General / Off-Topic The safest place

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Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
2502 dead in 24 hours in the United States.

After two days of slowdown on Sunday and Monday, this new jump (+2,502 exactly) brings the American balance sheet to 60,853 deaths in total since the start of the pandemic, according to figures continuously updated by the university.

Are the United States in the peak of the epidemic or simply on a long-term plateau ?

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Synkreto

Synkreto
Patrick_68000 said:
2502 dead in 24 hours in the United States.

After two days of slowdown on Sunday and Monday, this new jump (+2,502 exactly) brings the American balance sheet to 60,853 deaths in total since the start of the pandemic, according to figures continuously updated by the university.

Are the United States in the peak of the epidemic or simply on a long-term plateau ?

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It seems to me while NYS is slowing down for a while already, other States are starting to pick up speed .
 

Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
Ca$hback said:
Australia a safe space? They're at least as racist as Quebec. Then there's the spiders and lizards.
Met a nice australian once.
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(he said: "I'm from New Zealand, mate.")
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At the beginning of the post, I thought you met Crocodile Dundee.

:)

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Factabulous

Factabulous
Patrick_68000 said:
After two days of slowdown on Sunday and Monday, this new jump (+2,502 exactly) brings the American balance sheet to 60,853 deaths in total since the start of the pandemic, according to figures continuously updated by the university.
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I imagine they suffer from similar issues to other countries - deaths are under-reported on weekends, and then catch up as everyone is 'in the office' on Monday/Tuesday.

In the UK they started pushing more a 7-day-average death number because every weekend the press report the 'good news' of falling death numbers, and every Monday/Tuesday they report in horror at the increased death rate. Every.single.week.
 

Chris Simon

Chris Simon
Factabulous said:
I imagine they suffer from similar issues to other countries - deaths are under-reported on weekends, and then catch up as everyone is 'in the office' on Monday/Tuesday.

In the UK they started pushing more a 7-day-average death number because every weekend the press report the 'good news' of falling death numbers, and every Monday/Tuesday they report in horror at the increased death rate. Every.single.week.
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I think that even more helpful to the general anti-panic efforts would be if they started reporting people who died TO cv-19's compications and people who simply died WITH cv-19 separately.
From what I'm seeing, there actually doesn't seem to be a significant increase in an average weekly death rate during the current epidepic.
In other words - around 9500 people die in UK weekly. About a half a million a year (according to 2017-2018 averages). Of old age, terminal illness, etc. (accidents aren't included). And from the data I have available, there aren't many more people dying weekly, during this outbreak. It's just that some of them now also have COVID-19.

I am not downplaying the pandemic - some people who wouldn't have to die otherwise clearly died BECAUSE OF corona virus and that is tragic. NHS workers inparticular who are in contact with high concentrations of the virus. And there are people who would have died to COVID-19 and adjacent complications but didn't because of the medical care tha's been made available to them.
But overall, I simply don't see the need for panic and media should include ALL deaths in the country to put things in perspective.

What is more concerning is that due to the pandemic, almost all medical efforts are focused on it and many other areas are neglected. Periodical check-ups of diabetics, breast cancer screening, etc... These things have a potential to cause more deaths down the line than COVID-19 ever could.
 
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Factabulous

Factabulous
Chris Simon said:
I think that even more helpful to the general anti-panic efforts would be if they started reporting people who died TO cv-19's compications and people who simply died WITH cv-19 separately.
From what I'm seeing, there actually doesn't seem to be a significant increase in an average weekly death rate during the current epidepic.
In other words - around 9500 people die in UK weekly. About a half a million a year (according to 2017-2018 averages). Of old age, terminal illness, etc. (accidents aren't included). And from the data I have available, there aren't many more people dying weekly, during this outbreak. It's just that some of them now also have COVID-19.

I am not downplaying the pandemic - some people who wouldn't have to die otherwise clearly died BECAUSE OF corona virus and that is tragic. NHS workers inparticular who are in contact with high concentrations of the virus.
But overall, I simply don't see the need for panic and media should include ALL deaths in the country to put things in perspective.

What is more concerning is that due to the pandemic, almost all medical efforts are focused on it and many other areas are neglected. Periodical check-ups of diabetics, breast cancer screening, etc... These things have a potential to cause more deaths down the line than COVID-19 ever could.
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That's why they talk in the govt briefings about about excess deaths being the important measure as it captures all deaths above those normal ones. Sounds like they are saying 30k excess deaths at the moment (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/how-many-people-are-dying-of-covid-19-in-the-uk - right at the end of the article). So around a 18% uptick on normal. Not a reason to panic, but I would also say it is a reason to react.

