Raw Data Here
I'll link Martin Schou's Analysis when its complete.
Cycle 26
Cycle 25
Cycle 24
Cycle 23
Cycle 22
Raw data has now been released.
Total Merits
ALD and Hudson have no expansions again, but they take out the top 2 spots, and Aisling is comfortable in number 3.
Antal and Delaine have a large part of their total merits in their combat expansions, and Torval and Patreus are in the last 2 position, both unable to earn merits in either preparation or expansion, only fortification.
Sirius, Winters and Mahon all have a very similar amount of total activity.
Effective Merits
The order on the effective chart is very similar to the total chart. Antal and Delaine move down to the bottom 2 positions after failing their expansions, where most of there total merits were.
Sirius, Winters, Patreus, Mahon and Torval all have a much better efficiency rate over ALD, Hudson and Aisling, so although those 3 are still in the top 3 spots, the others are much closer when the wasted merits are discarded.
Mahon, Aisling and Sirius all won some expansions, but since Aisling and Sirius ended up in Turmoil, Mahon was the only Power to expand successfully (to 3 out of 4 possible)
Opposition
Winters takes out the top spot, but Mahon was the most undermined, and Sirius is also very high, but these 2 powers have no public enemies admitting to their undermining.
ALD received above average undermining, probably due to her own players defecting to Sirius and attempting to undermine her low income systems.
Antal, Patreus, Torval and Aisling had their normal low levels of undermining, but Antal had a very large amount of opposition to his expansions.
Delaine takes out the most opposed on the effective chart, but this is dominated by his expansion that he wanted to fail.
Hudson slips down to position 6, but this is partly due to a decreased amount of undermining on him, and an increased amount of undermining on Sirius.
Weekly Charts
The fortification charts show the big increase in fortification that Sirius did, to attempt to pull them out of Turmoil.
Winters also had a large increase in fortification over last week, and so did Antal.
The undermining chart shows all powers except Antal and Patreus have an increase to their undermining from the previous week.
ALD, Sirius and Winters had large increases in effective undermining, and Mahon had a large increase in their total undermining level.
And here's a new chart showing the trends of undermining in a different way:
Effective Undermining against Winters, Mahon and Patreus has been on the rise, while Effective Undermining on Delaine, Hudson and Torval has been declining.
Sirius stands out as having an abnormally higher amount of undermining last week.
Commentary and Speculation
Here is a chart with the scores from the past 4 weeks.
And the same information showing when each power expanded, hit Turmoil, or actually lost systems.
The scores are scaled each week so there is an average of 55%, so the scores move relative to what all the other Powers have done that week.
It seems that expanding improves your score for that week over what it would normally be, and losing systems decreases your score under what it would normally be.
Turmoil may decrease your score, but not by much.
A higher percentage of expansions completed may also improve their score by much more, and being the only power to be in Turmoil, or to lose systems may decrease your score by much more.
You can see Aisling had a score of 52%, then expanded, and the score went up, hit Turmoil and the score went down, and lost a system and the score went down even more.
With Delaine, he got an expansion and went up to 35%, but then got 100% of all the expansions and went further up to 39%, no expansion dropped him down to 34%
Comparing ALD and Hudson, ALD was on 87%, hit Turmoil and fell down to 57%, but Hudson was on 84%, hit Turmoil and only went down to 71%.
ALD moved up to 87% because she got 6 expansions, so the 87% was inflated more than Hudsons 84%, but its still a large drop that's hard to explain.
Mahon moves up from 77% last week, to 91% this week, by getting 100% of the expansions.
Sirius and Torval seem to move logically, up with expansions, down with no expansion, down with Turmoil, further down when losing systems.
Patreus is the main anomaly.
He lost one system and went down to 24%, then lost another system, but climbed up to 33%. He was the only Power in Turmoil when dropping down to 24% so this may be viewed as being worse, just as getting 100% of the expansions is better.
Obviously there is more to the score than the number of Control Systems (the underlying score) and the weekly increase or decrease in systems, but there is a clear pattern for most of the powers.
