Analysing ringed ELW data from EDSM/EDDN

This is something of a continuation of my "Analysing the ELW data from EDDB/EDSM" thread from last August, but I'll be focusing on ringed Earth-likes now. Originally, I planned to make a new version with the updated data this August, but then Orvidius posted a filtered version containing ringed Earth-likes (see here), I started looking at them, and well, one thing led to another.
Note that this will be about the distribution of them, not the physical characteristics. That can be gleaned as well from the data, of course, but I wasn't really interested in doing so again.

So, it's all here, for 2019.05.30: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vl2RlGXLs3j-9-9-ydxhCOf4kaxVEpxBEAZAtbvVYro/edit?usp=sharing
The earlier version for 2018.05.30: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PTmXMoyh0JNLiE5_RkJcEx-Z1iTnFqwwCemWwMw4iaE/edit?usp=sharing

If you wish to find ringed Earth-likes, then in a nutshell: look at mass code D systems, preferrably ones with only one primary star, and it's probably better to stick to higher stellar density regions, but stay outside the galactic core.

Before I go into the detailed analysis, two areas where I could use some help:

I've included the coords from Orvidius, and made a rudimentary map-chart. If somebody could get those coordinates over a proper image of the galaxy map, I'd be grateful.
I've also looked up the star classes for a number of the systems, especially the most "populated" sectors. I don't think I'll look up all of them, as they don't appear to hold any surprises, but if anyone wants to help out with this (perhaps I was wrong about those surprises), they'd be welcome.


Let's see the detailed analysis then:

Mass codes:
The bias here is obvious. Out of 1034 ringed Earth-likes, 899 are in code D. None are in code A, although that's hardly surprising, given not just the low mass of the systems, but also how rare Earth-likes are in them in the first place. Same goes for how quickly it drops off from E to H. Although with ELWs in total, mass code H systems still tend to have more than F and G. However, the ringed bias towards D goes well beyond the bias of Earth-likes.

When it comes to star classes, I don't have them all, but so far, it appears like they mirror the general distribution of them nicely.

Solo primaries:
Normally, these tend to be almost equal to multiple-primaries systems, with Earth-likes slightly favouring the latter. In the case of rings, however, solitaries have a clear advantage: here are almost twice as many of them. I'd wager that this is mostly about system generation: after all, if there's only the one star, things would be simpler and forming rings would be "disturbed" less. But I am not an expert on this.

Another thing to note: this is more uncertain, but it appears that the closer to the bubble, or the lower the stellar density, the more likely that ringed Earth-likes will be around solitary stars. They're still more often found as such in every sector, but there would appear to be a difference... however, this might also be due to simply the lower number of them. More on this in the next part.

Here comes the most interesting part, the spatial distribution of ringed Earth-likes:
Do bear in mind that things become more uncertain here: while we have a pretty large sample by now, even ELWs are quite rare, and ringed ones are even more so.
What is certain that the most ringed Earth-likes have been found along the Sol-Colonia line. Given that that appears to be the most travelled route in the galaxy by now, that should come as little surprise. However, it also looks like that sectors with higher stellar densities do better (you might even notice this when the route crosses inter-arm regions), and the Eol Prou sector does best. Little wonder, of course, seeing how many systems are logged there, but it's worth noting that there are even more systems logged near the bubble, and yet the ringed ratio is worse there.

The Sol - Sag. A* line appears odd, though. Compared to the ones running through Colonia, it's barely there. An effect of the suppression cross, perhaps? Or is it simply no longer as traveled? (Bear in mind when Jaques station moved, and when the game started logging bodies.)

With that in mind, you'd expect the galactic core to be the best, no? Yet here comes a surprise: the Colonia-Sag. A* line's ringed density drops considerably when it crosses into the core. Same goes for a few other sectors which are inside the core, but not on the line, although with fewer visited systems there, it's more difficult to tell. I think that the "break" in the line might even be visible on a map, but I'm not sure yet. Also note the Sol - Heart & Soul line, which is visible on a map, but with a pretty large gap in it. Compare with the galaxy map, and notice how the line crosses an inter-arm gap into a higher density region of the Perseus arm.
Even the Zunou sector, where a small wing has been surveying for Earth-likes a couple of mass code D subsectors exclusively, does worse - despite the fact that with solely D systems farmed, it should do better instead. Compare the sector's E/S ratio, which is through the roof because of this, with the R/E ratio, which isn't. Such surveys are actually a pretty good case to examine whether the difference would simply be due to travelers being more likely to head through code D systems or not.


But am I certain about this? Not entirely, no. Sectors generally still tend to have a relatively small amount of ringed Earth-likes, and so, it might simply be due to the luck of the draw, and would vanish with a larger sample size. With ten times as many systems visited, things should be clearer, but well, good luck waiting for that many. Still, what I see so far certainly looks suspicious to me.
We do know that the Stellar Forge works somewhat different in the core, and certain things are suppressed there (such as mass code A and mass code B systems, and helium-rich gas giants are missing entirely), so it is possible that for whatever reason, ringed Earth-likes fare worse there. Maybe ringed planets as well, but that's well outside the scope of this.