Of course your 9500 number is wrong for this time of year (I bet flu deaths make the number higher in January, and lower later in the year), and Covid19 wasn't killing many at the start of January, which is why most people are saying an accurate 'excess deaths' number will always lag, and so not be a good number to base actions upon . Lots more stats linked through that article, but I am no stats expert so don't know how worried I should be by a 'Z' number 🤷‍♂️

Edit: Ofc there are confounding factors even with 'excess deaths' as there are reports that the reduced air pollution is actually reducing deaths. (https://www.theguardian.com/environ...e-during-lockdown-leads-to-11000-fewer-deaths). <sigh> Nothing is easy.
 
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Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
Factabulous said:
I imagine they suffer from similar issues to other countries - deaths are under-reported on weekends, and then catch up as everyone is 'in the office' on Monday/Tuesday.

In the UK they started pushing more a 7-day-average death number because every weekend the press report the 'good news' of falling death numbers, and every Monday/Tuesday they report in horror at the increased death rate. Every.single.week.
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Yes, it is absolutely true.

What is important is the figures in a whole.

Hospitals, retirement homes, home (to come in a few months in the latter case).

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Ian Skippy

Ian Skippy
More bad news. :/

K8mGCzl.jpg


:p
 

Para Handy

Para Handy
Why we should keep US medical companies out of UK post-Brexit:

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: Why so many US nurses are out of work

At a time when many healthcare workers are risking their lives, some face pay cuts and job loss.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk

"One of the biggest issues in US medicine today is that it has become a business. ........They tend to run very lean with these hospitals, with these large corporate medical groups because honestly they are much more concerned about profit than their patients,"

"It's hard not to realise how drastically we need to return the focus of medicine away from business and back to caring for our patients."


I hope Boris' dicing with death episode leads to a better appreciation of our NHS in the Tory party (they know the cost of everything but the value of nothing).
 

WeComeInPeace

WeComeInPeace
Para Handy said:
I hope Boris' dicing with death episode leads to a better appreciation of our NHS in the Tory party (they know the cost of everything but the value of nothing).
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Yes, that will be interesting to observe. I've had exactly the same thought, but you probably won't hear him say it in public. I don't know the guy, but it seems to me that you don't become PM by having too many altruistic ideas once the doors are closed.
 

Wotthe Dickens

Wotthe Dickens
Don’t forget 100,000 tests by end of April or ppe delivery tomorrow/day after/next week.
But actually, yeah maybe we are over peek in uk. I think the rain has helped by keeping people in too.
 

Gortron

Gortron
Patrick_68000 said:
Boris said the epidemic peak is over in the UK.

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I hope so but people are seriously starting to break the rules, and far too early. There has been a huge increase in road use this week, far worse than the government is suggesting (I'm a key worker so have been going to work and back the whole time this has gone on).

Road use where I live where public transport isn't good is up well over 100% on last week. It isn't far from normal now really. All the roadside food outlets are back. Local bakeries are opening. DIY stores opening. Where I've started to run next to where I work (because so many people were out walking and such it was impossible to social distance) and that has been deserted for weeks (near a decommissioning nuclear power station) I saw 9 people on my last run, so up 900%.

I fear we are going to have a massive second peak in the UK. There are mixed messages that are going to come back and bite us in the Derriere! :oops:
 

Gortron

Gortron
WeComeInPeace said:
Yes, that will be interesting to observe. I've had exactly the same thought, but you probably won't hear him say it in public. I don't know the guy, but it seems to me that you don't become PM by having too many altruistic ideas once the doors are closed.
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I think many people have had a similar thought but your ultimate conclusion seems a bit harsh. If you want to be rich then there are far better ways than becoming PM of the UK (the pay isn't that good really). Most people that want to run the show probably think they are doing it for the right reasons. Even politicians I strongly object to being PM I don't think are doing it for money. They are trying to change the country they love for the better (even though 50% of people will disagree).

There are narcissists, psychopaths and sociopaths that might like to run a county but I don't think Boris falls into those categories.

Mods; The subject is poticial but I don't think my response is?
 
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