Mahon 91%
The Prime Minister moved back into first place again, after securing 3 new Control Systems, which was 100% of all the successful expansions from all Powers last cycle.
With only 1 expansion (a system Antal was heavily opposed in 2 cycles ago) this week, and Hudson having 3, whoever gets more expansions may be ranked first at the end of the cycle.
ALD has even more expansions at 6, so its possible she will move past Mahon into 1st, should they all succeed.
Baring Turmoil, it is again very difficult to see Mahon ranked as low as 4th.
Hudson 78%
The President moved down one position to 2nd, after Mahon secured 3 new systems, and Hudons had 0 expansions.
2 cycles ago HIP 44811 was the scene of the highest cumulative expansion and opposition merits at one system so far. Its back on again this week, last time Hudson's expansion was defeated, but not by a very large percentage.
Things are stacked against ALD this time, and it will be more likely to be a Hudson victory.
If Hudson can secure his 3 expansions, he will probably be ranked 1st again, but ALD and the rest of the Empire may target Hudson for Turmoil, to ensure his expansion fails.
ALD 75%
The Emperor avoided Turmoil last cycle, although being able to lose some loss making systems is still high on her players priorities.
This week will be a very busy one.
She has 2 "weaponised" expansions inside Winters territory, along with 4 other expansions. These expansions are not profitable, but its likely they will all "win".
Hudson, Winters and Delaine all have one expansion each in ALD territory, which will make it much more difficult to oppose the Hudson expansion this time.
With loss making expansions, its unlikely anyone will want to put ALD into Turmoil, so 3rd is probably as low as she should be ranked. If all 6 expansions win, its possible the Emperor will be back in 1st position at the end of the cycle.
Winters 70%
The Shadow President now has a sizable gap between herself in 4th and Aisling in 5th position.
Most of this is due to Aisling losing 2 systems, but baring Turmoil, 4th is where Winters will safely be placed at the end of the week.
ALD has 2 expansions inside Winters territory, and they will probably be expanded, but it is unclear if Winters will just take the CC hit, knowing it hurts ALD much worse because of her negative starting CC balance, or try to push ALD into Turmoil.
No undermining target has been made public yet, perhaps all efforts will be spend on expanding and opposing expansions.
Aisling 53%
The Peoples Princess lost 2 systems to Turmoil, but these were loss making systems, and her starting CC balance is now better off than it was, but is still the worst in PP.
She remains in Turmoil, with the profitable system of Duryampas on the chopping block this week.
Losing this system will undo the good work completed last week, so the primary focus will probably be on fortifying out of Turmoil.
With the Federation probably not wanting to push ALD into Turmoil, this makes Aisling a likely target.
Should Aisling lose her system and remain in Turmoil, she may drop down to 7th, if she fortifies out of Turmoil, 5th seems likely.
Sirius 42%
The CEO won the expansion at Dheneb, which was in the area previously Controlled by Patreus, but was kept in Turmoil, so the expansion failed.
3 profitable systems were also lost to Turmoil, and 3 more are currently rebelling.
It will be more difficult to fortify out of Turmoil this cycle, because of the loss of the income from these 3 profitable systems.
Sirius is currently on 57 Control Systems, but once he goes under 55, his Overhead costs will go down by a large margin, and things may equalize.
Noone has again taken responsibility of attacking Sirius, and until this happens, its very difficult for Sirius to strike back at their aggressor.
Being in Turmoil, Sirius is unable to prepare their lost systems, and can only look on and do nothing to whoever decides to prepare them this week.
With the loss of 3 more systems Sirius may fall into the bottom 3, if he can fortify out of Turmoil, 5th is a possibility.
Patreus 40%
The Senator came under heavy attack again, and although wasn't quite able to avoid Turmoil, his standing improved from 9th to 7th.
Sirius was kept in Turmoil, so the area previously occupied by Patreus in 47 Ceti is still available, but Patrues is again unable to make any preparations this week.
