General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Mole HD]

Ooof, as relentlessly macho as God made me I am not made for living in such climates! Then again, I can imagine the view can compensate a lot...

We get that a lot here too... nature's own light pollution. But I live on a remote island with no street lighting, no towns or villages, only 25 miles of road and less than 500 permanent inhabitants...

Spoiler

yesterday, after finishing the last of the ploughing so I can get some barley planted in the top field...

Spoiler

...my wife and I went down the beach at the back of our farm at low tide and grabbed some cockles and razor shells for tea...

Spoiler

...as well as our child-like penchant for collecting large-ish sea shells we leave lying on our outside window sills as ad-hoc decoration...

Spoiler

...I had to drop down to the harbour that afternoon to pick up a small generator that had come over on the ferry, but once at the harbour I spotted Ian, the local lobster fisherman landing his catch for the day...after a few minutes chatting over a cup of coffee, I came away with a nice large lobster for free to supplement the cockles, razor shells and a bunch of samphire we had picked from the beach...my wife made up some lemon butter for the lobster, it was lovely

Spoiler

All in all, a lovely day...zero mentions of Covid-19 or international concerns at all... with free, hand harvested sea food at the end of it...Living apart from the rest of the known world and it's real world problems does have it's benefits.

Apologies for the lack of relevant Covid-19 news in the post...but we're still thankfully isolated from it...still 5 reported cases on the main island with 1 resulting death, outlying islands have zero cases... as much as we continue to observe certain lockdown rules as a matter of common sense and caution even in our isolated society.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

In other news, the director of the CDC is warning that the second wave could be worse than the first. Multiple waves was always regarded as a possibility, even a probability, but as far as I know this is the first time the CDC has explicitly outlined the risks in an interview..

Coming to terms with how it works is a bit hard for most. So the discussion is chunked into bits the public can handle, like the introduction of the Dwarves in the Hobbit.

Slow adapters are having a particularly hard time, and are still in denial. A fraction will simply not catch up. Can't cope with reality at all. So far, we have had the hors d'ouvre.

With only 1-2% population infected and well over 50-70 TIMES the impact potentially ahead to reach that 80% for herd immunity. There's a reason I liquidated all my stocks: the coming Depression, likely on the way.

At some point, we shall have to micrometer the R0 to something like 1.1, to slowly build herd immunity at a rate compatible with medical service capacity.

Doing that successfully is only possible with an agreeable population, large scale accurate testing, and scientifically literate leadership. Most places won't succeed, the USA need not even apply as they are 0 for 3. The worlds biggest economy is .

It's the nature of pandemics to bring us to our knees.
Non industrial poor countries won't be counting anything, "flattening any curves", or ventillating anybody in ICUs.

They'll be busy burying. Projections are a quarter billion on the chopping block. If the vaccine fails, we'll be worse off..

 

[Northpin]

Do I count as an expert? I posted this link ages ago:

The MicrobeScope – Infectious Diseases in Context — Information is Beautiful

How deadly & infectious are the major diseases? A visualised ranking of Bird Flu, Ebola, SARS, Malaria and other infectious diseases.

informationisbeautiful.net

It puts COVID19 among the lower end of the contagiousness scale. A highly contagious and deadly virus would wipe out modern civilization in a matter of a few weeks, btw. Just to add some perspective to what 'not that contagious' means. If I dont count, how about the RIVM, our national health advisory board:

"Hi John. We are in close contact with other institutions, such as the WHO and EDCD (European CDC). The virus seems, with what we currently know, to be not that contagious." That was before this topic even existed.

That was the data at the beginning.
This article puts Sars-Cov-2 close to Ro 6 - making it very contagious and by the end, its rating might increase even more.

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early ...

wwwnc.cdc.gov

 

[Ian Skippy]

That was the data at the beginning.
This article puts Sars-Cov-2 close to Ro 6 - making it very contagious and by the end, its rating might increase even more.

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early ...

wwwnc.cdc.gov

Oh sure. Just providing some evidence that this (as well as pretty much any other other conceivable opinion) has been floated long before this topic even existed. The important part in such discussions is not yelling random and self-contradicting things ("It is not contagious at all, and far more people are already infected than anyone thinks but it isn't deadly at all and in China tens of millions of people died!") and then claiming 'victory' when one of those things was in line with what some others at some point said, but indeed the cautious, careful and nuanced analysis of data combined with the ability to change your view when new data calls for it.

 

[Ian Skippy]

We get that a lot here too... nature's own light pollution. But I live on a remote island with no street lighting, no towns or villages, only 25 miles of road and less than 500 permanent inhabitants...

Spoiler

yesterday, after finishing the last of the ploughing so I can get some barley planted in the top field...

Spoiler

...my wife and I went down the beach at the back of our farm at low tide and grabbed some cockles and razor shells for tea...

