Raw Data Here
Martin Schou's Analysis
Cycle 25
Cycle 24
Cycle 23
Cycle 22
Raw data is out, lets see what it shows.
Total Merits
Hudson dominates the total merits again, because ALD had no expansions.
ALD comes in at number 2, even though she had only fortification merits.
Aisling is number 3, then a large gap to the rest, but who's this in number 4?
Antal players were obviously excited to be able to expand again, and you can see a massive proportion of their merits are from expansion.
Delaine moves past Mahon into 6th with another massive ratio of expansions (Hudson, Antal and Delaine all have combat expansions)
And the same chart without expansions.
Hudson, Antal and Delaine all move down the most without these merits.
Effective Merits
You can see the odd man out.
Archon Delaine was the only power to successfully expand last cycle.
All other expansions failed outright, or the powers fell into Turmoil, which makes all expansions fail.
Aisling takes out the most effective merits just like last week.
ALD 2nd, Hudson 3rd, but Delaine slips into 4th position, mostly due to the above mentioned expansion.
Patreus had a large increase in their effective fortifications, and they had a number of systems that had the exact number of merits handed in to fortify them, which made me change my formula because I was only seeing if a greater number of merits were delivered, not greater than or equal to.
Opposition
Hudson takes out the top spot, due to the large amount of merits opposing his expansion in ALDs territory.
Mahon, Winters and Delaine are also in the top 4 as usual, with Sirius in his normal high place of 5th.
Antal moves up from last or second last, and Patreus experiences a bit more undermining that they are used to.
ALD, Aisling and Torval experiences basically no opposition, but Torval and Aisling fell into Turmoil mostly due to their poor weekly starting CC balance.
Hudson dominates the effective opposition merits.
Mahon is number 2.
Patreus is in new territory, being the 3rd most opposed power last cycle, pushing Winters down, and Delaine out of the top 4, which hasn't happened for a very long time.
Interestingly the 4 Powers who received the least amount of effective opposition were the 4 powers who ended the cycle in Turmoil.
Weekly Charts
ALD set a new record for total amount of fortification, but you can see on the right hand side chart this didn't translate into effective fortification.
You can also see the uptick in Patreus's effective fortification, in response to the increase in their undermining level.
Mahon was undermined the most (the far above chart for just this week combined both undermining and expansion opposition) and he is looking like the most undermined power for the last 10 weeks.
But we are told by Hudson and ALD players that its not organised by them.
The increase in undermining on Patreus as Winters and Hudson targeted him.
Winters and Delaines undermining is down a bit, and Antal, Sirius, Torval and Aislings undermining are up.
ALD continues hew see-sawing undermined levels.
Speculation and Commentary
Below is the maximum number of cycles each power has went without a sucessful expansion.
Antal and Patreus are currently on 5, Patreus has no expansion this week, Antal does though.
This cycle had quite a few interesting developments.
Hudson, 81%
The President moves back into 1st position (I have no idea why) after fortifying enough (maybe thats it) to leave Turmoil.
Hudson went to war with (well we don't know for certain) ALD with their expansion that contested a large number of ADL systems in HIP 44811.
1061588 merits vs 603750 was the total with Hudson winning easily on totals, but thats not how expansions work, the end results were 8052% vs 9309% to defeat Hudsons expansion.
Archon Delaine has had more opposition in his expansions in cycle 19 (982250 merits), but it was the most combined merits (for and against) for an expansion.
This cycle Hudson has 687cc to spend o preparations, so will have to work hard to keep good systems on the list.
With a weekly starting balance of 731cc, Hudsons PP economy is still very healthy, and many more unprofitable systems can be absorbed at this stage.
With no expansions this week, Hudson may move back to 2nd position, but should certainly be in the top 2 unless hit with Turmoil.
ALD has been listed as the public target of Hudson, so it will be interesting to see if their usual expansion merits are turned into undermining merits.
