I very much doubt it will be Xmas 2017, they need to. Pretty sure it will be this year or early next year. I think 2.4 will likely be out early next year as well. But we have no idea.
If 3.0 is walking around, it maybe restricted to certain areas at first like planets have been.
We shall find out soon. If they advertise it at gamescon like they did with 2.0 at EGX last year, it will be this xmas either at the same time as 2.3 or 2.4.
Need to? Not if Horizons has not sold as well as was first expected. Each individual project needs to fund itself. If it doesn't, the game will stop being developed. IF Horizons has not sold as expected, it would explain the delays, as cutbacks in staff and funding would have drawn out the development time. I don't have an insight into the ED development plan, but I would expect that the plan is compartmentalised and each stage needs to be looked at as they go along and reworked if not performing as expected. Just ploughing ahead and hoping everything will come good is a recipe for disaster. A yearlong period is a very long time for not stepping in to restructure if the figures show clear signs of not meeting expectations.
The Gamescom show is at the end of August. We still need to have a build up to a Beta and then the Beta itself. FD already said previously that they plan to have their next major point release in
September. Michael cleary communicated when I asked him live on this forum that this was
not 2.2. I would not be surprised at all if you consider the Beta needs to be launched prior to the actual release, that it will not be until October before 2.2 actually releases. With that in mind, this might actually be what FD plans to try and flog Horizons over the Chrismas period to make up revenue and further support the project. This would make sense as a contingency plan
if Horizons could not actually live up to its original 1 year/ 1 season plan model.
This is all just guesswork on my part, but even so, if I am right about the above you may well find you will get two releases next year in the second half of the Horizons 'season'. This would mean that if sales finally make up what they needed to inspire enough financial confidence, FD could confidently invest the time and expenditure to warrant another expansion and 3.0 could launch next Chrismas.
If on the other hand Horizons has sold as was expected you could be right and 3.0 might launch with season 2 lagging behind trying to catch up. This however, has never been FD's style. I see them wanting to milk Horizons for everything it is worth before cheapening it the release of 3.0. By that point, you would find Horizons being lumped into some sort of value offer pack much the same as how we seen the price of the original game fall as Horizons was first launched.
FD takes this approach with the ship skins releasing all the new ship skins on the small ships first and the least attractive skins of basic pastel colours. They know players will not buy those once the large ship skins or the more flashy designs become available are available and so they release them slowly hoping for maximum sales from them before finally providing consumers with the product they really want. That way an enthusiastic punter is likely to make two purchases in the long run instead of just one. It is a clever marketing tactic. I can't see how they would suddenly change that line of thinking with the main expansion releases.