Spoiler

...as well as our child-like penchant for collecting large-ish sea shells we leave lying on our outside window sills as ad-hoc decoration...

Spoiler

...I had to drop down to the harbour that afternoon to pick up a small generator that had come over on the ferry, but once at the harbour I spotted Ian, the local lobster fisherman landing his catch for the day...after a few minutes chatting over a cup of coffee, I came away with a nice large lobster for free to supplement the cockles, razor shells and a bunch of samphire we had picked from the beach...my wife made up some lemon butter for the lobster, it was lovely

Spoiler

All in all, a lovely day...zero mentions of Covid-19 or international concerns at all... with free, hand harvested sea food at the end of it...Living apart from the rest of the known world and it's real world problems does have it's benefits.

Apologies for the lack of relevant Covid-19 news in the post...but we're still thankfully isolated from it...still 5 reported cases on the main island with 1 resulting death, outlying islands have zero cases... as much as we continue to observe certain lockdown rules as a matter of common sense and caution even in our isolated society.

That looks like the kind of stuff I'd have to fly 1000s of LYs for to find in some Thargoid-occupied nebula!

 

[Han_Zen]

Current status in Norway:

• Confirmed infected: 7241
• Tested: 145,279
• Deaths: 182
• Hospitalised: 136, down from peak 324.
• ICU: 58, down from peak 117.
• Ventilator: 40, down from peak 99.

New report from the national health institute estimates 1% (50,000) of the population to have been infected. Current active cases are estimated at about 3,500. Mortality seem to be well under 1% of the infected. About 1% need hospitalisation with some kind of breathing aid.

The 182 dead have an average age of 83. Three confirmed to be younger than 67. 109 have died in an elder institution. 69 have died in hospital. 3 at home.

Active cases are expected to drop to 300-400 during first half of Mai, but new peaks are expected later as restrictions are slowly lifted.

The current restrictions(up to this week) have prevented about 10% from working. Either by ban or indirect causes. Home office combined with online school or small children at home, has lead to some efficiency drop among those still working. Kindergardens opened this week and 1-4th grade opens next week.
Later there will be a partial opening of high schools and universities, for those in need of school equipment. Theoretical education continues online.

Personal note: I must say that the online school has worked great. My kids just brought home their school laptop the day the schools closed. Teachers have had Teams meetings with class, twice a day. All tasks have been available in Teams and OneNote.
Some of the classes have even been conducted in Minecraft Education.

 

[Wotthe Dickens]

If I get it, I'd be happy to take my chances - I might well have a fairly crappy time of it since I'm a smoker but I'm in fairly good general health.

I first posted here about having symptoms on 6th April.
I’m an ex smoker - gave up on the 6th April
My chest got better then worse until point where breathing became very shallow and painful. The last few days have seen improvement day after day but I had a point where I did phone 111 to find out at what point do I need help. After asking me list of questions they sent ambulance which arrived almost before I’d put on clean t-shirt they did ecg, blood oxygen level and pressure tests but as my temperature was not at fever they said I was better off out of hospital but to call again if my lips turned blue - yeah! Lol.
I didn’t get tested but I’ve never in my life had such a chest infection or abdominal /kidney pains.
Yep, anecdotal- but am sure happy to be able to breath more easily again!

 

[Ian Skippy]

Interestingly, turns out that Kemp's proposed re-opening of Georgia seems to have some peculiar side-effects:

1) small businesses can no longer claim business interruption insurance because they are 'officially allowed to open' regardless of whether that works or there are any customers.
2) government protections (such as being protected from evictions) no longer apply.
3) furloughed employees must resume working or be fired, their protection ends as well.

Re-opening before it can be safely done is a way to shift the financial burdens and consequences from the insurance companies and government down to the individual citizen.

 

[Ian Skippy]

I first posted here about having symptoms on 6th April.
I’m an ex smoker - gave up on the 6th April
My chest got better then worse until point where breathing became very shallow and painful. The last few days have seen improvement day after day but I had a point where I did phone 111 to find out at what point do I need help. After asking me list of questions they sent ambulance which arrived almost before I’d put on clean t-shirt they did ecg, blood oxygen level and pressure tests but as my temperature was not at fever they said I was better off out of hospital but to call again if my lips turned blue - yeah! Lol.
I didn’t get tested but I’ve never in my life had such a chest infection or abdominal /kidney pains.
Yep, anecdotal- but am sure happy to be able to breath more easily again!

Glad to hear you are on the mend! I am on my second symptom-free day, tomorrow presumably the third and final one and then I can go out and buy some food for the first time in over six weeks!

