General / Off-Topic Brexit could blow £100bn hole in UK economy and cost up to 950,000 jobs, CBI warns

It may not be about trade at all. Perhaps the most important reason to be "IN" is having one unified military force. What with China becoming increasingly belligerent towards the west and Japan......and everybody else. Plus Russia's military spending seemingly being on an exponential scale recently.
leaving the EU has nothing to do with leaving NATO. They are separate organisations.
 
@Arry

Dave has nothing to do with the BCC chap.
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I happen to be of the "stay" persuasion which puts me in the same side as the government on this one.
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Both sides are engaged in fear tactics.
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The in crowd about the negative economics effects of leaving.
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The out crowd create fear of those foreigners coming in willy billy, those foreigners making all our laws, those foreigners taking all our jobs etc.
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Sticking to the economic argument, my point is that trying to say leaving will cost X or stressing will cost Y is a pointless exercise. Every model uses assumptions and changing those radically changes the results.
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Right now we have the best possible access to one of the worlds largest markets. How likely is it, given we will have just caused the EU a massive headache, that we will be able to reach a deal as good as what we have now? It is more likely that any deal would be less favourable overall. Say the deal was 5% worse for both sides. That's 5% of near half our trade and 5% of only 10% of the EUs trade.
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Ok maybe we can make that 2.5% loss up with more favourable deals with China, USA and India. But could the UK strike a more favorable deal alone than as part of the biggest trade block in the world? I bet the US and China would walk all over us.
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More importantly could we increase our trade with partners literally on the other side of the world as easily as with the EU, on our door step. Moving goods and people about the world is bound to be more expensive than moving them around Europe.
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I cant see any realistic economic situation where we would be better of out than in.
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One thing "out" makes a big noise over is the £50million a day we send to the EU. Putting aside the fact that its closer to £30million, that big sounding number needs to be put in context. The gov spends £2000million a day. In that context £50 is a drop in the ocean. Imagine spending £200 a day, then worrying about the £5 a day membership fee for your sports club.

In or out makes no difference to me.

Logic dictates the UK could not survive long outside; as the UK is too reliant on the EU for food, coal, etc. etc. Forget trade; if the UK up set even a part of the EU, it would starve.

There is no economic argument either way, because the world economy and the UK's economy is too tied into Chinas.

Nothing above changes my toad eaters opinion. In-fact, the lack of comment; either way, with regards my view on Dave's manipulation of how this referendum is being run, only enforces it.
 
leaving the EU has nothing to do with leaving NATO. They are separate organisations.
Yeah, one of the "in" fear quips is that leaving the EU would undermine our security.
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NATO is the main military block in Europe, so that wouldn't be directly impacted.
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And from an invasion point of view Britain's primary defence has always been geography.
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On the there hand, the most credible "day to day" threat is currently terrorism.
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the "out" camp tend to claim that the open borders of EU membership make us less safe, the implication is that dodgy (probably "swarthy", as my gran would say) foreigners are able to just walk in to the uk and blow themselves up.
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I see a few issues with this.
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All the recent terrorist attacks, Paris, London, Brussels have been carried out by predominately local citizens. Fully sealing the borders to all foreigners (the most extreme border control possible) would not have helped.
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The UK is already outside the Schengen zone. That is to say we can implement full border checks in and out already, the EU is not stopping us from doing this, so leaving won't make it easier to do.
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What can (but sadly doesn't always) stop these attacks is intelligence, in particular sharing and cooperation. Is it likely that our sharing and cooperation with other EU security forces will be improved by the UK?
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Overall my opinion (ymmv) is that leaving will not dramatically change our security against conventional threats (i.e. invasion) but it would probably reduce security regarding terrorism.
 
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There is no economic argument either way, because the world economy and the UK's economy is too tied into Chinas.
You are probably right, China, President Trump, Oil price shocks and other things beyond the EU will probably have a bigger effect on the UK GDP and employment than Brexit.
Nothing above changes my toad eaters opinion. In-fact, the lack of comment; either way, with regards my view on Dave's manipulation of how this referendum is being run, only enforces it.

