Are we past the invasion peak already?

[Landorin]

Hey all,

due to private reasons I was away from Elite for a few weeks. Got back today and was surprised I only found a very few systems being invaded (and pretty much all in recovery mode already). Has the invasion speed slowed down compared to March or did I just catch an unlucky timing? I hope I have not seen all of the invasion yet. I highly enjoyed the constant interceptor battles (and nope, I lack a big group to re-take systems which I unfortunately do not have).

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

The thargoids had their expansion rate turned down, from around 80 systems in alert state per week to a maximum of 40. Out of those, only the ones in inhabited systems turn into invasions.

In other words it was nothing that we (the players) did, the thargoid "AI" had its knobs twiddled to make things easier.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

There's multiple causes here, and it probably is just a temporary slump, of which this week is probably the bottom of the valley and it'll be up after that.

As Ned says, the expansion rate was turned down. On paper this only directly affected the Thargoid's ability to place Alerts in uninhabited systems, which don't lead to Invasions anyway - but in practice, it did also lead to a short-term decrease in the number of Alerts they could place in populated systems too, because it had knock-on consequences for their target selection.

There were also some adjustments to difficulty levels and some discovery of more effective strategies which have meant that it was possible to win more systems a week: going from the 10-15 range to the 30-35 range. This meant that more Invasions and Inhabited Alerts were won each week, so fewer were left around, allowing even more focus on the remaining ones.

However, one result of this is that the human defensive pattern at most Maelstroms [1] is one which leads to the Thargoids focusing more attacks in the medium-term onto inhabited systems. This week and the week of the 13th saw "normal" numbers of Alerts in inhabited systems, which will lead to 7 Invasions next week, and a projected record number of Inhabited Alerts to go with them. That's likely to spread human forces more thinly, leading to even more invasions the following week, which are likely to be accompanied by even more Inhabited Alerts.

Whether this stabilises out or ends up with an oscillation between periods of "high Invasion" and "low Invasion" really can't be predicted yet and to an extent is a choice for human strategists to make.

(And that's assuming that U15 doesn't raise things further, of course. It probably will, but not necessarily immediately)



[1] To heavily prioritise defence of inhabited systems over defence of uninhabited systems or recaptures. It's an obvious strategy but whether it's a good one really depends on what you're trying to achieve, and of course different people and groups have very different priorities there.

 

[Sunyavadin]

[1] To heavily prioritise defence of inhabited systems over defence of uninhabited systems or recaptures. It's an obvious strategy but whether it's a good one really depends on what you're trying to achieve, and of course different people and groups have very different priorities there.

Well, a fun way for the devs to react to that would be to have the thargoids start establishing fortified resource extraction and manufacturing operations in those uninhabited systems, have a cost established to that strategy.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Well, a fun way for the devs to react to that would be to have the thargoids start establishing fortified resource extraction and manufacturing operations in those uninhabited systems, have a cost established to that strategy.

There are already several costs and downsides to that strategy, it doesn't need more adding artificially.

If applied exclusively, the result is that it concentrates Thargoid forces more strongly on inhabited systems in return. And as we can't win 40 of those a week, eventually they'll break through the defensive line - having established a massive outer perimeter with the uncontested uninhabited systems making travel harder. Then the cycle repeats further out with humanity in a worse position overall.

 

[Landorin]

Thanks all. Then I simply hope the invasion numbers go somewhat up again. Kinda sad when there are only 3-4 systems and already in recovery long before Thursdays while you have itchy trigger fingers.

 

[RaketeMike]

Thanks all. Then I simply hope the invasion numbers go somewhat up again. Kinda sad when there are only 3-4 systems and already in recovery long before Thursdays while you have itchy trigger fingers.

Sorry to „necro“ but that seems to be even more of an issue at current. A question to the experts: will it now almost always be the case that by Friday evening / early Saturday all invasions have been finished ? I remember the days where they were going on for the whole week, with even unsuccessful defences. They were just good and simple fun, especially for casual players possessing AX ships.

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

will it now almost always be the case that by Friday evening / early Saturday all invasions have been finished ?

Not always - there might be weeks like the one coming up where there won't even be any invasions to begin with.

 

[RaketeMike]

Not always - there might be weeks like the one coming up where there won't even be any invasions to begin with.

Okay…. so it‘s „yes, we are by far past the invasion peak now“ victorious sampling! * sigh *

 

[Felix DiCestria]

Depending on what happens and any more changes.

 

[BDelacroix]

Okay…. so it‘s „yes, we are by far past the invasion peak now“ victorious sampling! * sigh *

Don't forget, we introduced Titan sampling with the CG this last week.

 

[RaketeMike]

Don't forget, we introduced Titan sampling with the CG this last week.

The bigger the threat, the harder we sample !!

Thanks god I am jumping my carrier to Lovaroju now, at least one quick Invasion session this week..

 

[RaketeMike]

The bigger the threat, the harder we sample !!

Thanks god I am jumping my carrier to Lovaroju now, at least one quick Invasion session this week..

.. quickly made 312 mil. there and plenty of grade 5 rewards from kill missions. Very satisfying! And very good from the lore perspective, fighting in a war and earning rewards from it!