 

[Northpin]

Oh sure. Just providing some evidence that this (as well as pretty much any other other conceivable opinion) has been floated long before this topic even existed. The important part in such discussions is not yelling random and self-contradicting things ("It is not contagious at all, and far more people are already infected than anyone thinks but it isn't deadly at all and in China tens of millions of people died!") and then claiming 'victory' when one of those things was in line with what some others at some point said, but indeed the cautious, careful and nuanced analysis of data combined with the ability to change your view when new data calls for it.

Well, a lot of measures were taken (or not) based on those initial reports
nah, it's nothing
no, it doesn't spread human to human
its Ro is only 2 so, lucky us, it's not that contagious and it will not spread far

All those proved not that accurate...

Even the death rate - 200% more than flu or 300% more than flu is based on the fact that we assume that fewer of us were infected.
It could be that 10-25% of western population already had it... and that would make the numbers look not that harsh after all...

Now, don't get me wrong, the counter-measures are good but were taken rather later than sooner.
And in the end it will probably circle the globe for 1-2 years and we will learn to live with it (natural immunity and/or vaccines)

 

[Patrick_68000]

In France they estimate that the infected population is less than 6%. A consequence of confinement.

They estimate that between 60-80% of the population must be infected to gain the collective immunity.

Although scientists do not know if the immune defenses against the Covid are effective and for how long.

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[Ralph Vargr]

I first posted here about having symptoms on 6th April.
I’m an ex smoker - gave up on the 6th April
My chest got better then worse until point where breathing became very shallow and painful. The last few days have seen improvement day after day but I had a point where I did phone 111 to find out at what point do I need help. After asking me list of questions they sent ambulance which arrived almost before I’d put on clean t-shirt they did ecg, blood oxygen level and pressure tests but as my temperature was not at fever they said I was better off out of hospital but to call again if my lips turned blue - yeah! Lol.
I didn’t get tested but I’ve never in my life had such a chest infection or abdominal /kidney pains.
Yep, anecdotal- but am sure happy to be able to breath more easily again!

My dad smoked three packs a day of Winstons (since the Korean War). Didn't do my young lungs any good. I never started, and am still paying.

 

[Patrick_68000]

The family of famous British astrophysicist Stephen Hawking donated his personal respirator to the Cambridge hospital that treated him, "in the hope" that it would help in the fight against Covid-19. According to her daughter Lucy Hawking, the Royal Papworth Hospital provided her father with "brilliant, devoted and compassionate" medical support, before his father died at the age of 76 on March 14, 2018.

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[Ian Skippy]

Even the death rate - 200% more than flu or 300% more than flu is based on the fact that we assume that fewer of us were infected.
It could be that 10-25% of western population already had it... and that would make the numbers look not that harsh after all...

The other side of that coin is that despite the strictest measures since world war II COVID19 kills as much people as normally die of all other causes combined. That is quite harsh, in my opinion.

Also, the "it doesn't spread to other humans" bit is a bit lacking in accuracy as to what happened. What the WHO said was that early preliminary results from China suggested it may not spread so readily between humans, while also sharing the full genetic sequence mid January (also provided by China) with all member states for further study and analysis and cautioning that there are, as always, possible hidden risks and dangers. The WHO also actively urged member states to act and formally declared it as a Global Health Emergency as early as January. This is what they said in January:

The Committee agreed that the outbreak now meets the criteria for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern [...] The Committee also acknowledged that there are still many unknowns, cases have now been reported in five WHO regions in one month, and human-to-human transmission has occurred outside Wuhan and outside China. [...] Thus, all countries should be prepared for containment, including active surveillance, early detection, isolation and case management, contact tracing and prevention of onward spread of 2019-nCoV infection.

That some politicians retro-actively translate that to "WHO said it was nothing, we didn't know until late February, don't blame me!" is another matter.

 

[ianw]

The other side of that coin is that despite the strictest measures since world war II COVID19 kills as much people as normally die of all other causes combined. That is quite harsh, in my opinion.

Also, the "it doesn't spread to other humans" bit is a bit lacking in accuracy as to what happened. What the WHO said was that early preliminary results from China suggested it may not spread so readily between humans, while also sharing the full genetic sequence mid January (also provided by China) with all member states for further study and analysis and cautioning that there are, as always, possible hidden risks and dangers. The WHO also actively urged member states to act and formally declared it as a Global Health Emergency as early as January. This is what they said in January:



That some politicians retro-actively translate that to "WHO said it was nothing, we didn't know until late February, don't blame me!" is another matter.

Yes - I've been reading some the early WHO output over the last few days. It seems that some countries took it more seriously and went earlier whereas we in the UK slow off the mark.

I can understand it up to a point - most people wouldn't want to take draconian measures until they felt they absolutely had to. From my pov in the UK that moment was when it was declared a pandemic mid March.