I sense you are trying to bait me.
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FYI I am not a fan of Mr Cameron. We happen to be on the same side on the issue.
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I have defended him in the past over the pig head allegations, which were the most flimsy of accusations (a single anonymous source who admitted they may be mistaken) and even if true have no bearing on the rights and wrongs of his policy decisions.
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Using the fact he dresses smartly, sounds posh and went to Eton as a reason his polices are bad is the same as saying Mr Corbyn shouldn't be listened to because he's a scruffy commoner who went to a comprehensive i.e. it makes the argument of the person using it weaker not stronger. there's plenty of reasons not to like conservative policies without having to stoop to schoolyard arguments.
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IMHO, so far DC has focused to much on the negatives and frankly run a poor campaign.
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But from what I could see from the evidence, the resignation of the BCC head was nothing to do with DC. After the BCC suspended him for misrepresenting (consciously or unconsciously) his personal views as the BCC's he resigned so he could freely campaign for "out". Of course "brexit" campaigners love to paint him as a martyr and mumble on about "project fear" but there is nothing else t see here.
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now, having stated that you want a decent debate rather than resorting to fear and "ad hominem" attacks do me the same courtesy.
 
You are probably right, China, President Trump, Oil price shocks and other things beyond the EU will probably have a bigger effect on the UK GDP and employment than Brexit.


I sense you are trying to bait me.
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FYI I am not a fan of Mr Cameron. We happen to be on the same side on the issue.
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I have defended him in the past over the pig head allegations, which were the most flimsy of accusations (a single anonymous source who admitted they may be mistaken) and even if true have no bearing on the rights and wrongs of his policy decisions.
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Using the fact he dresses smartly, sounds posh and went to Eton as a reason his polices are bad is the same as saying Mr Corbyn shouldn't be listened to because he's a scruffy commoner who went to a comprehensive i.e. it makes the argument of the person using it weaker not stronger. there's plenty of reasons not to like conservative policies without having to stoop to schoolyard arguments.
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IMHO, so far DC has focused to much on the negatives and frankly run a poor campaign.
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But from what I could see from the evidence, the resignation of the BCC head was nothing to do with DC. After the BCC suspended him for misrepresenting (consciously or unconsciously) his personal views as the BCC's he resigned so he could freely campaign for "out". Of course "brexit" campaigners love to paint him as a martyr and mumble on about "project fear" but there is nothing else t see here.
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now, having stated that you want a decent debate rather than resorting to fear and "ad hominem" attacks do me the same courtesy.
I have been, that avatar frightens the hell out of me. :D
 
to be perfectly honest, there is a lot of fear tactics being used by either side, we dont actually know what will happen in any way, shape or form
If Britain leaves it might be good or it might go downhill very quickly
I believe it will be a 50:50 split with the out side winning by a very slight margin
In my personal opinion, I think we should stay in. There are many plus sides for being in the EU, despite the negatives we get here and there. For me the deciding factor is the access to the European court of justice.
My solution- dissolve the EU and create a new one immediately afterwards, with new legislations that please everyone. Impractical I know, but probably the best thing that could be done.
 
I have been, that avatar frightens the hell out of me. :D
it was that or...
bubble-bobble.jpg
:p
 
to be perfectly honest, there is a lot of fear tactics being used by either side, we dont actually know what will happen in any way, shape or form
If Britain leaves it might be good or it might go downhill very quickly
I believe it will be a 50:50 split with the out side winning by a very slight margin
In my personal opinion, I think we should stay in. There are many plus sides for being in the EU, despite the negatives we get here and there. For me the deciding factor is the access to the European court of justice.
My solution- dissolve the EU and create a new one immediately afterwards, with new legislations that please everyone. Impractical I know, but probably the best thing that could be done.
One of the depressing things is a lot of the older people I speak to are "out", my parents included (ironic as my mum's not from the uk).
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One of the reasons that keep coming up is the whole "laws from Europe", "unelected eurocrats", "red tape" thing.
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I believe the majority of these views come from misinformed media stories rather than fact.
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Boris gave an excellent demonstration with his 4 examples of Europe meddling.
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The T bag one was a distortion where the truth was European law specifically gave the power to local authorities father than taking it away.
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The vacuum cleaner one, was true but made sense when explained that it was part of a euro wide efficiency drive.
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The truck one, was untrue, as a euro wide regulation was coming into force to change truck design and was actually a good example of wherever regulations would be better than uk only regulation.
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The under 8's not being able to blow up balloons, was untrue, the EU only mandated that warnings about supervising under 8's be on packaging.
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The recently trumpeted claim about the EU rigs on medical trials stopped promising cancer research turned out to be untrue. The Dr (and ukip candidate
) who made the claims admitted the problem stemmed from our governments implementation of the EU directive rather than the directive itself.

We need a clear campaign to teach the uk population how the EU lawmaking sytem works so there s less fear about it. The majority of cases that I've come across since I started looking into this have been fairly sensible once you get past the tabloid screaming. Sure there are some instances of stupidity and overregulation but that's just as true for national governments.

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People tell me that the cute little things in games; turn into very big bad things, if you poke them too much.
Not Bub and Bob, they were just cute little dinosaurs trying to get home by inexplicably blowing bubbles.
 
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