Powerplay Christmas Special Edition Cycle 29 Commentary

Raw Data will be here if it is released

Cycle 28
Cycle 27
Cycle 26
Cycle 25
Cycle 24
Cycle 23
Cycle 22

Its time for the Christmas Special Edition of my PP commentary.
What special about this one?

Its a few days later than usual, and the raw data hasn't been released, so the charts will be very different, and based on the previous weeks data.

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Above are the number of weeks since each power lost control of a system.
I put 29 for Archon Delaine and Felicia Winters, which isn't exactly accurate, but infinity didn't seem right either :)


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Above is a chart showing the total number of systems for each Power, and showing their Major Faction Allegiance.

Mahon has over 97% of all exploited Alliance systems, with Winters and Hudson taking the remaining 3%.
No other power has an Alliance system within their territory.



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The left chart above shows the total amount of fortification needed to fortify 100% of all of each Powers systems.
This is obviously influenced by the total number of systems, Antal has the lowest number of systems (all data is from the previous week) and also needs the lowest amount of fortification.

And the chart on the right hand side shows the total number of undermining merits needed to undermine 100% of each powers control systems.
Mahon has the most number of control systems, and needs the most amount of undermining, and Antal and Delaine are the easiest to undermine 100%, and they have the lowest number of systems, so these 2 charts don't make too much clear, other than fortifying more systems is harder than fortifying fewer systems.

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These two charts are identical, the left chart orders the powers by Average fortification trigger, the right chart orders by Average undermining trigger.

Fortification triggers are influenced by the systems distance from the capital, and their triggers can be lowered depending on the government types of the systems.
The more spread out a Power is, and the less favorable governments, the more fortification is needed.

Winters is the 4th largest power, with 66 systems, but has the lowest average fortification triggers.
Corporate governments are the ones that she has lower fortification triggers for, and Federation space has many of these governments.

Hudson has both the worst average fortification triggers, and the worst average undermining triggers for himself.

Hudson, Delaine and Aisling all have very bad (for where they are situated in space) government types for their fortification triggers, and its difficult for them to have any triggers lowered.

Antal and Torval have a better selection of favorable governments than the 3 Powers mentioned above.

The other 5 Powers all have favorable government types which are plentiful in their region of space, and have an advantage when it comes to their fortification trigger levels.


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And you can see the standard deviation for the trigger amounts on the above chart, to give even more detail over the average.

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Here is the score comparison from the past several weeks.
You can see how much larger Mahons lead is getting.

In the last week Torval, Antal and Patreus all increased their score.
Torval and Antal expanded, and Patreus left Turmoil without losing a system, so their increase is logical.

Hudson, ALD, Winters and Delaine all had a decrease in their scores.
Hudson and ALD lost systems and are still in Turmoil, Winters and Delaine both expanded 2 weeks ago (so their score was higher) but then didn't expand last week, so you could look at their decrease in score as just going back to where it would have been 2 weeks ago, if they didn't expand.

Sirius, Mahon and Aisling didn't have much movement in their scores.
Aisling got no expansions last week, or the one before and Mahon got 1 expansion in both weeks, so their score staying equal makes sense.
Sirius went into Turmoil this week, but hasn't lost any system, his score is the only one that isn't quite in line with the others.

Speculation and Commentary

With the Christmas Holidays its difficult to know what will happen.
Player participation could be down or up by a large margin, and different across all powers.

Mahon 89%
Mahon retained number 1 position with a massive 89% to 65% lead.

He was one of only 3 Powers to secure an expansion, which takes him up to 83 Control Systems.
Mahon still has a very healthy starting CC balance of 1172, so he can still soak up a large amount of undermining before he has to start worrying about fortification.

With Hudson unable to expand this week, Mahon will certainly still be in the number 1 position next week.

Hudson 65%
The President lost 3 systems to Turmoil, and has another 3 systems in Turmoil this week.
He is still in 2nd place, but could fall down to 5th position is he remains in Turmoil.

Fortification will be his players main focus, but they have also listed Torval as their main undermining target.
If his players can pull him out of Turmoil, he should retain 2nd position.

Winters 65%
The Shadow President is listed on Mahon's page as having the closest score to him, so perhaps should be ranked 2nd this week, but is listed in 3rd position.

Winters is currently expanding into HIP 44811, which is inside ALD territory and should attract a large amount of opposition.
Winters doesn't expand through combat, so this will have no chance of actually winning, but with ALD having no expansions, it will be interesting to see how high the opposition will go.

If Hudson and ALD remain in Turmoil, Winters should move up to 2nd position, but 4th is as low as they should fall no matter what happens.

ALD 61%
The Emperor lost 3 systems to Turmoil, and has another 2 systems in Turmoil this week, both of which are loss making systems.
If ALD remains in Turmoil, she should move into 5th position, but its difficult to see her dropping into the bottom 5.

