Some of the ships made it to their destinations. But what I don't understand is that given that there was around 70,000 generation ships launched, why have we only ever found a handfull of them. With the fss scanner now you'd have thought that there would have been thousands discovered now. I genuinely don't think FDev have put many in the game.
Well that was kind of what I was wondering, and presuming the generation ships were sub-light, but almost translumial, say 0.8-0.9c, and around a thousand years from departure to now, it is a very big search zone we have. But I see no reason we couldn't stumble across old tech sublight human colonies ~700-900 LY from sol.
I've spent the morning on canonn's website going through all the generation ships, there was one in particular that I had seen my self in game, but couldnt mind its name, but reading through the lot of them there were some interesting finds. There was one of the generation ships, the Venusian, that seemed to have been caught by more modern pirate humans who enslaved the occupants, it was interesting as they mentioned these pirate ships first following them then entering supercruise, I thought supercruise was after the generation ships? There was also another one where the crew did make it down to a planet only to find the wildlife too wild for them, RIP the crew of the Phobos.
Another generation ships logs were more optimistic, it gave me hope of finding at least one exclave of generation ship colonists, coincidentally the ships name was the spear of hope. The logs we get from the datalink terminals are written from the perspective of a technician, who took a year round trip to repair/retrieve one of the few remaining long range sensor probes used to scan planets, but after completing that mission they came back to a ghost ship. Their logs continue essentially stating that the crew had, in his absence, found a viable planet and jumped onto it with a full on evacuation, five thousand people left the ship in about an hour. So the remainder of the crew made it planetside, but did their colony succeed or flounder?
And the same existential question could be asked of the lazarus expedition's numerous deployments, essentially they had a catastrophic systems failure that rendered their propulsion system inoperable and irreparable, so they cannibalised the lazarus (their generation ship) and built an unspecified number of "life ships" each of which was launched towards a different, relatively close by, habitable planet, as they were not keen on the idea of
"putting all our eggs in one basket so to speak".
Meanwhile we know the atlas found a suitable planet and launched their crew at it, what became of them? The logs we read are written by a technician who was the last man onboard, given the evacuation required them to have one man onboard to launch the pods, and he having volunteered for the unenviable task of being that guy.
So of our sample size of fifteen, we know of three genaration ships that likely produced colonies, in the case of the lazarus, maybe multiple colonies, so approximately 20% managed to put their personnel on a colonizable planet. Given teh figure of 70,000 generation ships launched, that gives us hope of there being 14,000 colonies started thus. Assuming not all such settlements succeed, ala the fate of the phobos colonists, and taking that as a ratio, 1 in three attempts we know ended in misery, say one in two ended in misery, that still leaves 7,000 settlements. Yes some of them will be chewed up by superpowers, or evolved into modern independent systems, even say two thirds of those colonies reintegrated, that leaves us with ~2,700 succesful gen.ship colonies to find