Archon Delaine is expanding the system of Kenna, which is in another area that once belonged to Patreus, and stopping this expansion will be high on their priorities.
The profitable system of Contiku is the one selected for Turmoil, and it is unlikely they will want to lose this system.
Should Patreus fortify out of Turmoil, he may be as high as 5th, but if the system of Contiku is lost he may tumble back down to 10th position.
Torval 38%
The Senator from Synteini lost 2 loss making systems to Turmoil, and although moved down to 8th position, her players should be happy with the progress of last week.
Torvals starting CC balance moves from -407 to -92, still negative, but a massive improvement.
To put this into context, that's 12 systems with an upkeep of 25cc each that don't need to be fortified every week.
This should make a huge difference to the fortification efforts needed by her players.
Losing more loss making systems should be a priority, but this is much easier said than done.
Torval could move into 5th position, depending on what happens to Aisling, Sirius and Patreus, but shouldn't fall into the bottom 2.
Delaine 34%
The Pirate Lord moves down one position to 9th, after failing his one expansion.
This was purposely failed, because it would have led to a weekly loss of 90cc for this one system.
Patreus was successfully put back into Turmoil, and the system of LTT 874 was prepared, which is 15LY from the Imperial Capital of Achenar.
Heavy opposition is expected in LTT 874, and Patreus will again be targeted for undermining.
The system of Kenna is also on the expansion list, which was previously in Patreus controlled space.
With 4 expansions this week, it will be possible to move past Patreus, but Torval and Sirius will probably only be moved past if they are put into Turmoil.
Antal 29%
The Utopian fortified himself out of Turmoil and has 819cc available for preparation.
So far, the system Sirius should have expanded, Dheneb, and the highly profitable system of NLTT 6655, which was just in Sirius space last cycle, have been targeted for preparation.
Gliese 1268, the system with the moving Jaque station, has also been targeted again. It seems this station doesn't move too often.
With no expansions this cycle, Antal will probably be ranked 10th, but could move up in the ranks if others fall to Turmoil.
I'll link Martin Schou's Analysis when its complete.
Cycle 26
Cycle 25
Cycle 24
Cycle 23
Cycle 22
Raw data has now been released.
Total Merits
ALD and Hudson have no expansions again, but they take out the top 2 spots, and Aisling is comfortable in number 3.
Antal and Delaine have a large part of their total merits in their combat expansions, and Torval and Patreus are in the last 2 position, both unable to earn merits in either preparation or expansion, only fortification.
Sirius, Winters and Mahon all have a very similar amount of total activity.
Effective Merits
The order on the effective chart is very similar to the total chart. Antal and Delaine move down to the bottom 2 positions after failing their expansions, where most of there total merits were.
Sirius, Winters, Patreus, Mahon and Torval all have a much better efficiency rate over ALD, Hudson and Aisling, so although those 3 are still in the top 3 spots, the others are much closer when the wasted merits are discarded.
Mahon, Aisling and Sirius all won some expansions, but since Aisling and Sirius ended up in Turmoil, Mahon was the only Power to expand successfully (to 3 out of 4 possible)
Opposition
Winters takes out the top spot, but Mahon was the most undermined, and Sirius is also very high, but these 2 powers have no public enemies admitting to their undermining.
ALD received above average undermining, probably due to her own players defecting to Sirius and attempting to undermine her low income systems.
Antal, Patreus, Torval and Aisling had their normal low levels of undermining, but Antal had a very large amount of opposition to his expansions.
Delaine takes out the most opposed on the effective chart, but this is dominated by his expansion that he wanted to fail.
Hudson slips down to position 6, but this is partly due to a decreased amount of undermining on him, and an increased amount of undermining on Sirius.
Weekly Charts
The fortification charts show the big increase in fortification that Sirius did, to attempt to pull them out of Turmoil.
Winters also had a large increase in fortification over last week, and so did Antal.
The undermining chart shows all powers except Antal and Patreus have an increase to their undermining from the previous week.
