General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Synkreto]

I'm a firm believer in the idea that security means nothing without freedom, and that freedom which only exists as long as it's not actually exercised is no freedom at all, but I really do wish people would use some restraint when it's in the best interests of themselves and especially others.

Security does not exist, the illusion of and desire for is a function of your brain/psyche ( accepting psyche is the one who perceives and interprets, and your brain is doing all the processing - it does more ofc ).

Thing is, in Germany, Freedom and constitution ( actually, "Grundgesetz" ) are not in Jeopardy, at all .

The measures being put in place are time limited; every time they are instituted/prolongued/change...every time politics reconsiders, there is an expiry date added ( 14 days usually so far, and all that stuff is legally binding ), and politics has to reconsider before the expiry date . Also, Federal Dept. of HealthCare is given special powers under §5 of "Infektionsschutzgesetz" ( Infection Protection Act ), which applies in "Epidemic situation of national importance" . So, once the Pandemic is over, all those powers are gone, also . And its not like HealthCare is stealthily deporting people into forced quarantine at night...more like "Keep your Business closed ! NO, you can NOT play soccer with your mates!" and that kind of stuff...

Much Ado About Nothing

In other news, latest Abacaba Video . He is going way more into detail and math, great Stuff really :

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnQcbAKWkPE

 

[Synkreto]

Just found another great one :

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e02eiX866N4

 

[Ian Skippy]

If you think Germany is doing great, hold on to your hats folks!

 

[Morbad]

The measures being put in place are time limited; every time they are instituted/prolongued/change...every time politics reconsiders, there is an expiry date added ( 14 days usually so far, and all that stuff is legally binding ), and politics has to reconsider before the expiry date . Also, Federal Dept. of HealthCare is given special powers under §5 of "Infektionsschutzgesetz" ( Infection Protection Act ), which applies in "Epidemic situation of national importance" . So, once the Pandemic is over, all those powers are gone, also . And its not like HealthCare is stealthily deporting people into forced quarantine at night...more like "Keep your Business closed ! NO, you can NOT play soccer with your mates!" and that kind of stuff...

Much Ado About Nothing

By their very nature restrictions, even temporary ones, are impositions on freedom. Ideally, people shouldn't have to be coerced, and any time they are, there will complaints.

Also, not all areas have the same legal protection from governments and authorities using abusing measures to permanently amass power at the expense of those being governed. Plenty of precedents being set that are going to be problematic later.

Justice is supposed to be blind, but laws and their enforcement rarely are. Those who can be responsible have to suffer under the same same restrictions as those who need them.

If you think Germany is doing great, hold on to your hats folks!

How'd Yemen get a test kit?

 

[Synkreto]

By their very nature restrictions, even temporary ones, are impositions on freedom. Ideally, people shouldn't have to be coerced, and any time they are, there will complaints.

Also, not all areas have the same legal protection from governments and authorities using abusing measures to permanently amass power at the expense of those being governed. Plenty of precedents being set that are going to be problematic later.

Justice is supposed to be blind, but laws and their enforcement rarely are. Those who can be responsible have to suffer under the same same restrictions as those who need them.

How'd Yemen get a test kit?

If you outsource your freedom to any type of authority which is able to restrict it, you lost it already . No matter what the German government does, it can not restrict my freedom . It has no power over what I assume freedom to be .

If German government would NOT reconsider measures within the self imposed timelimit, or if they would not implement that expiry date, then we would have a case . Or lets say if regulations put in place under IfSG would not be nulled once Pandemic is over . As it is at the moment....a pretty diverse bunch of political and otherwise careeer opportunists are drumming up resistance against politics doing a really great job in protecting the health of as many people as possible. Who would have thunk ?

Iirc, its that useless, obsolete, corrupt bunch of know-nothings from the WHO ( <- thats irony btw, just making sure... ) keeping people in Yemen alive...for years now...and also supplying them with the occasional test kit, mask and gown among other things .

 

[Synkreto]

If you think Germany is doing great, hold on to your hats folks!

Proooobably a bit iffy to get people tested in Yemen at this time XD .

