After Odyssey

[PiLhEaD]

I've been away from ED for a while and wondered, after the unreserved joy and love that greeted Odyssey, if we had any news or hints for the future?

. Is there going to be another such 'large release' (aka DLC)?
. Are we getting any new ships? (Feel free to groan and mumble about the Panther Clipper)
. Have there been any hints about landing on atmospheric planets or interacting with gas giants?
. When will we get dinosaur safaris?

Apologies if this has been covered elswhere - but after a half-hearted attempt I've given up trying to search... although I did stumble over this nugget (of the purest green):

As for the future of Elite Dangerous on PC, Braben says Frontier will share more information on what's next for the space sim "in due course".

and:

 

[Hooplah]

We can always hope per 39 years since Ian Bell and David Braben started this journey. Then a 17 year pause between Frontier: First Encounters and Elite Dangerous crowd funding. Today they don't tell us much even in the live streams other than minor current content. As for atmospheric planets Odyssey has nudged it a little with the planetary graphics. Still keep your DOS 6.22 PC working so you can land in New York City in Frontier: Elite II.

 

[zimms]

Frontier don't talk about anything that's more than a week away. We can't answer any of these questions, better ask your Magic 8 Ball.

 

[amigacooke]

Frontier have come up with this clever wheeze where all future development is claimed as part of the ongoing narrative and therefore can't be revealed as it will 'spoil it' for us. Luckily, Frontier remain very excited by what's coming.

 

[londonx]

As for the future of Elite Dangerous on PC, Braben says Frontier will share more information on what's next for the space sim "in due course".

where was that quote from? This year? Edit: quote comes from March 2022 when Consoles were cancelled (gosh a year), March 2022 was before the New Narrative which so far consists of Updates 14, 15 (end of April) and 16 (Summer)

Lots of hints have been made about the planet tech in Odyssey having been built to enable access to other planet types, even the reasoning behind it sort of makes that obvious. The business logic of gated content by planet type seems glaringly pragmatic especially as this is what has happened for the two DLCs so far. The roadmap for 2023 also only shows us upto the Summer period for Update 16 which is quite unusual for Frontier, they would normally give a year roadmap, even during the years when there was not that much going on.

 

[zimms]

I very much doubt U16 would come in summer. I think this pretty much is the full 2023 roadmap.

 

[amigacooke]

I very much doubt U16 would come in summer. I think this pretty much is the full 2023 roadmap.

Isn't the wording for U16 'later in the year'?

 

[CMDR Karrde Sun]

I thought fleet carriers was the panther clipper. I doubt there's a more localised way to have a ship with other ships coming out of it.

 

[londonx]

Thats true must have added the typical "quarterly" update schedule together to come up with that, cant find any explicit quote about it, just "later in the year". Also the previous livestream confirmed that the Key Feature overhaul is still a thing for 2023 so if that is seperate to Update 16 as is likely then that could be a full year of dev. But the unusual reluctance to span a year is still telling.

This still leaves a possibility that there is a large chunk of development going on in parrallel on a new DLC, they would have to do that for a 2024 release, thinking things like art assets rather than final polish.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

. Is there going to be another such 'large release' (aka DLC)?

Highly unlikely in the short term - the game is still profitable according to Frontier's financial reports, but not profitable enough to support Odyssey- or Horizons- level development costs without significant cross-subsidy. So they'd be relying on the DLC itself being a big success (500k+ sales) which would be a very big risk at the moment. Maybe if there was a sustained recovery in player numbers to pre-Odyssey levels they might consider it: things like the new Thargoid War content have helped things go in the right direction but it would likely take years.

Smaller Beyond- level developments are more likely to continue: the changes made recently with the Live/Legacy split don't make sense if they're intending to stop that level of development.

. Are we getting any new ships? (Feel free to groan and mumble about the Panther Clipper)
. Have there been any hints about landing on atmospheric planets or interacting with gas giants?
. When will we get dinosaur safaris

Nothing said either way on new ships.

With the unlikeliness of new major developments, probably not before 2030 even in the absolute best case for dense atmospherics/gas giants, and not before 2040 for dinosaur safaris. And "never" is obviously the far more likely answer for both.

 

[Dillon Fallon]

If you're going to go full optimist and look at the gap between Horizons and Odyssey releases (which is no basis for a timeline, but I did say wild optimism) you're really looking at 2027.

That's with a similar development window, assuming similar complexity to Odyssey and a launch product of similar quality.

Based on that I think we should be hoping for a post 2030 release.

 

[londonx]

Highly unlikely in the short term - the game is still profitable according to Frontier's financial reports, but not profitable enough to support Odyssey- or Horizons- level development costs without significant cross-subsidy. So they'd be relying on the DLC itself being a big success (500k+ sales) which would be a very big risk at the moment. Maybe if there was a sustained recovery in player numbers to pre-Odyssey levels they might consider it: things like the new Thargoid War content have helped things go in the right direction but it would likely take years.