From the WHO pov they knew they were telling people to take it seriously way before then and I recall them saying they didn't think some countries were acting fast enough - but I can't help feeling that some places were waiting for the p word as the moment to be decisive. So from that point of view it might have helped had it have been called earlier. With hindsight of course.

 

[Northpin]

The other side of that coin is that despite the strictest measures since world war II COVID19 kills as much people as normally die of all other causes combined. That is quite harsh, in my opinion.

Also, the "it doesn't spread to other humans" bit is a bit lacking in accuracy as to what happened. What the WHO said was that early preliminary results from China suggested it may not spread so readily between humans, while also sharing the full genetic sequence mid January (also provided by China) with all member states for further study and analysis and cautioning that there are, as always, possible hidden risks and dangers. The WHO also actively urged member states to act and formally declared it as a Global Health Emergency as early as January. This is what they said in January:

WHO said:

The Committee agreed that the outbreak now meets the criteria for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern [...] The Committee also acknowledged that there are still many unknowns, cases have now been reported in five WHO regions in one month, and human-to-human transmission has occurred outside Wuhan and outside China. [...] Thus, all countries should be prepared for containment, including active surveillance, early detection, isolation and case management, contact tracing and prevention of onward spread of 2019-nCoV infection.

That some politicians retro-actively translate that to "WHO said it was nothing, we didn't know until late February, don't blame me!" is another matter.

It was too little too late.

By the time Wuhan entered in lockdown (January 23rd) it already had spread outside of China.
WHO declared Public Health Emergency of International Concern by January 30th
By the time other countries entered in lockdown, it already had spread in their communities and to the rest of the world.
WHO announced it as a Pandemic on March 11th

 

[Synkreto]

I thought we had weird people on off-topic but not flat out loons.

The dissonance is just amazing

It was too little too late.

By the time Wuhan entered in lockdown (January 23rd) it already had spread outside of China.
WHO declared Public Health Emergency of International Concern by January 30th
By the time other countries entered in lockdown, it already had spread in their communities and to the rest of the world.
WHO announced it as a Pandemic on March 11th

I was trying to find some weblink to what the WHO did starting January 1st 2020, could not find any in short time . I can only advise to watch the latest 2 WHO briefings ( 18th and 20th April ), and listen carefully to wha Dr .v. Kerkhoeve, Dr. Ryan and Dr. Tedros say during the Q&A session .IIrc, Dr. van Kerkhoeve says at least once that as early as Jan 05, WHO put out information to the memberstates advising as to preparedness , and right from the start - even if not explicitly stating it to be so ( simply because it was not known/prooven ) - the risk of human to human transmission was inccorporated in everything they advised, just out of experience . Again, I have not found web sources yet. so would have to go with what they say in front of the World .

In any case : for a given country to blame the WHO to have informed too late is ridiculous . For instance, there constantly are CDC people embedded into WHO, and other US officials . Same goes for experts from other countries . Another thing : member states had asked WHO for clarification on reports from China/Wuhan end december already, and WHO responded . ANYONE who claims they did not know, and its WHOs fault, simply tries to defelct responibility imho .

 

[Northpin]

I was trying to find some weblink to what the WHO did starting January 1st 2020

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - events as they happen

Latest updates on COVID-19

www.who.int

I'm not really blaming WHO, not so sure about China - they did downplayed it for a while and their censorship worked to achieve that.

The point is, it was simply downplayed on a wider level.
Ro was 6 not 2, long incubation, deceiving flu like symptoms, asymptomatic carriers/spreaders

Would the WHO and the nations acted differently if they knew the real level of contagiousness?

This pandemic should be analyzed and, like in a giant plane crash, a thorough inquiry should be performed
Not to find someone to blame for, but to setup measures, guidelines and procedures so we will be better prepared next time.

There are slim chances that China will shutdown wet markets and live animal markets.
And those are common through out Asia and Africa

 

[Ian Skippy]

Benefits and Risks of Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine in The Treatment of Viral Diseases: A Meta-Analysis of Placebo Randomized Controlled Trials

Background and Objective Recently, in the scramble to find drugs to treat COVID-19, chloroquine (CQ) and its derivative hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) have rapidly gained the public’s attention. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to evaluate the efficacy...

www.medrxiv.org

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Trinidad and Tobago
Community level testing started yesterday at Health Centres, targeting patients that are suspiciously symptomatic. MoH reports on the first set as 100% all negative.

• 8 deaths
• 115 total cases
• nobody in ICU

Active cases declining. 79 now.

PPE components dropped off here today. I'll deliver to my centre later.
Showed the cyclone extractor to the engineer, and unsurprisingly he was skeptical. Autoclave paper filtration tests are due back today.

More PPE experimental components went to CardioThoracic surgery for assessment.

Got a package of materials from the University team to continue independent work on respirators.
Expecting a guy from Pathology dept later.