 

[Factabulous]

Any insights into how Germany are testing that has allowed them to get such a good outcome?

In the UK we're trying to ramp up testing - and the tests go to people in 'key' jobs that have symptoms. This is fine (as these are supposedly the most mobile workers, and we obviously don't want them transmitting the virus), but:

• If you're asymptomatic then you won't be tested, and will carry on spreading the virus - not good
• If you have symptoms you should already be self-isolating, so a positive test just means 'carry on isolating' and a negative means 'back to work'. So the only thing the test (as we are doing it) will do is send a small number of infected people with false-negative test results back to their key jobs

So I guess Germany is doing testing differently, and I wonder what the next step should be in the UK (I'm presuming regular testing of all key workers, but maybe there's something I'm missing?)

 

[Factabulous]

Apparently, they are investigating the possibility that the virus could stick to and create "clumps" with certain types of fine particulate, typical of very polluted/urban areas, allowing it to diffuse more easily and on longer distances even airborne. Considering the horrible air quality of the Padan Plain, where the vast majority of cases has and is still happening, it could as well be another factor to be considered outside of the more obvious higher density/km and wider diffusion of high frequency Illuminati networks. Still a long shot from being something verified or verifiable though (last time I checked, at least).

Seems so, not peer reviewed yet:

Coronavirus detected on particles of air pollution

Exclusive: Scientists examine whether this route may enable infections at longer distances

www.theguardian.com

Let's hope the reduction in cases countries are seeing isn't all down to the reduced air pollution (seems unlikely as person to person would still be far more effective - though I would not be surprised to see upcoming dystopian fiction built around this new form of killer pollution)

 

[Synkreto]

Any insights into how Germany are testing that has allowed them to get such a good outcome?

In the UK we're trying to ramp up testing - and the tests go to people in 'key' jobs that have symptoms. This is fine (as these are supposedly the most mobile workers, and we obviously don't want them transmitting the virus), but:

• If you're asymptomatic then you won't be tested, and will carry on spreading the virus - not good
• If you have symptoms you should already be self-isolating, so a positive test just means 'carry on isolating' and a negative means 'back to work'. So the only thing the test (as we are doing it) will do is send a small number of infected people with false-negative test results back to their key jobs

So I guess Germany is doing testing differently, and I wonder what the next step should be in the UK (I'm presuming regular testing of all key workers, but maybe there's something I'm missing?)

First, it is important to understand the technicals : The testing "kit" ( better: protocol ) has been shared for free, worldwide . In effect, that means that every Laboratory in Germany can produce the kits, and - provided the equipment is there - also get results. No centralization . There are I think over 600 private, University and State medical laboratories in Germany. Steps are still being undertaken to go higher in capacity, by for instance getting veterinary Labs in .

As to the criteria, RKI has changed those lately . If you are interested, I can provide the intial criteria . The current version ( afaik ) is this :

Meldung

translate.google.com

Scroll down to "RKI criteria for testing for SARS - CoV -2"

( this is not the actual RKI page - links to those are at the bottom - but the information is accurate, and the page is easier to tranlsate than the RKI resources ) .

 

[Factabulous]

First, it is important to understand the technicals : The testing "kit" ( better: protocol ) has been shared for free, worldwide . In effect, that means that every Laboratory in Germany can produce the kits, and - provided the equipment is there - also get results. No centralization . There are I think over 600 private, University and State medical laboratories in Germany. Steps are still being undertaken to go higher in capacity, by for instance getting veterinary Labs in .

As to the criteria, RKI has changed those lately . If you are interested, I can provide the intial criteria . The current version ( afaik ) is this :

Meldung

translate.google.com

Scroll down to "RKI criteria for testing for SARS - CoV -2"

( this is not the actual RKI page - links to those are at the bottom - but the information is accurate, and the page is easier to tranlsate than the RKI resources ) .

Thanks! Ok, so even Germany doesn't test for the asymptomatic (makes sense, there are a lot of them!). I guess the identification of contacts must be the difference - pretty sure we're not doing that in the UK yet - except in shared households.