Hudson will probably be their main undermining focus, to make him lose his 3 systems in Turmoil.

If they can get out of Turmoil this week (although they probably want to lose their systems) they could move back up to 2nd, depending on what happens to Hudson and Winters.

Aisling 59%
The peoples princess has 4 expansions this week, 3 of which should win easily, with only one being targeted for opposition.

If ALD and Hudson remain in Turmoil, and Winters doesn't win an expansion, its possible Aisling will move into 2nd position at the end of the week.

No Power is publicly targetting Aisling for undermining, but should she fall into Turmoil, its possible she will drop to 7th position, but 5th or 6th is more likely.

Torval 53%
Torval was one of only 3 powers to expand last cycle, and has moved back up to 6th position.

This week Hudson has targeted her for undermining, so there is a very good chance she will hit Turmoil, but this could be used to shed even more bad systems.

If she does hit Turmoil, its difficult to predict what will happen, Sirius may also still be in Turmoil, and Torval may stay in 6th position.

If Torval wins her expansion (which is loss making) and avoids Turmoil, she may move above Aisling, but it would be difficult for her to move into 4th position.

Sirius 46%
Sirius fell victim to another snipe attack last week, and one profitable system is currently in Turmoil.

Winters, Mahon and Antal have been carving up ex-Sirius systems in the past few weeks, and it will be interesting to see who takes advantage of any more systems Sirius may lose.

Its possible Patreus may move ahead of Sirius, but very unlikely, so they should be ranked 6th or 7th at the end of the week.

Antal 43%
The Utopians expanded to 4 out of 6 of the total expansions from all powers last week, which gave them a massive boost in their % score, moving them up to 8th.
Several of these expansions were in areas Sirius controlled a few weeks ago, and it is unclear if any more systems next to Sirius space will be prepared this week.

If Antal wins both of his expansions he should stay above Delaine, but its possible Patreus may be ranked above him at the end of the cycle, although Antal will have a very close number of systems to Patreus.

Patreus 36%
The senator was able to fortify out of Turmoil without losing a system, and moved up to 9th position.

This week he has enough CC to prepare systems again, which may remove some focus from his fortifications.

Without any expansions this week, should Antal and Delaine win expansions, he could move back down to 10th position.

If Antal's and Delaine's expansions are stopped, he may move past Sirius or Torval, if either of them are in Turmoil at the end of the week, but this is unlikely.

Delaine 33%
The pirate lord moved down to 10th position, after not winning an expansion, and Antal winning 4.

With a surplus of only 11cc, no systems will be prepared this week, which will allow more focus on other activities, but there will be no opportunity to expand next cycle.

With less expansions than Antal, its likely he will be ranked under Antal again, but if he wins his expansion he should be ranked above Patreus, and if Patreus is pushed back into Turmoil this should be a certainty.
 
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Great read even without this cycle's data to work with. Thanks for taking the time to write this despite the whole christmas thing. As usual, I have a few comments on specific bits:

http://i.imgur.com/5uRtBP9.png
These two charts are identical, the left chart orders the powers by Average fortification trigger, the right chart orders by Average undermining trigger.
One thing that might be interesting here is to compare the current fortification triggers with the ones from, say, cycle 10 (assuming the data is available or at least obtainable by asking for it). That should show which powers are being proactive about working on the background sim to reduce triggers. I know for a fact that we at Mahon used to have multiple systems with triggers in the 10-15k range (and boy were they a pain...), and now we only have a couple left due to the stellar work of our BGS people. A graph showing average fortification trigger/average distance from HQ might also be interesting, since powers that are tightly packed around their HQ will have lower triggers by default.

Sirius 46%
Sirius fell victim to another snip attack last week, and one profitable system is currently in Turmoil.

Winters, Mahon and Antal have been carving up ex-Sirius systems in the past few weeks, and it will be interesting to see who takes advantage of any more systems Sirius may lose.
To be fair, we only tried to take one system, and failed. Trigger proved horrifying so in the end we put no effort into it. And we only did it after checking with the Sirius people if they wanted it back. As it turns out, all the Sirius systems are so far away from us that, with that one exception, they're horrible for us. And even that one system was marginal at best. Might still give it another shot if they still don't want it back and leave it up for grabs for a week or two after coming out of turmoil, though - marginal is better than outright bad.

Delaine 33%
The pirate lord moved down to 10th position, after not winning an expansion, and Antal winning 4.

With a surplus of only 11cc, no systems will be prepared this week, which will allow more focus on other activities, but there will be no opportunity to expand next cycle.
You forgot to mention how you got sniped for four systems and managed to fortify out of impending turmoil with what seemed like minutes to spare! I'm still surprised and impressed you managed to haul that many documents that quickly. WE DO NOT TURMOIL, indeed!