Smaller Beyond- level developments are more likely to continue: the changes made recently with the Live/Legacy split don't make sense if they're intending to stop that level of development.


Nothing said either way on new ships.

With the unlikeliness of new major developments, probably not before 2030 even in the absolute best case for dense atmospherics/gas giants, and not before 2040 for dinosaur safaris. And "never" is obviously the far more likely answer for both.

I dont buy that, I think ramping up Paid For DLC content makes more sense for a software business that is not going for the subscription model and who targets niche genres. There have been quite a few upheavels recently in shareprices and changes at the top, other games being culled, yet the free Narrative content in ED continues at pace? There is obviously a business target still at play here.

That can only mean getting more Paid for Content out as soon as possible. The drawn out Odyssey development was there to enable them to extract multiple DLCs out of that protracted effort. The subsequent effort to double-down on optimsiation, cancelling Consoles and merging codebases was there to protect that business plan, being willing to cull a part of your consumer base is telling. There is time pressure at play here.

 

[londonx]

If you're going to go full optimist and look at the gap between Horizons and Odyssey releases (which is no basis for a timeline, but I did say wild optimism) you're really looking at 2027.

That's with a similar development window, assuming similar complexity to Odyssey and a launch product of similar quality.

Based on that I think we should be hoping for a post 2030 release.

Or you could say that Odyssey was just a first release of that development effort, e.g. there have been enough hints that the planet tech is there not just for Odysseys accessible planets. Planet access is an obvious way to gate content in this game and its what they have been doing so far and a large chunk of that inc a lot of optimisation work has alreadby been done.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I dont buy that, I think ramping up Paid For DLC content makes more sense for a software business that is not going for the subscription model and who targets niche genres. There have been quite a few upheavels recently in shareprices and changes at the top yet the free Narrative content continues at pace? There is obviously a business target still at play here.

I agree with you up to this point: they're not giving up on Elite Dangerous and they're willing to continue investing in it for a return.

That can only mean getting more Paid for Content out as soon as possible. The drawn out Odyssey development was there to enable them to extract multiple DLCs out of that protracted effort. The subsequent effort to double-down on optimsiation, cancelling Consoles and merging codebases was there to protect that business plan, being willing to cull a part of your consumer base is telling. There is time pressure at play here.

If they were working on a paid DLC that would be a new planned product, and all their other planned products have been notified (even if only in broadest outline for both nature and timescale) in their financial reports. Nothing of that sort for ED has been notified yet. So "as soon as possible" is going to be "at least a few years away" anyway.

But "paid for content" doesn't have to mean "another paid DLC expansion like Horizons/Odyssey". Selling more of the existing products - the base game, Odyssey, and ARX - would also work. Having things like the Thargoid content that encourage existing players to spend more time in game can be good for both getting more money out of them, and for getting new sales.

On current development intensity, the game is bringing them about £2 million of profit each year - not a massive amount by the standards of their other games, but still very comfortably positive. Odyssey cost them somewhere between £10 and £15 million to develop; probably so would any of the topics for another paid DLC. They can afford to invest that in terms of cash-on-hand ... but they'd have to be very confident that they'd get it back on release rather than have it just wipe out the next 5-7 years of ED profit.

Or they could play safe for a bit - especially in a wider economy where people are cutting back on discretionary spending - and just try to keep the existing income going.

 

[Popalu]

I still think the Maelstroms are very much a pre-cursor to potential Gas Giant and atmospheric world flight, along with Thargs on foot in bases, being made available in one of this years updates, making a major step forward for Oddy

 

[londonx]

I agree with you up to this point: they're not giving up on Elite Dangerous and they're willing to continue investing in it for a return.


If they were working on a paid DLC that would be a new planned product, and all their other planned products have been notified (even if only in broadest outline for both nature and timescale) in their financial reports. Nothing of that sort for ED has been notified yet. So "as soon as possible" is going to be "at least a few years away" anyway.

But "paid for content" doesn't have to mean "another paid DLC expansion like Horizons/Odyssey". Selling more of the existing products - the base game, Odyssey, and ARX - would also work. Having things like the Thargoid content that encourage existing players to spend more time in game can be good for both getting more money out of them, and for getting new sales.

On current development intensity, the game is bringing them about £2 million of profit each year - not a massive amount by the standards of their other games, but still very comfortably positive. Odyssey cost them somewhere between £10 and £15 million to develop; probably so would any of the topics for another paid DLC. They can afford to invest that in terms of cash-on-hand ... but they'd have to be very confident that they'd get it back on release rather than have it just wipe out the next 5-7 years of ED profit.