Perhaps more preparations inside ALD territory will be pursued?
Mahon, 77%
The Prime Minister moves down 1 position to 2nd, in part due to not securing an expansion.
Mahons starting weekly CC balance is still the best in PP with 1128, giving the same buffer to the large amount of undermining that Mahon suffers each week, which was the most again this week.
No-one is still to claim responsibility on the attacks on Mahon, but its becoming increasingly clear they are from an organised group or power, with the amount of wasted merits getting smaller and smaller.
With 4 expansions that are all profitable, or barely loss making, they should all be pursued for success.
If all 4 expand, he should move back into 1st position, but its unclear if only one expansion will be enough for this to happen.
2nd should be the lowest rank Mahon has at the end of the week.
ALD, 67%
The Emperor fortified enough to escape Turmoil (a new total fortification record of 926528) and move up to 3rd position.
Guathiti received over 45% of the total fortification, 419662 merits in total.
Its becoming increasingly worrying whats wrong with these players, and perhaps an update to the PP "manual" is needed to explain what 100% fortified means.
To put this into context, Aisling (who has 3rd most) total fortification was 422878. Guathiti is basically a power unto itself.
With Hudson and Winters both openly targeting ALD this week, 90% or more of her systems could be undermined, and a high level of effective fortification will be needed to stop profitable systems falling into Turmoil, but Turmoil itself probably can't be stopped.
This should be used to try to shed more bad systems, but this is always much harder to do in practice.
ALD has a large cc surplus to expand with, but with profitable systems drying up, expansions in Federation space are a possibility, with Mbutsi already getting Hudsons "less astute" players attention.
With ALD probably falling into Turmoil, 5th (where she just was when in Turmoil) is a possibility, but its hard to see her ranked better than 3rd no matter what happens this week.
Winters, 65%
The Shadow President dropped down one position to 4th with ALD climbing out of Turmoil.
Undermining on Winters was at its lowest level for 6 weeks, and fortification was also reduced to match what was needed.
ALD has been publicly announced as Winters undermining target.
The system of Amuzgo was prepared last cycle, which contests 11 of ALDs systems, and will be under heavy opposition from ALD.
It is unclear if more systems will be prepared in Imperial territory, but this is a trend that will probably be followed.
Aisling, 58%
The Peoples Princess entered Turmoil with the blessing of some of her players, to avoid a loss making expansion, and give another chance to lose loss making systems.
The two systems in Turmoil are loss making, so staying in Turmoil will probably be the plan, but this has left them open to being undermined in the past, and with the 5th column allegations (perhaps unfounded) continually being placed at Aislings door, there is no shortage of enemies willing to do just this.
If Aisling does lose 2 systems at the end of the week, she may drop out of the top 5, but with Sirius and Torval also in Turmoil, this is unlikely.
There are no official undermining targets for Aisling, but the Pirate War is always listed on their reddit, and Antal and Sirius are possibilities, along with the Federation.
Sirius, 48%
The CEO swaps ranking with Torval although they both entered Turmoil.
It was the start of some public drama in Ship Discount Land (what I might call playing PP) where the system of Dheneb was engaged in a preparation war between Sirius, Patreus and Antal.
This system was next to the just lost Patreus Control System of 47 Ceti, in an area of space I called the 47 Ceti Oasis Zone (due to the green cc income dots appearing in the desert of available systems)
Sirius was able to win the preparation war and now has this system available for expansion.
Unfortunately Sirius was undermined into Turmoil, with 3 very profitable systems ready to revolt.
If Sirius fortified out of Turmoil without a loss of systems, he could be above Aisling (and perhaps ALD) in the top 5.
If these 3 systems are lost, its possible he will be in the bottom 3, although this will be temporary.
So who undermined peaceful Sirius?
The raw data tells us nothing, I have only High Octane Speculation.
Its hard to believe it was Antal or Delaine, because of the Piracy mechanic they need to use.
