Cycle 43 Commentary
Raw data is out again, its time to start the Cycle 44 Mahon Car Crash Special
Raw Data Tables
Everyone likes rubbernecking at a good car crash, and anyone reading this is probably already looking at this:
No, thats not some strange formatting, the negative symbol wont fit on the same line (sort out displaying 5 characters FDev)
So above are the 2 opposition tables from the raw data, and it doesn't look like that much happened to Mahon.
The raw data was probably compiled in the last 15-30 mins, so all the merits dropped after that aren't included, the raw data actually says Mahon had 12 systems undermined, the in game UI says 42.
Vectron was kind enough to give me the real numbers for Mahon, and while I was at it I updated the Delaine numbers too since I had them.
Known Merits
ALD has no expansions, so Hudson was back to dominating the total merits.
Aisling was second and ALD third for total merits, with both doing a fair amount of merits in preparations.
Mahon moved up to 3rd most merits, with a massive amount put into his preparations, over 300000, no record though.
Winters is a fair bit behinf Mahon in 5th position, and the total merits steadily decrease down to Delaine with 10th most.
On the Effective chart, Aisling is number 1, with ALD in the number 2 position.
Mahon moves up to having done the 3rd most effective merits, and Hudson moves out of the top three for the first time in a long time, with all his expansion merits being waste, due to him still being in Turmoil.
Torval, Winters and Patreus did a fair amount of effective merits in preparations, with Patreus nearly doing as many preparation merits as fortification merits.
Aisling and Delaine were the only 2 powers to win an expansion, and Sirius failed his expansion even though he put in more merits than the opposition, because he didn't even get to the 100% trigger.
Opposition
Above is the money shot, you can compare the Mahon "bars" with the raw data "bars" in the top chart.
You can see Mahon got slightly less total opposition than Hudson, but much more in just undermining.
Over 1 million merits of total undermining on Mahon isn't unusual though.
Delaine was in 3rd position and the total merits decrease down to Antal in 10th position.
Patreus, Hudson and Winters got a large amount of opposition to their expansions, and all of them ended up failing.
On the effective chart you can see the damage done to Mahon.
Over 250000 merits were dropped after the raw data was compiled, probably the last 15 minuets.
250000 effective undermining merits is enough to force every power into doing a massive amount of fortification to avoid turmoil, if it was dropped throughout the week.
Delaine got what I would normally describe as a very high amount of effective undermining, over 300000, but this week it doesn't really look that bad.
Hudson got a high amount of effective undermining, about the same amount as was dropped on Mahon at the end.
ALD, Winters and Patreus got a low to medium amount of effective opposition, with everyone else basically unopposed.
Patreus, Winters and Aisling had a high amount of effective opposition to their expansions, but the opposition to Aisling was from a SCRAP request, so not real opposition from an enemy.
This Week in Slavery with Archon Delaine
Only 2 expansions this week.
Aisling took back control of the HIP 105391 bubble, which has around 100 million Imperial Citizens, all of which have been freed from the threat of being made into Imperial Slaves.
Delaine expanded into Deveta Baru, an Independent Confederacy with a population of 7 million, all of which could now get made into Slaves, or Imperial Slaves.
A positive week for eradicating Slavery from the galaxy.
Score
This was my prediction for the Scores from lasts weeks post:
This assumed Hudson and Antal would be out of Turmoil, and used who I though would win expansions.
Here is what the same formula says using what actually happened last week:
The formula is still very accurate for 6 of the powers, but Sirius and Winters are off by quite a bit, like Torvals score was for the previous week.
There is still obviously something missing, but it is fairly accurate.
Here is my prediction for the end of this week:
This is a worse case scenario for Mahon, with him losing 21 systems to Turmoil, but getting out of Turmoil.
Commentary and Speculation
Edmund Mahon 81
The Alliance Prime Minister is still in the number 1 position, with a large lead over number 2.
This again highlights what I believe is a flawed way the scores are calculated, which doesn't really punish a power for going into Turmoil.
As mentioned above Mahon came under a massive undermining attack, with 250k merits being dropped in what must be the biggest snipe in PP history.
In week 5 ALD went into Turmoil with all of her control systems turmoilling, this was changed and patched, so discounting that, this is by far the worst Turmoil that has hit a power.
-5899cc looks like a bad place to be in (and it is) but thats what Mahon ended last week on, not what he starts this week on.
According to Galnet he started this week on -1332 (which isn't exactly correct) which isn't really that much worse than Aislings -798
I'm still not 100% sure what will happen to him, either he will lose 21 systems, and have the second most systems in the Galaxy (1 less than Hudson), or lose 1 or a few systems and still be number 1.