I wondered if key workers can say 'Colleague X has the virus, can I get tested as I worked with them in the last 14 days' - but seems not (https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-getting-tested#who-can-be-tested) - just family.

 

[Synkreto]

Forgot to include the following important Information : The vast majority of tests in germany intially has been and I think still is actually done by general practitioners . And: as long as testing is done in line with RKI criteria, there is no cost for the patient associated .

 

[Synkreto]

Thanks! Ok, so even Germany doesn't test for the asymptomatic (makes sense, there are a lot of them!). I guess the identification of contacts must be the difference - pretty sure we're not doing that in the UK yet - except in shared households.

I wondered if key workers can say 'Colleague X has the virus, can I get tested as I worked with them in the last 14 days' - but seems not (https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-getting-tested#who-can-be-tested) - just family.

I can only speculate, have not read anything by RKI and WHO on asymptomatics...among the reasons I could come up without much thinking really are
:

• to be able to have an Idea of possible impact on HealthCare - and prepare accordingly - you want to know the people with symptoms/problems ;
• its far easier to tell a person who actually feels a/the sickness to self isolate/qurantine ( I do not dare to think what would happen if some official would mandate a "perfectly healthy person" to quarantine for an unknwon period of time XD ) ;
• people having developed symptoms are highly contagious presymptomatically, so to identify clusters/stop/break transmission chains ( more ) effectively, you need to get these ; asymptomatics may transmit, but I always had the impression of "details unknown" ;

Pls. correct and/or add .

 

[Para Handy]

........... I guess the identification of contacts must be the difference - pretty sure we're not doing that in the UK yet - except in shared households.
........

We did this to start with then inexplicably (to me) stopped test, track and quarantine and opted for "herd immunity through population infection".

"On 11 March, the day before Boris Johnson told the nation that the coronavirus sweeping the UK could no longer be contained and that testing for Covid-19 would stop except for the seriously ill in hospital, the head of No 10’s “nudge unit” gave a brief interview to the BBC.

At the time it was barely noticed – it was budget day, after all. With hindsight, it seems astonishing.

“There’s going to be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows as it will do, where you want to cocoon, to protect those at-risk groups so they don’t catch the disease,” said Dr David Halpern. “By the time they come out of their cocooning, herd immunity has been achieved in the rest of the population.”

Of course nobody bothered to set in place a method of protecting all those vulnerable people bottle-up together in care homes and so goodness knows just how many care-home deaths there have actually been, they are not included in the NHS hospital deaths. Not very "cocooned" to my mind.

So over 20 thousand deaths later, rate of over 4 per 100,000 population - someone needs to be brought to book for that policy.

BTW - I wonder if in fact the rumours that "Dominic Cummings argued to 'let old people die'" were actually true.

 

[Banger_uk]

well if trump has he way!! you will be injected with disinfectant very soon

 

[Morbad]

A reminder from the WHO to not make any premature assumptions about immunity...

As of 24 April 2020, no study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans.

"Immunity passports" in the context of COVID-19

Scientific Brief

www.who.int

 

[Factabulous]

Interesting interview with Christian Drosten (Director of Institute of Virology at the Charité Hospital in Berlin). Touches on testing and worries about second waves.

Germany's Covid-19 expert: 'For many, I'm the evil guy crippling the economy'

Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten on Merkel’s leadership, the UK response and the ‘prevention paradox’Coronavirus – latest updatesSee all our coronavirus coverage

www.theguardian.com

 

[WeComeInPeace]

We did this to start with then inexplicably (to me) stopped test, track and quarantine and opted for "herd immunity through population infection".

"On 11 March, the day before Boris Johnson told the nation that the coronavirus sweeping the UK could no longer be contained and that testing for Covid-19 would stop except for the seriously ill in hospital, the head of No 10’s “nudge unit” gave a brief interview to the BBC.

At the time it was barely noticed – it was budget day, after all. With hindsight, it seems astonishing.

“There’s going to be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows as it will do, where you want to cocoon, to protect those at-risk groups so they don’t catch the disease,” said Dr David Halpern. “By the time they come out of their cocooning, herd immunity has been achieved in the rest of the population.”

