scsiborg said:
no one is saying rush, just when do you expect a release. The old faithful are little fed up - 1993 since elite 2 - to 2006 and counting. Why is is such a difficult question?
I cannot speak for Frontier, but as a full time software developer and independant games developer I can try to answer this question for you.
To begin with, estimating software development times is hard, a particular module on average might take between one and two weeks to code. You only tend to know which it will be after the first week has gone by. There are many reasons for this and trying to solve this problem and measure programming time is the focus of the discipline of software engineering. An excellent book on the sunbject is "The mythical man-month" by Fred Brooks:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month
On a normal 10 module project for example (based on the fairly arbitrary times given above), you'd probably estimate a development time of fifteen weeks. Assuming that all those 1-2 week modules would average out.
In addition to these basics there are other factors which make it even less easy to predict development time. For example, if you have inexperienced staff, they will take *much* longer to produce the same product as experienced developers. If you are developing in a low level language, as almost all games are, the time variance widens again.
Most pertinant for Elite IV is that if you are developing new technologies, it becomes almost impossible to estimate the time taken to develop those modules. New technical solutions to problems such as terrain mapping on a planetary scale, happen in fits and starts. One week you might progress rapidly, the next is spent following a series of dead ends. Its largely unknown territory.
With a project the size of Elite IV, probably hundreds of thousands of lines of code, and many new technologies. The most accurate answer you could be given may be "between two and five years". Giving any indication of release date is a no win option for Frontier. If they are optimistic, they will be slammed when the release date passes, and if they are pessimistic, everybody will be disapponted, perhaps for no reason.