ALD, Sirius and Winters had large increases in effective undermining, and Mahon had a large increase in their total undermining level.
And here's a new chart showing the trends of undermining in a different way:
Effective Undermining against Winters, Mahon and Patreus has been on the rise, while Effective Undermining on Delaine, Hudson and Torval has been declining.
Sirius stands out as having an abnormally higher amount of undermining last week.
Commentary and Speculation
Here is a chart with the scores from the past 4 weeks.
And the same information showing when each power expanded, hit Turmoil, or actually lost systems.
The scores are scaled each week so there is an average of 55%, so the scores move relative to what all the other Powers have done that week.
It seems that expanding improves your score for that week over what it would normally be, and losing systems decreases your score under what it would normally be.
Turmoil may decrease your score, but not by much.
A higher percentage of expansions completed may also improve their score by much more, and being the only power to be in Turmoil, or to lose systems may decrease your score by much more.
You can see Aisling had a score of 52%, then expanded, and the score went up, hit Turmoil and the score went down, and lost a system and the score went down even more.
With Delaine, he got an expansion and went up to 35%, but then got 100% of all the expansions and went further up to 39%, no expansion dropped him down to 34%
Comparing ALD and Hudson, ALD was on 87%, hit Turmoil and fell down to 57%, but Hudson was on 84%, hit Turmoil and only went down to 71%.
ALD moved up to 87% because she got 6 expansions, so the 87% was inflated more than Hudsons 84%, but its still a large drop that's hard to explain.
Mahon moves up from 77% last week, to 91% this week, by getting 100% of the expansions.
Sirius and Torval seem to move logically, up with expansions, down with no expansion, down with Turmoil, further down when losing systems.
Patreus is the main anomaly.
He lost one system and went down to 24%, then lost another system, but climbed up to 33%. He was the only Power in Turmoil when dropping down to 24% so this may be viewed as being worse, just as getting 100% of the expansions is better.
Obviously there is more to the score than the number of Control Systems (the underlying score) and the weekly increase or decrease in systems, but there is a clear pattern for most of the powers.
Mahon 91%
The Prime Minister moved back into first place again, after securing 3 new Control Systems, which was 100% of all the successful expansions from all Powers last cycle.
With only 1 expansion (a system Antal was heavily opposed in 2 cycles ago) this week, and Hudson having 3, whoever gets more expansions may be ranked first at the end of the cycle.
ALD has even more expansions at 6, so its possible she will move past Mahon into 1st, should they all succeed.
Baring Turmoil, it is again very difficult to see Mahon ranked as low as 4th.
Hudson 78%
The President moved down one position to 2nd, after Mahon secured 3 new systems, and Hudons had 0 expansions.
2 cycles ago HIP 44811 was the scene of the highest cumulative expansion and opposition merits at one system so far. Its back on again this week, last time Hudson's expansion was defeated, but not by a very large percentage.
Things are stacked against ALD this time, and it will be more likely to be a Hudson victory.
If Hudson can secure his 3 expansions, he will probably be ranked 1st again, but ALD and the rest of the Empire may target Hudson for Turmoil, to ensure his expansion fails.
ALD 75%
The Emperor avoided Turmoil last cycle, although being able to lose some loss making systems is still high on her players priorities.
This week will be a very busy one.
She has 2 "weaponised" expansions inside Winters territory, along with 4 other expansions. These expansions are not profitable, but its likely they will all "win".
Hudson, Winters and Delaine all have one expansion each in ALD territory, which will make it much more difficult to oppose the Hudson expansion this time.
With loss making expansions, its unlikely anyone will want to put ALD into Turmoil, so 3rd is probably as low as she should be ranked. If all 6 expansions win, its possible the Emperor will be back in 1st position at the end of the cycle.
Winters 70%
The Shadow President now has a sizable gap between herself in 4th and Aisling in 5th position.
Most of this is due to Aisling losing 2 systems, but baring Turmoil, 4th is where Winters will safely be placed at the end of the week.