Or they could play safe for a bit - especially in a wider economy where people are cutting back on discretionary spending - and just try to keep the existing income going.

Right I think the optimistic perspective hinges on the fact that the Odyssey development costs went on a lot of fundamental reworkings that have not yet been fully realised and therefore it wont cost as much to develop new content based on it, stuff that could be packaged as a unique PDLC, it might explain why they were so keen to quickly write off the Odyssey dev costs because it will make future DLCs profits more impressive seeming. There is also then the concept that it would actually be a bad business decision not to make the most advantage out of that development effort especially with the initial poor sales of Odyssey. That would be a part of the doubling-down that we have seen in other areas.

The planet tech is the most tangiable example which included hooking Atmospheres into Stellar Forge. So I theorise that you could get more PDLCs out of the new planet and atmosphere tech based on the engine work already completed. The art asset stuff can be done behind the scenes seperate to bug fixes and optimisation work that took up a lot of development time during the post launch years.

So for example to make sales and generate hype, would you tease say Thargoids on foot which would need Odyssey and then make say accessing Ammonia worlds a new PDLC which is where the Thargoids have their ground bases? Throw in some funky new flora and bingo. So Ammonia worlds would require new art assets added to the Odyssey planet tech as well as say the games existing volumetric clouds hooked into the existing Stellar Forge atmosphere tech which would be the star of the show. The ground based AI has already been done. Sounds like a possible money spinner, I dont see why they would do something like that for free to Odyssey owners, the Odyssey marketing was quite clear on its scope.

 

[aRJay]

I've been away from ED for a while and wondered, after the unreserved joy and love that greeted Odyssey, if we had any news or hints for the future?

. Is there going to be another such 'large release' (aka DLC)?

Nothing conclusive said yet.

. Are we getting any new ships? (Feel free to groan and mumble about the Panther Clipper)

Hopefully (hopefully not the PC though).

. Have there been any hints about landing on atmospheric planets or interacting with gas giants?

Regretfully no to both of those.

. When will we get dinosaur safaris?

Due to be released on 30/02/2024

Apologies if this has been covered elswhere - but after a half-hearted attempt I've given up trying to search... although I did stumble over this nugget (of the purest green):

As for the future of Elite Dangerous on PC, Braben says Frontier will share more information on what's next for the space sim "in due course".

and:

 

[Phoenix_Dfire]

I've been away from ED for a while and wondered, after the unreserved joy and love that greeted Odyssey, if we had any news or hints for the future?

. Is there going to be another such 'large release' (aka DLC)?
. Are we getting any new ships? (Feel free to groan and mumble about the Panther Clipper)
. Have there been any hints about landing on atmospheric planets or interacting with gas giants?
. When will we get dinosaur safaris?

Apologies if this has been covered elswhere - but after a half-hearted attempt I've given up trying to search... although I did stumble over this nugget (of the purest green):

As for the future of Elite Dangerous on PC, Braben says Frontier will share more information on what's next for the space sim "in due course".

and:

I'm quite enjoying the thargoid war and it's gameplay at the moment,so I'm quite happy for big updates like that to appear, but, to be honest, I don't know if we'll ever get a big Odyssey style update again. Odyssey didn't light the world up on release ( and the loss of revenue they were expecting from the console version of Odyssey) has probably dampened any enthusiasm for another big release.

Even though most of Odyssey's problems have been fixed (IMHO), it will take ages for the reputation damage to be repaired. For example, look at no man's sky, it took years before people decided to give it a second chance, despite the fact it had improved immeasurably from release.

That said, I'm hoping that they do On-Foot VR next and as a paid for extra (meaning even those with a Life time pass should pay if they want it). The reason behind that is that on-foot VR is so much, much more difficult to develop than sat down VR (i.e. flying ships, driving srvs) and it's unfair for the non-VR players to subsidise the VR players.

After that, I think the community has been loud and clear about ship interiors (and it's relative gameplay, eg, evas, ship repairs, boarding actions, etc) but I suspect to put that in would take just as much effort as Odyssey itself.

 

[amigacooke]

Odyssey didn't light the world up on release ( and the loss of revenue they were expecting from the console version of Odyssey) has probably dampened any enthusiasm for another big release.

Steam charts suggest that Odyssey did light the world up on release, it was the state of the release that caused that interest to fall off a cliff.

 

[londonx]

yeah it hit the number one spot when it launched, you just need to make sure the next DLC doesnt have those same big teething issues. Probably why they invested so much in optimising and bug fixing the new lighting engine, AI and Planet Tech in Odyssey, I doubt it was just down to "reputation", look how the first launch of the hyped F1 manager franchise was quickly culled after a problematic release.