Can somebody clarify the BG sim behavior in election/war state?

[kurush]

A few guides for the background simulation state that in war or civil war state only combat activities change the faction influence. Similarly, in the election state only non-combat activities do that.

Question: Does this mean that the state-specific missions spawned in those states do not in fact affect faction influence if they are combat oriented in election state or not combat oriented in war states? For example, there are missions such as "Covert Election Combat Operation" or I remember seeing some civil war-specific acquisition missions. From the name you would assume they affect the outcome, but according to the guides and also based on my experiments, they do not in fact affect it.

 

[Schlack]

Our findings strongly suggest that despite the flavour text and influence indicators no missions have influence effect during wartime. Combat bonds are the way to go.

 

[kurush]

Combat bonds are the way to go.

Does this also mean that massacre missions you can take along with the combat bonds do not contribute to the influence? Or it is hard to tell?

 

[Schlack]

Massacre missions have no effect. Removed I believe back when you could stack 20 per CMDR and nuke the bgs. Only 3-6 can be stacked now so technically they could probably be switched on again.

 

[the100thmonkey]

Under most circumstances, there's a cap on how much influence you can push per tick in a conflict.

Even if the missions had any effect, cashing the bonds when you stop off to repair and rearm will push you to the cap anyway. The cash from the missions is just gravy.

 

[Deleted member 38366]

During last tests, Anti-Pirate and Kill Pirate Lord (Assassination) Combat Missions worked like a charm during times of Conflict when supporting other Systems (not the active Conflict System).

I personally used them to go beyond the ~5% Daily Cap per Player and Activity (Bounty Hunting), which worked very well.
Other Members did the same in the past in other Systems (only Anti-Pirate Missions), which also worked as expected.

 

[Schlack]

That's interesting. Will have to retest I think. Its been a while.

 

[the100thmonkey]

the ~5% Daily Cap per Player and Activity (Bounty Hunting), which worked very well.

It's not a per-player cap and it's not a 5% cap.

There's a basic firm-cap on influence swings (as opposed to soft- or hard-caps) that varies with the size of the system. With a 1,000 population system, the cap is somewhere in the region of 20%. With a 1 billion pop, the cap is closer to 2%.

5% suggests to me that the system this was tested in was somewhere between 5 and 25 million or thereabouts. Superpower bounty effects can also distort the picture somewhat by distributing influence to other factions.

The question is whether the participants in the test also cashed the inevitable bounty that comes with the kill. If they did, that's a double action.

 

[Deleted member 38366]

We've specifically tested for all that.

- System-based Cap was never reached
- no SuperPower Bounties were used
- only exported Bounties from other Systems for a single Faction or Missions exclusively +Inf for that Faction were used

17M Pop Test :
Test 1 : Single Player, 10% Benchmark Input per-System, single Activity. Result : 5%
Test 2 : Two Players, 10% Benchmark Inputs per-System, single Activity. Result : 10%
Test 3 : Single Player, 20%+ "Overkill" massive Input per-System, single Activity. Result : 5%
Test 4 : Two Players, 5% Benchmark Inputs per-System, 2x single Activity. Result : 2x 5% = 10%
Test 5 : Single Player, 10% Benchmark Input per-System (1st Activity), 2.5% Benchmark Input (2nd Activity). Result : 5% (Capped) + 2.5 = 7.5%

In all Tests, that per-activity Cap was clear and benchmarkable, so was utilizing other Players and/or other activities to easily (*) bypass it.

(*) Easy during State : None, Boom or Expansion due to widespread availability of different Activities (Exploration Data, Bounty Hunting, Missions, Mining/Trading)
Not so easy during State : War due to common lack of Combat Missions.


PS. / Caviat & Disclaimer

Spoiler

It must be noted, however, that since early 2017, we've seen... well... let's call them "Anomalies" on the BGS. And I don't mean bugs.
In short, someone was manipulating the BGS at the Server level against us and in at least 2 cases directly nullifying my personal Inputs during key moments.

These Manipulations lasted over several months and eventually forced us to develop and employ a Turing Test on the BGS itself to make sure we weren't overlooking something or getting Paranoid.
(you'd probably agree that everyone's first thought would be : that's other Players and they got very lucky, as that was our 1st natural instinct. The "other interested Parties" however made too precise Inputs, even in Systems where I tossed in distinct and very unintuitive Scatter-Inputs for pure verification purposes, plus the Inf misses/Overshoots etc. were consistently 100% Digital in nature, on top the Traffic Reports often didn't add up vs. observed Inf movements)

Well, the BGS miserably failed the Turing Test and we caught the Manipulator red-handed no less than three times after laying out literal BGS Traps designed only to verify against ongoing manipulations.
Things only someone with direct Server access could counter, as absolutely noone (not even my own Group) knew where and what I was doing.

