Bizzare influence fluctuations

We've recently experienced some bizarre fluctuations in our squadron's faction influence. ignore the drop before that, as that didn't actually happen in game and was an INARA glitch. I have verified that the influence actually changed in game as well. We've been steadily running missions and got to be exactly 1% influence away from our rival faction before suddenly being bumped down more points. What is strange is that according to my calculations using https://elite-dangerous.fandom.com/wiki/Background_Simulation, the rival faction should not have been able to gain this much influence based on their population. We are really angry since we've been grinding this faction for hours now and only want to start a war to gain influence. If you have any ide
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Don't think you can start any conflicts - you own all the bases in Oleles and you can no longer have wars unless there are locations to win/lose. (Edit: Nah, think I was wrong on that after doing a bit more research)

Estra Haven appear to be another PMF, have you reached out to them? They may be working against you.

Edit: Or vice versa, depending on which of the two PMFs you are.
 
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It just means that the controlling faction has player support and that they were filling their bgs buckets better then you. They gained 3.9% in one day nothing strange there. Now comes the time to buckle down and grind if you want to take over the system.
 
I suspect that someone, or perhaps several someones, was monitoring the region and saw that Federal control of the system was endangered, so came in and did some work to prevent the Federation from losing that system.

I'm curious as to how you were placed in the Olestes system. I thought FD had a policy of not inserting PMFs into systems where the current ruling faction is of different alignment? As an Indie PMF, you should not have been placed in a Federal-controlled star system.
 
I'm curious as to how you were placed in the Olestes system. I thought FD had a policy of not inserting PMFs into systems where the current ruling faction is of different alignment? As an Indie PMF, you should not have been placed in a Federal-controlled star system.
I suspect that only applies to Fed/Imp/Alliance factions, independent ones appear to be inserted anywhere.
 
Terrible, the poor beleaguered superpowers need all the help they can get against the might of the rapacious small local independence movements
 
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