Islands, but on the other hand, I think that even the experts are not clear and many canaries are very irresponsible and like the party very much and the beach, myself included, so surely the group of people would not be respected.

While I'm looking for a delivery job, of the little that can be worked now, because I need it, but I trust that the experts know what to do, don't trust any politician. And let no one doubt about censorship, death counts, deceits about the type of death ... because although the media created a social alarm (and rightly so), things could be even worse than they say. , from Madrid the health workers themselves warn that the death toll could be double what is counted, so it seems that for once, the fault is not from the media.

 

[Synkreto]

In laymans terms (numbers made up to make things clearer).

You run Mustardia, a country where you normally have 100 deaths a year due to 'normal' reasons in the over 40 demographic.

Along comes the pandemic. Projections show that without self-isolating/shutting down the country this death rate will rise to 110 deaths.

However, shutting down your economy will kill 120 in the over 40's bracket as well as 80 in the under 40 bracket due to starvation/increased poverty.

What do you do?

These are the grim mathematics poorer nations will face.

Thanks .

I am wondering : who is looking at the impact on Native American communites ( no clue if thats the pc term atmo, sry if its not ) . Indigenous Nations in the Amazonas ? Tribal communities in African Countries ? Innuit people ( again xcuse if not pc ) ?

I mean, even the pretty clearly shown harder impact on people of colour in some regions/cities in the USA is hotly debated...though there can be no doubt about that ,backed up by hard Data of tested and confirmed cases . What about communities which are not looked at, and do not have any or only little capacity to test, diagnose and treat ?

In my mind, there is no doubt that pictures like in "Outbreak", could actually be existing on the Planet, at this moment . Some village, or community, where the impact of the Pandemic simply ended up in a lot of dead bodies lying around, largely unnoticed by the rest of the World .

 

[Patrick_68000]

News reports British PM discharged from ICU.

And his father said that doesn’t mean he’s off the hook.

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[Oldviboy]

Regarding Africa and underdeveloped countries ... I recently read an article by the President of the Republic of the Congo, I think, where he commented that although they had Ebola isolation rooms, they did not have evidence tests, or masks or gloves...

in other regions of the continent they cannot even access water for handwashing. There is the answer to the few reported cases.

In South Africa, the most economically developed country, they are suffering an HIV epidemic with 7 million affected ..., will we someday know the real data of deaths in that continent? I do not think so, but without a doubt there will be many, something sadly experienced every day.

 

[Patrick_68000]

TL/DR: I didn't like the sneering down the nose idea of Patrick's post that somehow those of us wanting to continue to work for the good of all don't have our Human dignity or pride, when it's us ensuring that the electricity is on so Patrick can spam badly formed 'English speaking west bad' prose.

You misinterpreted my post.

There was no sneer at all.

When I was talking about work, I mean normal period (virus free) of course.

Regarding my English, I do not apologize for my bad prose, because I am not British and I do my best to participate.

However, I speak excellently the French.



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[jasonbarron]

The article isn't implying the virus cares about about skin color or creed, but that, conciously or not people still do, that systemic racism is still a thing, and that it has consequences to public health.

Yep, like he said: business as usual.

 

[Ian Skippy]

The NY fire department data shows mortality of people in their homes or on the streets increased by 800%, highlighting the vast underreporting of deaths in the US too.

Fire Department data shows that 1,125 patients were pronounced dead in their homes or on the street in the first five days of April, more than eight times the 131 deaths recorded during the same period last year.

Number of Virus Patients in I.C.U.s Starts to Fall in New York (Published 2020)

The figure decreased for the first time since the outbreak began, providing more evidence that the curve of infection is flattening, but deaths remain high.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Synkreto]

The NY fire department data shows mortality of people in their homes or on the streets increased by 800%, highlighting the vast underreporting of deaths in the US too.

Number of Virus Patients in I.C.U.s Starts to Fall in New York (Published 2020)

The figure decreased for the first time since the outbreak began, providing more evidence that the curve of infection is flattening, but deaths remain high.

www.nytimes.com

"...mortality of people [...] on the streets..." ??? Man, its so good to live where I do . ( Yeah I know, people die on the Streets in car accidents and other stuff...but even THAT is really rare here... ) .

And btw., this is despite some Gvnr. saying there is LESS strain on HealthCare in NYC due to less traffic, less shootings, less everything 'cos "Stay At Home!" .

 

[Ian Skippy]

"...mortality of people [...] on the streets..." ??? Man, its so good to live where I do . ( Yeah I know, people die on the Streets in car accidents and other stuff...but even THAT is really rare here... ) .

And btw., this is despite some Gvnr. saying there is LESS strain on HealthCare in NYC due to less traffic, less shootings, less everything 'cos "Stay At Home!" .

In a large metropolitan area, you'll inevitably have hundreds of people die on the streets every year due to traffic accidents, violence, drug overdose, medical incidents such as stroke and heart attack and so forth. In the context of this report, it means 'mortality everywhere except for medical facilities'. It does not necessarily mean there are bodies on every street corner.

 

[AkenBosch]

In my mind, there is no doubt that pictures like in "Outbreak", could actually be existing on the Planet, at this moment . Some village, or community, where the impact of the Pandemic simply ended up in a lot of dead bodies lying around, largely unnoticed by the rest of the World

Look up for Ecuador on Google, or whatever. And beware of the mischievous reptilian-owned media. They are keeping us all locked in like scared cattle, bombarding our precious flesh with 5G radiation to make it more tender. They gonna eat us all!