Torval and Mahon are unlikely candidates.
Patreus is the Power with the most to gain, because of the Sirius preparation into what they consider "their" area, but Patreus was probably stretched too thin to actually do it.
This leaves Aisling or ALD (perhaps using the situation with Patreus as an excuse) or Winters or Hudson.
Undermining on Delaine, Hudson and Winters (ALD and Aisling undermining) was down, so this is a possibility.
Undermining on ALD was down (Federation undermining) but undermining on Patreus was somewhat up.
Still a possibility.
Torval, 46%
The Mining Senator went into Turmoil in a similar fashion to Aisling, not due to undermining, but a bad cc economy and less fortification.
Two loss making systems have been selected for revolt, which the players at Torval should be happy with.
With no real undermining, and no announcement of attacking anyone, Torval has certainly taken Antals previous mantel of the galaxys peaceful hippy (that sells lots of slaves at discounted prices)
If these 2 systems are lost, Torval may drop into the bottom 3, perhaps there is a Mining Community Goal on the horizon (no pun intended) for Torval players to spice things up a bit.
But its entirely possible they are the ones responsible for Sirius's and Antal's Turmoil.
Delaine, 39%
The Pirate lord moves back into 8th position, with the only successful expansion of the week.
Patreus was targeted (and is targeted again) for undermining, but he was able to fortify enough with no systems going into Turmoil.
Archons weekly starting cc balance is still a very healthy 911, giving him a large amount of undermining he can absorb.
With 579cc for preparations, it will be another week fighting off the bad systems.
The Imperial High Council has again listed Archon Delaine as their only target, this week they are focusing on undermining, so an increase from the extremely low undermining amounts of last week are expected.
Patreus, 37%
The Senator had a very eventful week, with mixed results, but his players will probably be happy with the outcome.
Delaine, Hudson and Winters all publicly targeted Patreus for undermining.
Antal had successfully prepared the system of Kenna the week before, which was from the area around the lost Patreus Control System of Utgaroar (the Utgaroar Oasis Zone), and began expansion.
Sirius began a prep war with Patreus as mentioned above, for Dheneb.
So Patreus found himself getting hit from all sides.
Antal won the expansion at Kenna, but went into Turmoil, so actually lost.
Sirius won the preparation race, but Patreus was able to fortify enough to counteract the increase in undermining he faced.
With only a cc balance of 36 he will be unable to prepare any systems, which isn't good if there is a mysterious collapse mechanic but if there isn't, not expanding seems the best policy right now when there are no profitable systems left in the galaxy.
It possible that Patreus could move up to 6th position, depending on what happens with Torval and Sirius, but its unlikely he will be in the top 5 at the end of the week.
Antal, 32%
The Utopians had an extremely eventful week, overall from a PP perspective it was a very bad week, but from a interesting and "fun" perspective, it was probably Antals best week so far.
Accusation of back stabbing were leveled at them from Patreus over their "stealth" preparing of "their" system.
Certain Aisling players rallied to help Patreus in their conflict with Antal.
Another system Patreus view as "theirs" was prepared, which Sirius won.
3 more preparations were made on the Patreus border, and the systems of Medzistha and Contie were successful and are currently available for expansion.
The Antal guys didn't stop there in their coming out party.
The system with the moving Jaques station was expanded, too bad we don't find out if they would have had a moving control system.
And the permit system of Luyten 347-14 in the middle of the federation was expanded.
5 expansion in total were pursued, with 3 winning which lead to Antal having the 4th most total merits last cycle.
But in the middle of all this expansion, Antal forgot about fortification and someone (I doubt it was Patreus even though he benefited the most) undermined him into Turmoil, making all the expansion effort waste.
The battle for Kenna ended on 143783 vs 117870, or 2026% vs 1323%
Hopefully Antals players continue their more aggressive stance, and don't get gun shy after being put into Turmoil.