Some minor notes about ringed Earth-like moons:
While still rare (especially when compared to ELWs in total!), it's interesting to note that among the ringed ones, ringed Earth-like moons appear to be more prevalent than Earth-like moons among all Earth-likes. Out of the total ELWs (incl. ringed!), the ratio is 1.3%, while ringed ELMs make up almost 7% of all ringed Earth-likes. Of course, in the grand scheme of things, they are still incredibly rare: 0.09% of all ELWs. So, if you flew around randomly, each jump would have a 0.000027% chance to get you a ringed Earth-like moon. Ouch.

Oh, and one last note. I've obviously left out the sectors where no ringed Earth-like worlds have been found. I could have run the counts on those as well, but it would have taken much longer, and I'm not sure if it would have been worth it. After all, the most ELW-populated sectors already tend to contain at least one ringed Earth-like, so they'd be on this list anyway.Update: looks like I was wrong, and I'll update things with this once the counts are complete.

Finally, sources and credits go to the same people (iain666, Ian Doncaster, Redfox, and of course the EDSM/EDDN developers) as in the old thread linked above, with the addition of CMDR Orvidius.

If you've made it this far, thanks for reading!
 
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What is certain that the most ringed Earth-likes have been found along the Sol-Colonia line. Given that that appears to be the most travelled route in the galaxy by now, that should come as little surprise. However, it also looks like that sectors with higher stellar densities do better (you might even notice this when the route crosses inter-arm regions), and the Eol Prou sector does best. Little wonder, of course, seeing how many systems are logged there, but it's worth noting that there are even more systems logged near the bubble, and yet the ringed ratio is worse there.
Just a thought, but wouldn't it be more accurate in terms of "chances to discover one" to break down the base data to "percentage of all known systems (or perhaps all known D mass) per sector" ? That way it should eliminate peaks caused by regions that are better explored than others.
 
+1 virtual rep, since it won't let me rep you again yet! :)

This is very cool. For everyone reading along, I have my server updating a spreadsheet of all known earth-likes from EDSM. I also just added a column for the mass-code in the proc-gen systems, to make life easier for anyone who doesn't want to regex them out. It's pretty simple to have my script do that for the procgen names and spit that out with the rest of it.
 
Just a thought, but wouldn't it be more accurate in terms of "chances to discover one" to break down the base data to "percentage of all known systems (or perhaps all known D mass) per sector" ? That way it should eliminate peaks caused by regions that are better explored than others.
It is also broken down to percentage of all known systems per sector. See the "Sectors" subsheet, the relevant numbers (ringed ELWs, total ELWs, total logged systems) and ratios are listed there.

@ Orvidius: Oh, thanks for adding the mass codes as well! Should be interesting to take a look at the totals too.
 
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Just noticed something interesting while putting the counts on the sector name map (I'll share that when it's done): the Stuemeae sector, where Sag. A* is located, has 194 Earth-likes in 43,788 systems, but none of them are ringed.
That's suspicious to me, so it looks like that contrary to what I wrote, I'll have to run tallies for all the sectors now. That'll take some time, though.
 
Very interesting, there are at least 3 Ringed ELW's that I know of(correction 4, but 2 haven't been handed in yet) in the Zunou sector that aren't on your spreadsheet, but I doubt this would make much difference overall.

I love looking at distribution maps of ringed ELW's :)
 
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Just noticed something interesting while putting the counts on the sector name map (I'll share that when it's done): the Stuemeae sector, where Sag. A* is located, has 194 Earth-likes in 43,788 systems, but none of them are ringed.
That's suspicious to me, so it looks like that contrary to what I wrote, I'll have to run tallies for all the sectors now. That'll take some time, though.

When 1.3% of all ELWs are ringed 194 ELWs might just be too less data. It should be 2.5 ringed ELWs in average then but could just be no luck yet.
Somehow it would make an interesting challenge finding the first ringed ELW there ^^
 
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When 1.3% of all ELWs are ringed 194 ELWs might just be too less data. It should be 2.5 ringed ELWs in average then but could just be no luck yet.
Yep, which is why I decided to run tallies on all the ELW-bearing sectors, how many systems there are in each. My initial assumption was probably wrong. Be it either way, at least I can update the ELW distribution map as well.
And hey, if you wish to go there to look for Earth-likes, by all means! To be honest, I expected there would be more systems logged around there. Same goes for Juenae below it. (108 ELWs, 18,865 systems.)

@ Col. Frost: Perhaps it would, but I guess it'd depend on how many more systems have been logged since the database snapshot. Still, it's one sector out of many. Also, if they are from a later date, then the whole snapshot should be updated to match them.
 
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Updated this one as well. Things pretty much remained the same. Here's a nice comparison of map charts:
Source: https://i.imgur.com/SqscjNe.png

A year later:
Source: https://i.imgur.com/sodN4xr.png


It appears a visible cluster showed up in the Scutum-Centaurus Arm between the core and the northern rim: likely a result of DW2 heading from Sag. A* to Beagle Point through the area.

If somebody could overlay the coordinates over an actual map of the galaxy though, I'd be grateful.
 
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