[Edit] STILL won't let me rep you. What the hell?
 
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Excellent as always Ferg. One of two (perhaps now the only) posts I simply cannot wait to read every week!
 
Great read even without this cycle's data to work with. Thanks for taking the time to write this despite the whole christmas thing. As usual, I have a few comments on specific bits:


One thing that might be interesting here is to compare the current fortification triggers with the ones from, say, cycle 10 (assuming the data is available or at least obtainable by asking for it). That should show which powers are being proactive about working on the background sim to reduce triggers. I know for a fact that we at Mahon used to have multiple systems with triggers in the 10-15k range (and boy were they a pain...), and now we only have a couple left due to the stellar work of our BGS people. A graph showing average fortification trigger/average distance from HQ might also be interesting, since powers that are tightly packed around their HQ will have lower triggers by default.
XDdOnHO.png

Thats using week 21 and 29
To be fair, we only tried to take one system, and failed.
I think Mahon tried one, Winters tried one, and Antal tried 2, and Antal won both, not a peep out of Sirius about it, but they are certainly not keen for Winters to take their systems.

You forgot to mention how you got sniped for four systems and managed to fortify out of impending turmoil with what seemed like minutes to spare! I'm still surprised and impressed you managed to haul that many documents that quickly. WE DO NOT TURMOIL, indeed!
Its true, we had a very quiet week, but whoever undermined us was all hands on deck last week.

I thought the chart I added to the OP with the number of weeks since last system lost was enough of a hint at WE DO NOT TURMOIL.
 
All praise Mahon, the destroyer of economics!

Still can't rep Fergy either! Must be some Patreus' scheme at hand... :D
 
Thats using week 21 and 29
Quite interesting. You'd expect powers to have a higher average fortification trigger as they grow, due to increasing distance, but for Winters it actually went down over those eight weeks. They've definitely been busy. Ours barely moved, which isn't to bad either. Antal is probably due to them shedding all those horrible systems with controlled turmoil. For the rest, I can't really remember who gained or lost systems, so I'd have to check up on that first.

Thanks for the extra graphs.
 
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I think Mahon tried one, Winters tried one, and Antal tried 2, and Antal won both, not a peep out of Sirius about it, but they are certainly not keen for Winters to take their systems.

Kind of makes you wonder what the motivation is behind their only opposing Winters... personally I think it is because they are the silent 5th Imperial power.... I notice they are setting up to oppose another of Winters' expansions this week as well. Calling it their territory even though it is well outside of their bubble.

Am I the only one who finds it interesting that the 3 powers that have gone the longest without losing systems are also the 3 most Opposed powers?
 
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Kind of makes you wonder what the motivation is behind their only opposing Winters... personally I think it is because they are the silent 5th Imperial power.... I notice they are setting up to oppose another of Winters' expansions this week as well. Calling it their territory even though it is well outside of their bubble.

Am I the only one who finds it interesting that the 3 powers that have gone the longest without losing systems are also the 3 most Opposed powers?


What I find odd is how much opposition Mahon actually receives... Nobody in the *organized* ALD community ever focuses them, and the systems that get undermined the most are too far for our grinders to bother with. So.. Who's the culprit?

Winters and Kumo crew are understandable.. "Pegasi Pirate War" rages on even though I have been slamming my fist and insisting that everyone stop bothering with wasting Merits on the Pirates.

Winters is extremely close to ALD space, so it's expected that she will be an opportunity target. She also has an extremely good economy. Nice evenly distributed CC income and good fortification triggers, which explains why she can easily counter any undermining.

Edit: Also, I assure you that Sirius is not a 5th Empire Power. We don't really have any contact with them. Maybe they just don't like Winters?
 
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What I find odd is how much opposition Mahon actually receives... Nobody in the *organized* ALD community ever focuses them, and the systems that get undermined the most are too far for our grinders to bother with. So.. Who's the culprit?

Winters and Kumo crew are understandable.. "Pegasi Pirate War" rages on even though I have been slamming my fist and insisting that everyone stop bothering with wasting Merits on the Pirates.

Winters is extremely close to ALD space, so it's expected that she will be an opportunity target. She also has an extremely good economy. Nice evenly distributed CC income and good fortification triggers, which explains why she can easily counter any undermining.

Edit: Also, I assure you that Sirius is not a 5th Empire Power. We don't really have any contact with them. Maybe they just don't like Winters?

Alioth side is undermined by Hudson pledgers. Leesti side is undermined by ALD pledgers. Winters side sees an awfully low amount of undermining, so they have good control of their grinders and send them to Lugh.

Leesti side also sees much more opposition when it comes to expansions lately, so the ALD "grinders" are much more vicious.

