Newcomer / Intro Can someone help me understand how Supply and Demand work in the Commodities market?

Hello, I will try and keep this short but I want to explain where I am confused.

Last night, after the update lag had settled down, I went out in my Type-7 to haul Tritium after I saw on EDDB that it was selling for ~5300 at a station near my home. The supply on EDDB showed 274, so I was skeptical that another player might go pick it up before I got there, but I made the trip anyway and was pleased to see that the station had 274 units available. One jump away, I was selling those 274 units for 53,000 each. I've never made a profit like that. It was amazing. I went back to the original station and, to my delight, another 274 units of Tritium were available. This time I bought them and hauled them a little further, to a station paying 63,000 per unit. I made something like 17 million on that trip. Then, a little further in another direction, I saw a station with a supply of 2800. I was getting ready to do some combat missions so I told my friend who was one jump away, he went and confirmed that yes, they were that price at that supply. He bought them and hauled them in his AspX for 63000 credits per unit as well.

While travelling, I tried to make sense of the commodities board. I use EDDB as well as the in-game tools, but I do not understand how supply works. Demand seems fairly straightforward--you supply 300 units of Silver and the demand goes down by 300 until it reaches 0, at which time the station will pay less for the goods. Or it scales on the way down to 0, bottoming out at 0. I guess I don't really know how demand works either.

This morning I logged on to see that both the 274 supply and the 2800 supply station are no longer listed on EDDB--it seems nowhere is selling for less than 40k. My in-game market tools agree with this information.

So my questions are as follows:

  1. Why did the 274 supply refresh when I went back to the station? If that happens, why do some stations have supplies of over 100,000?
  2. If supply dictates price, how did a 274 supply station have Tritium for 5000 credits, when the 139,000 supply station was charging 40k? I've seen a similar thing with Polymers selling for 60 units at some stations, but thousands of units at other--similar supply.
  3. Are the market boards changing live, as all pilots interact with them, or are they refreshing at specific intervals? When I see demand drop, is that because I got there at the time of a server tick, or because it updates as I offload cargo?
  4. Is it possible that stations ARE selling Tritium for 5000, and it's just that nobody has entered the station using one of the EDDB API tools to update the website?
  5. If 4 is yes, is there a reason I would want to close E:D Market Connector and avoid letting other pilots know, or will I be unaffected by others racing to a super cheap system?
Thank you for your time.
 
There are two factors in supply - size of supply and refresh rate.

Refresh rate is how much the commodity is resupplied by in each market "tick," which is on a ten-minute cycle. A high supply station can have a small size, so that its pool of commodity is refreshed each tick, as in your 274t example. A large pool with a high refresh rate will maintain prices better.

Commodity prices, I don't know much about beyond the observation that system states such as boom, bust, investment, civil liberty, public holiday and others have an effect on the buy and sell prices in the commodity markets.

As for EDMC, it's designed to share information with others, so if you don't want anyone else to know about that great buy price you've just found, the only thing you can do is not tell anyone about it. This implies that you should turn it off. Of course, you can't guarantee that another player won't go through a system with EDMC active, but you can control your own data sharing, at least.
 
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Just checked EDDB - definitely looks interesting. Are you sure that was a station and not a fleet carrier?

Right now, I can find stations to buy from as low as 32k, and one carrier at the minimum price of 2k - albeit 11 hours ago, so that one likely either sold out or moved off by now.
And I can find stations to sell to as high as 65k, with one carrier offering 100k 5 minutes ago.
The problem with carriers is, though, that the owners can change the prices arbitrarily, and they can restrict access to their friends, so I wouldn't count on a carrier being available to buy or sell unless I've checked it out in person.
 
Just checked EDDB - definitely looks interesting. Are you sure that was a station and not a fleet carrier?

Right now, I can find stations to buy from as low as 32k, and one carrier at the minimum price of 2k - albeit 11 hours ago, so that one likely either sold out or moved off by now.
And I can find stations to sell to as high as 65k, with one carrier offering 100k 5 minutes ago.
The problem with carriers is, though, that the owners can change the prices arbitrarily, and they can restrict access to their friends, so I wouldn't count on a carrier being available to buy or sell unless I've checked it out in person.
Yeah they were stations.. we interacted with both ourselves. One was in the Thanatos system, the other was in one of the LHS systems I think.

I'm seeing a ton of carriers in the Cupinhook system with a wide range of buy/sell prices, but I'm also seeing a station that seems to be selling Tritium for 12k per ton. I guess I'm going on a trip.. at the very least I might get to see a carrier up close.
 
States.
Faction states have a massive effect on price. Famine (very rare state) makes tritium dirt cheap.
In this scenario, I suspect the factions famine state ended, so the price went back to normal.
 
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