 

[Kira Goto]

The fact that “defense” is not only so successful against the Thatgoids, but largely achieved through pulling bits of organic matter from interceptors or scouts, is just getting more ridiculous the more it goes on. And I don’t feel like this is how Frontier necessarily wanted the system to turn out. Sampling doesn’t even look that fun, and the relative ‘simplicity’ of it makes the reward for it be way out of whack.

Of course, if they rebalanced sampling or only made it take effect where it says it should, then they would have to actually fix alerts to be more viable for completion without samples. And let combat be actually effective at retaking controlled systems.

Spoiler

I want the Thargoid curveball to hit already. This whole time it felt like they’ve just been toying with the puny humans. Current ‘strategy’ also really isn’t getting them any closer to the alleged goal they’ve been said to have, unless it is just to keep us locked up in defense of human space while they get cozy around the nebulas. It’s so far done a good job at that.

(I rather liked running evacs out of damaged ports. Since I do them in solo to avoid the potential griefer nonsense around rescue megaships, and/or using up a pad from fighters, CZs often only present scouts or pre-distracted interceptors if I hang around too long… boring. But with less than 1 day clears for invasions there isn’t even any chance for those to pop up.)

 

[RaketeMike]

The fact that “defense” is not only so successful against the Thatgoids, but largely achieved through pulling bits of organic matter from interceptors or scouts, is just getting more ridiculous the more it goes on. And I don’t feel like this is how Frontier necessarily wanted the system to turn out. Sampling doesn’t even look that fun, and the relative ‘simplicity’ of it makes the reward for it be way out of whack.

Of course, if they rebalanced sampling or only made it take effect where it says it should, then they would have to actually fix alerts to be more viable for completion without samples. And let combat be actually effective at retaking controlled systems.

I think combat should be more effective than sampling in Control and Invasion systems, that would somehow make more sense. In Alerts it is a bit different, however there Orthrus hunting should play a major role for moving the progress bar.

 

[Kalizandra]

Sorry to „necro“ but that seems to be even more of an issue at current. A question to the experts: will it now almost always be the case that by Friday evening / early Saturday all invasions have been finished ? I remember the days where they were going on for the whole week, with even unsuccessful defences. They were just good and simple fun, especially for casual players possessing AX ships.

This is an interesting topic and it touches on how different folks play games. At the start of the war effort there was a lot to do and a lot of fun to be had at Invasion sites especially planetary attack scenarios. As the war has progressed some admittedly dedicated and intelligent folks have figured out the min/max path to stabilize the front lines. Kudos to them obviously for their hard work!
Unfortunately, that has had the side effect of 'managing out' some of the more exciting gameplay loops in favour of what's most efficient at getting a desired result. The war effort has become spreadsheets and graphs, and not so friendly to those of us who just want to have a laugh fighting aliens above a planetary base.
We all play games in slightly different ways and being honest there is no right/correct way to play an entertainment product.

I like to use the example, (admittedly a UK centric one) of playing football with a Sunday Pub Football team.
You turn up at the pitch at midday on a Sunday, slightly hungover from your Saturday night, chat to the guys, knock out a game of football and then you are all back down the pub by 3pm for a few more beers before returning home for your dinner, then bed and work the next day.
The min/maxer playstyle would be like hiring a semi professional coach, a nutritionist, and a manager to make sure that the game of football is the best it can be.
This example is somewhat tongue in cheek but I hope you get the gist of it (Just for clarity I'm very much a casual player-only been playing for 2 years with just under 2000 hours logged gulp)

I think Gaming in general attracts a lot of folks with this kind of mindset; efficiency, competitiveness-indeed the 'fun' for those players is in the process, the min/maxing, the spreadsheets etc. Of course there is nothing wrong with approaching gaming like this. In fact we probably wouldn't have all the guides, 3rd party websites and helpful little doodads such as the Material Helper program without this mindset.
Given Elites relatively small but very dedicated, helpful and often very kind player base it shouldn't come as a surprise that the war has unfolded the way it has.

At this point I think a lot of players from both sides of this divide are hoping for Fdev to shake up the 'meta' a bit with the August content update. New combat gameplay loops are coming within the Maelstroms-at some point...hopefully. New mechanics could push the front lines in interesting directions.

One of the best things about having Elite as my 'forever' game is being able to dip in and out when I feel the urge. With late summer and early autumn being so crowded with new AAA games, (BG3, SF, CP2077 DLC etc) I can enjoy other games without feeling like I'm neglecting Elite!

Right enough waffle from me! x

 

[pFVD]

To further the above, FDEV also changed it so that invasion conflicts are over once they reach 100%, apparently so that folks would know they were over and wouldn't keep fighting there.

Which is a shame, and I suspect most were well aware it was at 100%+; that's not why we were still fighting there.

 

[Shadowsnog]

To further the above, FDEV also changed it so that invasion conflicts are over once they reach 100%, apparently so that folks would know they were over and wouldn't keep fighting there.

Which is a shame, and I suspect most were well aware it was at 100%+; that's not why we were still fighting there.

im not a big fan of some of the things that were happening there, but i too miss some of the invasion fun.
on the other hand perhaps raking a billion over night in a safety of station/base wasnt exactly the best scenario. my guess is that fdev took the training wheels off with that update (completion=no goids) and is pushing us a little more towards space combat.
what if we are to attack goid homeworld? we will need pilots who can fight in space, not just hide under the skirt of instant repair and rearm, rebuy and redeploy...