To what extent either side is connected with the reddits can only be attributed to speculation, but relationships with the Feds have been overall better lately. Hudson has put some effort into not contesting systems from us and the release of Partha is a big plus. Relationships with the Imperial reddits has always been a neutral medium by default without the need for further discussions. That's also appreciated.

With the introduction of xbox in the scene, this might have got some deviation, but not by much.

As for Sirius, they seem to be confused on what they want their neutrality to be and how to apply it. The Mahon expansion attempt to GRCV was after they personally asked us to get it so that the Feds don't. Then another part of their community didn't seem to agree/be informed about it and opposed it hard enough for us to not bother.

Frankly, I don't blame them for the overall confusion they find themselves in, because the snipes are taking a big toll on them. I just wish we didn't have to waste a preparation slot for something that wasn't unanimously agreed. It makes little to no difference for us in the end though. They'd better get it back fast though, because if Hudson sets his eyes upon it, there ain't no stop on the expansion train.
 
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What I find odd is how much opposition Mahon actually receives... Nobody in the *organized* ALD community ever focuses them, and the systems that get undermined the most are too far for our grinders to bother with. So.. Who's the culprit?
Everyone. That's all there is to it really. Fed grinders along our border with them, independent grinders along our Antal/Sirius border, Imperial grinders around the old worlds. Plus deeper strikes by individuals/groups from various powers who for some reason have an axe to grind with the Alliance, which might be as simple as us being #1 and them wanting to take us down a peg. Which is certainly understandable. At a rough guess, I'd say 60-70% of the undermining we recieve is grinders, and only the remaining 30-40% is directed. From time to time we have a week where the directed undermining goes up significantly, but not every week. We had an incident lately where a bunch of XBox players were responsible for a lot of last-day sniping, for example. About 2000CC worth of it. But ultimately it was dealt with.

And of course, there's the fact that we CAN be undermined by everyone. I suspect the only powers that we don't get regular grinders from are Kumo Crew and Aisling, due to sheer distance. And even that isn't certain - we do have a couple of control systems that are far enough south to be within easy FdL range (well... "easy". It's an FdL after all) from those two powers.
 
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Alioth side is undermined by Hudson pledgers. Leesti side is undermined by ALD pledgers. Winters side sees an awfully low amount of undermining, so they have good control of their grinders and send them to Lugh.

Leesti side also sees much more opposition when it comes to expansions lately, so the ALD "grinders" are much more vicious.

To what extent either side is connected with the reddits can only be attributed to speculation, but relationships with the Feds have been overall better lately. Hudson has put some effort into not contesting systems from us and the release of Partha is a big plus. Relationships with the Imperial reddits has always been a neutral medium by default without the need for further discussions. That's also appreciated.

With the introduction of xbox in the scene, this might have got some deviation, but not by much.

As for Sirius, they seem to be confused on what they want their neutrality to be and how to apply it. The Mahon expansion attempt to GRCV was after they personally asked us to get it so that the Feds don't. Then another part of their community didn't seem to agree/be informed about it and opposed it hard enough for us to not bother.

Frankly, I don't blame them for the overall confusion they find themselves in, because the snipes are taking a big toll on them. I just wish we didn't have to waste a preparation slot for something that wasn't unanimously agreed. It makes little to no difference for us in the end though. They'd better get it back fast though, because if Hudson sets his eyes upon it, there ain't no stop on the expansion train.

True. Hence why I say "Organized" ALD community. Lavingys Legion does the majority of the *organized* undermining against Feds and The White Templars do the majority of the ALD undermining against Kumo; and I know Patreus does their fair share of Kumo as well. I can't speak for Independent Aisling pilots or Torvals people; but I doubt anyone sees much undermining from Torval. When we can, we request cooperation from other Empire player groups to undermine or oppose specific systems (Hudson last week, HIP 44811 this week and the week before last, etc.)

That said, there is a *huge* private player-base that may have their own diplomacy, politics, grudges and grievances, and of course you have countless players in Solo, and Xbox groups with theirs as well.

Some "ambient" levels of undermining are expected for and against every power, as grinders find the path of least resistance. Why fly 200 LY to undermine a profitable Hudson system that is left unfortified when you can go 3 jumps and undermine Neche (winters) to 6000% and earn your merits just the same? Same applies to all of us. So while it's impossible for me (or anyone) to say "ALD doesn't undermine Mahon", the best I can give you is "The Open play community that I am in contact with has no interest in or history of undermining Mahon."

In terms of Sirius - There have been "talks" in the past about some cooperation between ALD and Sirius, but to my knowledge a formal agreement was never reached and we're not "officially" allied with Sirius nor do our respective player-groups keep contact with one another or organize our efforts. But again; whatever happens on XBox or behind the scenes in large Private-Group servers is beyond our reach or ability to speak on.
 
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