Was fun times, as we had to resort to Proxy/Decoy Operations to get things done - but at least those worked like a charm.
Only against "magic Influence matches" (which btw. broke the BGS two times ) there was nothing we could do of course.
Someone "upstairs" apparently suffered from a very distinct irrational hatred against me and/or our old Group *shrugs*

Anyway, I think that should be noted, because frankly, I couldn't 100% vouch that all the numbers I obvserved after early 2017 actually apply globally.
Not after what I (and others) have witnessed. Didn't exactly improve the trust in Frontier and strongly confirmed quite unprofessional behaviour and extreme favorism. Visible for everyone of us to see, more than once.

 

[kurush]

I loved the disclaimer the most Question though, what do you call a "Second Activity", can you provide some examples may be?

 

[Deleted member 38366]

I loved the disclaimer the most Question though, what do you call a "Second Activity", can you provide some examples may be?

Activities :
- handing in Bounty Vouchers
- handing in Combat Bonds (** personally untested for Daily Player/Activity Cap)
- Selling Exploration Data
- Trading (includes Mining Sales)
- running different Mission Archetypes (at minimum Passenger and Classic Missions, it's unknown to me if or how far classic Missions are divided)

So i.e. one of your Systems is at War/Civil War and you want to support other Systems with maximum effectiveness, let's say 20M Population :
- you make 6x 1.5M Bounty Hunting runs, which should put your raw input very close to the Daily Activity Cap, around 5% for such a System.
- in order to achieve more, you now run Combat Missions (i.e.Kill Pirate or Assassination Missions), netting you another 5% raw Input.

If alone and entirely uncountered, you see a ~10% move in that System the next cycle (at least if your Faction is not >50-60%, where you'll have to double your Inputs for every 10% beyond that, as things get increasingly difficult to move upward)

During peacetime, your Actions might look like this :
- you make several big Trade runs, deliver ~5M in Trade Profits with 25-30 individual Inputs, again putting you close to that Activity Cap
- next up, you sell around 8M in Exploration Data, again putting you close to the Activity Cap
- if you want even more, you run around 12 +++Inf Bulk Passenger Missions on top of that

If alone and entirely uncoundered, you'd see a ~15% move in that System the next cycle (same restrictions as above).

In comparison :
- during Wartime, you push another System with a massive 20 Bounty Hunting runs worth 1M each (single Activity)... but you'd still see only a 5% move despite a titanic effort. You could have delivered a 100M Bounty Voucher, same effect.
- during Peacetime, you make 4 large Mining runs, trading in 25M Cr with 25-30 Individual Inputs... but again, you'd only see that 5% move. You could have done 5 more such runs, no difference. Single Activity.

Just be aware, the restrictions count per System, so moving around different Systems allows to push your Faction there in the same way.

PS.
The only Activity I've found/tested to exceed that Activity Cap was Negative Trading. I alone was able to lower Influence of a Target Faction by almost 10% doing nothing but Negative Trade.
Based on a single "overkill" Test capped right at those ~10%, I'd reckon the Activity Cap is double that of standard/positive Activities.
Smuggling I never got around to test that on.

The Caviat/Disclaimer is to be taken seriously though, at least I wouldn't be surprised if other Players legitimately testing those those "awkward limitations" actually find them to not exist.
Don't quite think they went >that< far on me, but in the end, who's to tell? Can't rule it out, that's basically all to it.

 

[CMDR Endincite]

There's a basic firm-cap on influence swings (as opposed to soft- or hard-caps) that varies with the size of the system. With a 1,000 population system, the cap is somewhere in the region of 20%. With a 1 billion pop, the cap is closer to 2%.

That reflects our findings pretty closely, though I found in 8 billion pop ~3.5% was closer to the mark.

Test 3 : Single Player, 20%+ "Overkill" massive Input per-System, single Activity. Result : 5%

There's something odd here FalconFly, or the activity you guys chose has a sharper diminishing return curve than some others. My main system these days is roughly 17mil, and I'm easily able to push 10-12% with just trade as an activity & no state in play. There's effectively never any other traffic to disrupt results.

 

[Deleted member 38366]

There's something odd here FalconFly, or the activity you guys chose has a sharper diminishing return curve than some others. My main system these days is roughly 17mil, and I'm easily able to push 10-12% with just trade as an activity & no state in play. There's effectively never any other traffic to disrupt results.

Please read the bottom of my last post (kinda think we posted at the same time).
It could very well be you're correct.

I for my part traded the paint of my Cutter during the Trade Activity tests. Thousands of tons, Millions after Millions of Profits, many runs and >50 individual Inputs (min. 25tons per Input) to absolutely push all Multiplicators to their limit.
Didn't matter. 5%. Same with Bounty Hunting (Overkill Inputs designed to really push the Daily System Inf Cap) or pretty much anything else.

--- edit ---

Technically speaking, one could interpret those events, findings and benchmarks differently (at least that observed Activity Cap) :

In the past, many BGS guys have seen strangely differing benchmark results presented by other Players. Typically those were put down to improper benchmark/analysis and in not few cases, it actually turned out to be the issue.

However, there's a second possible explanation :
What if Frontier simply decided to give individual, extremely dedicated BGS Players a "handicap" ?

That could explain at least some of the drastically differing Results and Experiences.

Play 1-2 hrs per Day and you observe normal BGS limitations, diminishing returns and get the usual Benchmark result which to 90-100% will match what you see being documented and reported elsewhere.
Hit it off really hard over a prolonged time, and you might suddenly see above limitations kick in.