Of course nobody bothered to set in place a method of protecting all those vulnerable people bottle-up together in care homes and so goodness knows just how many care-home deaths there have actually been, they are not included in the NHS hospital deaths. Not very "cocooned" to my mind.

So over 20 thousand deaths later, rate of over 4 per 100,000 population - someone needs to be brought to book for that policy.

BTW - I wonder if in fact the rumours that "Dominic Cummings argued to 'let old people die'" were actually true.

When the epidemic started in Europe, around mid January, there were only a few cases reported. Even though the virus is very contagious, a few patients running around among hundreds of millions of people, only causes relatively few new daily cases. Back then people thought that they could trace almost all cases. Then stories starting popping up, like asymptomatic infections, and once the focus finally was drawn to Europe, many people were infected. Most of them were probably infected during skiing holy-days in the alps, especially at the afterski bars.

After the winter holidays, the numbers exploded, like a boiling pot lifting the lid, suddenly revealing some sort of scale of the true situation. Then testing started "for real", and we quickly realized that there simply wasn't tests enough available, and that often they were giving false results. It also became clear in some studies from China, that more than half of the patients had been infected by someone asymptomatic. That was when most countries in Europe shifted from tracing and isolating to damage control. Since then there has been story upon story about the "tests arriving in millions next week", but that hasn't happened, so right now the only strategy available is isolation.

 

[ZeroAi]

Well, it's official - COVID-19 has eclipsed the FLU for deaths in the last 12 months :-(

I know we've likely peaked, but I would guess we're still likely to hit 80K :-(

Plus, I think a lot of the January and February Flu Deaths might have unknowingly been COVID-19 :-(

But I still think the worst thing might be a global depression - I'm really, really hoping for a strong comeback, and not a long recovery...

My mom, a nurse for over forty years, died in 2010. She would be sad to see this.

:-( So sad for you - my parents are getting up their in age so every visit is precious, but COVID-19 is now preventing that :-(

 

[WeComeInPeace]

Well, it's official - COVID-19 has eclipsed the FLU for deaths in the last 12 months :-(

I know we've likely peaked, but I would guess we're still likely to hit 80K :-(

Plus, I think a lot of the January and February Flu Deaths might have unknowingly been COVID-19 :-(

But I still think the worst thing might be a global depression - I'm really, really hoping for a strong comeback, and not a long recovery...

Right now there are 10-100 million active cases worldwide. The graph of the number of active reported cases has flattened somewhat in the recent weeks, but it's far from over.

Currently we are opening up the lockdowns all over the World. That means that the growth rate will return to some sort of exponential growth. Last time we saw exponential growth, before the global lockdown, the growth rate was ~20% per day. When you had growth like that the doubling time was 3-4 days. Back then there were only a "few" thousand cases outside China. Now there many millions, meaning that a doubling will be many millions as well, then 4 times that, 8 times etc. Because the number of unreported cases is so high, this will mean that a large part of the global population will get infected in the next couple of weeks, and then it will be too late for anything else than the doctors and nurses leaving the hospitals in despair, and those people are used to see a lot of agony.

Once that happens, we will probably see governments changing strategies again, once they realize they "screwed" up. The new strategy will be to get it over with, in an effort to save the economy. That however is questionable, because even with a ratio of reported vs unreported cases of 1:30, only ~100 million has been infected, equaling 1/78th of the global population. That's 1.2% meaning that in the last 3-4 months we have dealt with that, and that now most of the 98.8 % left will get infected in the next two months. Yeehaw indeed.

After the peak, which will happen at earliest in ~two months, the World will be stunned, but more and more herd immunity will slow the growth more and more. Some weeks after the peak people will probably start rebuilding whatever is left. Do you think the global economy can withstand that without more than a depression? I'd be surprised.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Rumor has it...
That North Korean leader KJU has died of cardiac complications following surgery. He was male, obese, and a heavy smoker - all risk factors for Covid 19 as well. Age 37.

There is no way to ascertain the facts. North Korea has admitted zero cases of the illness. He may still be alive.