Martin Schou's Analysis
Cycle 25
Cycle 24
Cycle 23
Cycle 22
Raw data is out, lets see what it shows.
Total Merits
Hudson dominates the total merits again, because ALD had no expansions.
ALD comes in at number 2, even though she had only fortification merits.
Aisling is number 3, then a large gap to the rest, but who's this in number 4?
Antal players were obviously excited to be able to expand again, and you can see a massive proportion of their merits are from expansion.
Delaine moves past Mahon into 6th with another massive ratio of expansions (Hudson, Antal and Delaine all have combat expansions)
And the same chart without expansions.
Hudson, Antal and Delaine all move down the most without these merits.
Effective Merits
You can see the odd man out.
Archon Delaine was the only power to successfully expand last cycle.
All other expansions failed outright, or the powers fell into Turmoil, which makes all expansions fail.
Aisling takes out the most effective merits just like last week.
ALD 2nd, Hudson 3rd, but Delaine slips into 4th position, mostly due to the above mentioned expansion.
Patreus had a large increase in their effective fortifications, and they had a number of systems that had the exact number of merits handed in to fortify them, which made me change my formula because I was only seeing if a greater number of merits were delivered, not greater than or equal to.
Opposition
Hudson takes out the top spot, due to the large amount of merits opposing his expansion in ALDs territory.
Mahon, Winters and Delaine are also in the top 4 as usual, with Sirius in his normal high place of 5th.
Antal moves up from last or second last, and Patreus experiences a bit more undermining that they are used to.
ALD, Aisling and Torval experiences basically no opposition, but Torval and Aisling fell into Turmoil mostly due to their poor weekly starting CC balance.
Hudson dominates the effective opposition merits.
Mahon is number 2.
Patreus is in new territory, being the 3rd most opposed power last cycle, pushing Winters down, and Delaine out of the top 4, which hasn't happened for a very long time.
Interestingly the 4 Powers who received the least amount of effective opposition were the 4 powers who ended the cycle in Turmoil.
Weekly Charts
ALD set a new record for total amount of fortification, but you can see on the right hand side chart this didn't translate into effective fortification.
You can also see the uptick in Patreus's effective fortification, in response to the increase in their undermining level.
Mahon was undermined the most (the far above chart for just this week combined both undermining and expansion opposition) and he is looking like the most undermined power for the last 10 weeks.
But we are told by Hudson and ALD players that its not organised by them.
The increase in undermining on Patreus as Winters and Hudson targeted him.
Winters and Delaines undermining is down a bit, and Antal, Sirius, Torval and Aislings undermining are up.
ALD continues hew see-sawing undermined levels.
Speculation and Commentary
Below is the maximum number of cycles each power has went without a sucessful expansion.
Antal and Patreus are currently on 5, Patreus has no expansion this week, Antal does though.
This cycle had quite a few interesting developments.
Hudson, 81%
The President moves back into 1st position (I have no idea why) after fortifying enough (maybe thats it) to leave Turmoil.
Hudson went to war with (well we don't know for certain) ALD with their expansion that contested a large number of ADL systems in HIP 44811.
1061588 merits vs 603750 was the total with Hudson winning easily on totals, but thats not how expansions work, the end results were 8052% vs 9309% to defeat Hudsons expansion.
Archon Delaine has had more opposition in his expansions in cycle 19 (982250 merits), but it was the most combined merits (for and against) for an expansion.
This cycle Hudson has 687cc to spend o preparations, so will have to work hard to keep good systems on the list.
With a weekly starting balance of 731cc, Hudsons PP economy is still very healthy, and many more unprofitable systems can be absorbed at this stage.
With no expansions this week, Hudson may move back to 2nd position, but should certainly be in the top 2 unless hit with Turmoil.
ALD has been listed as the public target of Hudson, so it will be interesting to see if their usual expansion merits are turned into undermining merits.