Now that'd be kinda hard to verify, but at least it would provide a somewhat plausible explanation.
After 2 years with the BGS, I've naturally developed a very precise eye for what's going on with it.
And after having run what was once single largest developed Faction (System Control/Presence) in the entire Galaxy, I kinda know my stuff cold - to put it mildly.
And hitting it off hard... I definitely did

I don't do BGS work anymore, but if you're a BGS guy and see such "oddball" observations, just keep that possibility in mind even if it might only affect a very few.

 

[kurush]

That could explain at least some of the drastically differing Results and Experiences.

Play 1-2 hrs per Day and you observe normal BGS limitations, diminishing returns and get the usual Benchmark result which to 90-100% will match what you see being documented and reported elsewhere.
Hit it off really hard over a prolonged time, and you might suddenly see above limitations kick in.

That actually makes a perfect sense if you consider all those exploits with abandoning missions and selling the wares or spamming the donations where people were even writing scripts to run it for days. May be devs decided to fix the issue of certain factions going down fast because of that by handicapping dedicated players who do the same thing again and again. Now the exploits are mostly fixed but the players remain handicapped

 

[the100thmonkey]

That reflects our findings pretty closely, though I found in 8 billion pop ~3.5% was closer to the mark.

You are probably right. Those are the numbers I was pushing, but it was in an agri that saw traffic every day and I was working to undermine the faction that ran the station. They no longer do, and the new controlling faction chugs along nicely on its own.

I'm extremely sceptical of any explanation of BGS behaviour that includes deus ex machina explanations such as "the devs were messing with us," even as a caveat.

 

[Deleted member 38366]

I'm extremely sceptical of any explanation of BGS behaviour that includes deus ex machina explanations such as "the devs were messing with us," even as a caveat.

You're not alone. It took >2 months of observation, preparation and dedicated Analysis to develop the Tests and setting up the various "Mousetraps" to verify it.
If we hadn't been able to do that, I would have put it down to "extremely bad luck" as well.

The day of the BGS rollback actually unexpectedly helped out, however.
After seeing yet another of these "magic Inf matches" to trigger yet another useless War with us, the BGS got rolled back... Now having the old Delta to the Faction we internally already called "Magneto".
Despite the BGS that day being nearly unworkable due to its livecycke being only a mere ~3-4hrs, I gave very distinct/different Scatter Inputs to prevent any compressed re-run to create the same Inf Picture.
However... a few hours later the new BGS Data ran in and (you might have guessed it), the scripted (BGS override) Inf Match was in place again, just with different numbers that didn't even remotely reflect my Inputs.
Notably, all this in a System with some Traffic, so getting even a single normal Inf matchup would be extremely difficult to achieve due to too many unknown factors and Inputs from random Players.

In the end, it became so predictable we could set the clock to it.
The only way to disable that "Magneto" Faction from triggering vs. us was to permanently and perpetually entangle it in Conflicts elsewhere.
Again... it very notably didn't >ever< receive even an inch of Support under these conditions, meaning there clearly weren't any Players interested in actually supporting it >at all<. Go figure.

(I also applied a statistical anomaly model as a backup, which basically ended up with propabilities far exceeding a Lottery Jackpot, clearly indicating a Positive Anomaly Detection, going hand in hand with several other Anomaly Indicators we were able to work out over time)

 

[Sitoutumaton]

Do you think these anomalies are bound to your account or the faction your group supports?

 

[Deleted member 38366]

In order to test that, I'd need a workable area.
Being in Colonia now I don't have suitable Testing Grounds anymore (I might find a low enough Traffic System there, but I don't want to screw up Influence for other System-Controlling Factions/Groups).
Every place I see here isn't my turf, the area is subject to a seemingly fragile balance and some mutual understanding amongst many Groups. I won't mess around with that.

And overall, I turned my back on the BGS, since I don't like to play on uneven Ground or deal with "Central Planning Overrides" or "Handicaps".
Plus, I've seen it all (the good, the bad and the ugly) long enough, so I don't have any interest in it anymore.

Basically all I wrote is just something to keep in the back of your mind if you
- are a dedicated BGS worker
- see "strange stuff happening" and have no idea where it's coming from

6 months ago, I personally would have put all that down into the realms of "Mysteries" and "Urban Legends".
Now? Not so much, not after actually seeing it happen over such a long time.

Now I'm just a "small fish in the bowl" earning my some Credits for my remaining Ship Transfers and only have a lookout not to screw up other Groups' BGS work.

 

[Jmanis]

Just worth noting (as most of the pertinent points have been covered).

Missions like "Covert Election Combat Operation" are nigh on impossible to do, and are substantially broken (imo). Better to do other missions to help an election out.

 

[the100thmonkey]

Falconfly:

That's just a feature of the sim. When you try to blow past another faction, it will catch, match influence levels and put you into a conflict.

If you manage to push past, it will be because the faction is in a blocking state elsewhere.

The devs aren't messing with you; you've just misunderstood the behaviour of the sim.