ALD has 2 expansions inside Winters territory, and they will probably be expanded, but it is unclear if Winters will just take the CC hit, knowing it hurts ALD much worse because of her negative starting CC balance, or try to push ALD into Turmoil.
No undermining target has been made public yet, perhaps all efforts will be spend on expanding and opposing expansions.
Aisling 53%
The Peoples Princess lost 2 systems to Turmoil, but these were loss making systems, and her starting CC balance is now better off than it was, but is still the worst in PP.
She remains in Turmoil, with the profitable system of Duryampas on the chopping block this week.
Losing this system will undo the good work completed last week, so the primary focus will probably be on fortifying out of Turmoil.
With the Federation probably not wanting to push ALD into Turmoil, this makes Aisling a likely target.
Should Aisling lose her system and remain in Turmoil, she may drop down to 7th, if she fortifies out of Turmoil, 5th seems likely.
Sirius 42%
The CEO won the expansion at Dheneb, which was in the area previously Controlled by Patreus, but was kept in Turmoil, so the expansion failed.
3 profitable systems were also lost to Turmoil, and 3 more are currently rebelling.
It will be more difficult to fortify out of Turmoil this cycle, because of the loss of the income from these 3 profitable systems.
Sirius is currently on 57 Control Systems, but once he goes under 55, his Overhead costs will go down by a large margin, and things may equalize.
Noone has again taken responsibility of attacking Sirius, and until this happens, its very difficult for Sirius to strike back at their aggressor.
Being in Turmoil, Sirius is unable to prepare their lost systems, and can only look on and do nothing to whoever decides to prepare them this week.
With the loss of 3 more systems Sirius may fall into the bottom 3, if he can fortify out of Turmoil, 5th is a possibility.
Patreus 40%
The Senator came under heavy attack again, and although wasn't quite able to avoid Turmoil, his standing improved from 9th to 7th.
Sirius was kept in Turmoil, so the area previously occupied by Patreus in 47 Ceti is still available, but Patrues is again unable to make any preparations this week.
Archon Delaine is expanding the system of Kenna, which is in another area that once belonged to Patreus, and stopping this expansion will be high on their priorities.
The profitable system of Contiku is the one selected for Turmoil, and it is unlikely they will want to lose this system.
Should Patreus fortify out of Turmoil, he may be as high as 5th, but if the system of Contiku is lost he may tumble back down to 10th position.
Torval 38%
The Senator from Synteini lost 2 loss making systems to Turmoil, and although moved down to 8th position, her players should be happy with the progress of last week.
Torvals starting CC balance moves from -407 to -92, still negative, but a massive improvement.
To put this into context, that's 12 systems with an upkeep of 25cc each that don't need to be fortified every week.
This should make a huge difference to the fortification efforts needed by her players.
Losing more loss making systems should be a priority, but this is much easier said than done.
Torval could move into 5th position, depending on what happens to Aisling, Sirius and Patreus, but shouldn't fall into the bottom 2.
Delaine 34%
The Pirate Lord moves down one position to 9th, after failing his one expansion.
This was purposely failed, because it would have led to a weekly loss of 90cc for this one system.
Patreus was successfully put back into Turmoil, and the system of LTT 874 was prepared, which is 15LY from the Imperial Capital of Achenar.
Heavy opposition is expected in LTT 874, and Patreus will again be targeted for undermining.
The system of Kenna is also on the expansion list, which was previously in Patreus controlled space.
With 4 expansions this week, it will be possible to move past Patreus, but Torval and Sirius will probably only be moved past if they are put into Turmoil.
Antal 29%
The Utopian fortified himself out of Turmoil and has 819cc available for preparation.
So far, the system Sirius should have expanded, Dheneb, and the highly profitable system of NLTT 6655, which was just in Sirius space last cycle, have been targeted for preparation.
Gliese 1268, the system with the moving Jaque station, has also been targeted again. It seems this station doesn't move too often.
With no expansions this cycle, Antal will probably be ranked 10th, but could move up in the ranks if others fall to Turmoil.
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