Perhaps more preparations inside ALD territory will be pursued?
Mahon, 77%
The Prime Minister moves down 1 position to 2nd, in part due to not securing an expansion.
Mahons starting weekly CC balance is still the best in PP with 1128, giving the same buffer to the large amount of undermining that Mahon suffers each week, which was the most again this week.
No-one is still to claim responsibility on the attacks on Mahon, but its becoming increasingly clear they are from an organised group or power, with the amount of wasted merits getting smaller and smaller.
With 4 expansions that are all profitable, or barely loss making, they should all be pursued for success.
If all 4 expand, he should move back into 1st position, but its unclear if only one expansion will be enough for this to happen.
2nd should be the lowest rank Mahon has at the end of the week.
ALD, 67%
The Emperor fortified enough to escape Turmoil (a new total fortification record of 926528) and move up to 3rd position.
Guathiti received over 45% of the total fortification, 419662 merits in total.
Its becoming increasingly worrying whats wrong with these players, and perhaps an update to the PP "manual" is needed to explain what 100% fortified means.
To put this into context, Aisling (who has 3rd most) total fortification was 422878. Guathiti is basically a power unto itself.
With Hudson and Winters both openly targeting ALD this week, 90% or more of her systems could be undermined, and a high level of effective fortification will be needed to stop profitable systems falling into Turmoil, but Turmoil itself probably can't be stopped.
This should be used to try to shed more bad systems, but this is always much harder to do in practice.
ALD has a large cc surplus to expand with, but with profitable systems drying up, expansions in Federation space are a possibility, with Mbutsi already getting Hudsons "less astute" players attention.
With ALD probably falling into Turmoil, 5th (where she just was when in Turmoil) is a possibility, but its hard to see her ranked better than 3rd no matter what happens this week.
Winters, 65%
The Shadow President dropped down one position to 4th with ALD climbing out of Turmoil.
Undermining on Winters was at its lowest level for 6 weeks, and fortification was also reduced to match what was needed.
ALD has been publicly announced as Winters undermining target.
The system of Amuzgo was prepared last cycle, which contests 11 of ALDs systems, and will be under heavy opposition from ALD.
It is unclear if more systems will be prepared in Imperial territory, but this is a trend that will probably be followed.
Aisling, 58%
The Peoples Princess entered Turmoil with the blessing of some of her players, to avoid a loss making expansion, and give another chance to lose loss making systems.
The two systems in Turmoil are loss making, so staying in Turmoil will probably be the plan, but this has left them open to being undermined in the past, and with the 5th column allegations (perhaps unfounded) continually being placed at Aislings door, there is no shortage of enemies willing to do just this.
If Aisling does lose 2 systems at the end of the week, she may drop out of the top 5, but with Sirius and Torval also in Turmoil, this is unlikely.
There are no official undermining targets for Aisling, but the Pirate War is always listed on their reddit, and Antal and Sirius are possibilities, along with the Federation.
Sirius, 48%
The CEO swaps ranking with Torval although they both entered Turmoil.
It was the start of some public drama in Ship Discount Land (what I might call playing PP) where the system of Dheneb was engaged in a preparation war between Sirius, Patreus and Antal.
This system was next to the just lost Patreus Control System of 47 Ceti, in an area of space I called the 47 Ceti Oasis Zone (due to the green cc income dots appearing in the desert of available systems)
Sirius was able to win the preparation war and now has this system available for expansion.
Unfortunately Sirius was undermined into Turmoil, with 3 very profitable systems ready to revolt.
If Sirius fortified out of Turmoil without a loss of systems, he could be above Aisling (and perhaps ALD) in the top 5.
If these 3 systems are lost, its possible he will be in the bottom 3, although this will be temporary.
So who undermined peaceful Sirius?
The raw data tells us nothing, I have only High Octane Speculation.
Its hard to believe it was Antal or Delaine, because of the Piracy mechanic they need to use.
Torval and Mahon are unlikely candidates.
Patreus is the Power with the most to gain, because of the Sirius preparation into what they consider "their" area, but Patreus was probably stretched too thin to actually do it.
This leaves Aisling or ALD (perhaps using the situation with Patreus as an excuse) or Winters or Hudson.
Undermining on Delaine, Hudson and Winters (ALD and Aisling undermining) was down, so this is a possibility.
Undermining on ALD was down (Federation undermining) but undermining on Patreus was somewhat up.
Still a possibility.
Torval, 46%
The Mining Senator went into Turmoil in a similar fashion to Aisling, not due to undermining, but a bad cc economy and less fortification.
Two loss making systems have been selected for revolt, which the players at Torval should be happy with.
With no real undermining, and no announcement of attacking anyone, Torval has certainly taken Antals previous mantel of the galaxys peaceful hippy (that sells lots of slaves at discounted prices)
If these 2 systems are lost, Torval may drop into the bottom 3, perhaps there is a Mining Community Goal on the horizon (no pun intended) for Torval players to spice things up a bit.
But its entirely possible they are the ones responsible for Sirius's and Antal's Turmoil.
Delaine, 39%
The Pirate lord moves back into 8th position, with the only successful expansion of the week.
Patreus was targeted (and is targeted again) for undermining, but he was able to fortify enough with no systems going into Turmoil.
Archons weekly starting cc balance is still a very healthy 911, giving him a large amount of undermining he can absorb.
With 579cc for preparations, it will be another week fighting off the bad systems.
The Imperial High Council has again listed Archon Delaine as their only target, this week they are focusing on undermining, so an increase from the extremely low undermining amounts of last week are expected.
Patreus, 37%
The Senator had a very eventful week, with mixed results, but his players will probably be happy with the outcome.
Delaine, Hudson and Winters all publicly targeted Patreus for undermining.
Antal had successfully prepared the system of Kenna the week before, which was from the area around the lost Patreus Control System of Utgaroar (the Utgaroar Oasis Zone), and began expansion.
Sirius began a prep war with Patreus as mentioned above, for Dheneb.
So Patreus found himself getting hit from all sides.
Antal won the expansion at Kenna, but went into Turmoil, so actually lost.
Sirius won the preparation race, but Patreus was able to fortify enough to counteract the increase in undermining he faced.
With only a cc balance of 36 he will be unable to prepare any systems, which isn't good if there is a mysterious collapse mechanic but if there isn't, not expanding seems the best policy right now when there are no profitable systems left in the galaxy.
It possible that Patreus could move up to 6th position, depending on what happens with Torval and Sirius, but its unlikely he will be in the top 5 at the end of the week.
Antal, 32%
The Utopians had an extremely eventful week, overall from a PP perspective it was a very bad week, but from a interesting and "fun" perspective, it was probably Antals best week so far.
Accusation of back stabbing were leveled at them from Patreus over their "stealth" preparing of "their" system.
Certain Aisling players rallied to help Patreus in their conflict with Antal.
Another system Patreus view as "theirs" was prepared, which Sirius won.
3 more preparations were made on the Patreus border, and the systems of Medzistha and Contie were successful and are currently available for expansion.
The Antal guys didn't stop there in their coming out party.
The system with the moving Jaques station was expanded, too bad we don't find out if they would have had a moving control system.
And the permit system of Luyten 347-14 in the middle of the federation was expanded.
5 expansion in total were pursued, with 3 winning which lead to Antal having the 4th most total merits last cycle.
But in the middle of all this expansion, Antal forgot about fortification and someone (I doubt it was Patreus even though he benefited the most) undermined him into Turmoil, making all the expansion effort waste.
The battle for Kenna ended on 143783 vs 117870, or 2026% vs 1323%
Hopefully Antals players continue their more aggressive stance, and don't get gun shy after being put into Turmoil.
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