His players will probably have to fortify 100% of his systems, and any of them that are reading this should probably get back to it.
He needs 548856 merits to fortify everything (around 5.5 billion cr) and it will take 1187580 merits to undermine all 97 of his systems.
Mahon may need to kill 5013 enemy players in Gateway to save the 20cc upkeep from there.
Although this would be viewed as a horrible event from the perspectives of most Mahon pledgers, I think its positive for PP as a whole, this will open up a changing of conflicts. Will Mahon retaliate, will he form an Alliance with Imperial Powers?
Now blood is in the water, which of the 9 powers will try to carve out a piece of Mahon?
Ironically though, Aisling is the power most in need of high income systems, but is the furthest away from the Alliance, so will have a difficult time getting her fair share at the Mahon Buffet.
In much overlooked news Mahon players were able to push a very large amount of merits onto their preparation list to push out 2 unwanted systems.
You can see the merits dumped into the 3 systems they wanted, particularly what happened with Kaal right at the end.
Mahon could be anywhere at the end of the week, but probably not lower than 4th.
His score should go back to 1st / 2nd afterwards, even if he loses 21 systems.
Arissa Lavigny-Duval 68
Not much happened to the Emperor last cycle, from the outside.
She had no expansions, and had very little undermining, but was probably responsible for a large amount of the undermining done on Hudson.
This week she has 3 expansions, all of which will easily win. This will put her on 69 systems, equal third most with Winters.
ALD has publicly listed both Winters expansions as their priority target, nothing is publicly mentioned about attacking Mahon.
ALD will probably be ranked under Hudson at the end of the week, this may be 2nd or 3rd, depending on what happens with Mahon.
Zachary Hudson 66
The President dropped down to 3rd after being kept in Turmoil, which meant he failed a number of expansions his players didn't want, but also lost two profitable systems, and another one is now in Turmoil.
Hudson has targeted Mahon for undermining and with no expansions, may be able to deliver a record number of effective undermining to an enemy power.
Unless ALD attacks Mahon (or Winters), Hudson will probably come under heavy attack, to try to keep him in Turmoil for even longer.
The Hudson players should be able to fortify out of it, and will again probably have a massive amount of CC to prepare with, and prepare a number of bad systems next week.
Hudson may be back in the 1st position, or could drop to 4th if he stays in Turmoil.
Felicia Winters 66
The Shadow President dropped down to 4th, although its really equal 3rd with Hudson, its unclear if her players get the top 3 bonus when you are equal 3rd.
This week she has also listed Mahon as their primary undermining target, and if the undermining Winters and Hudson have done on ALD is anything to go by, Mahon will have most or all of his systems undermined by the end of the cycle.
Winters was able to beat ALD in a prep war for one of her current expansions, and both of her expansions have been targeted by ALD this week.
With their announced attack on Mahon, its likely they will be too busy to try to win either expansion.
With ALD certain to win all 3 of her expansions, Winters and ALD will both be on 69 Control Systems, which means Winters will be in 3rd or 4th position, depending on what happens to Mahon.
Aisling Duval 61
The Peoples Princess managed to win one expansion and lose a low income expansion.
Aisling now has 58 systems again, the same as Sirius, and one more than Torval.
Torvals expansion that contested 8 systems with Aislings current expansion was also successfully opposed, and Aislings expansions will now be a net gain to her CC economy if she wins both.
With Aisling being so far from Mahon, it's very unlikely her players will be able to get any benefit from him losing systems, so probably wont participate in undermining him.
Last cycle 3 bad systems were opposed with piracy, probably a controlled turmoil attempt, but this was a strange time for it while she had an expansion she wanted to win.
At some point Aisling will need to try to organise losing more of her lower income systems, but until this happens, her players will need to continue their very high levels of fortification.
With Aisling being so close to Torval and Sirius, she could be 5th to 7th, but it's unlikely Mahon will drop so low she could rise to 4th.
Li Yong-Rui 59
The Sirius CEO dropped down to 6th position, with Aisling gaining one more expansion and now being on an equal number of systems with him.
There is no public news yet that Sirius players will join in on attacking Mahon, but this would be something interesting for their players to do.
Sirius is in a fairly good position to be able to get any systems that Mahon might lose, only Winters and Hudson are closer to the Alliance systems.
Last week Sirius failed his expansion because he didn't get to the 100% trigger, this week he has one expansion, and losing this will certainly keep Aisling ranked above him.
With one more system than Torval, its likely he will be 6th at the end of the week, but Torval could move above him.
Zemina Torval 44
Torval had a fairly quite week, her players did a moderate amount of fortifying, but received very little undermining.
This week Torval has 2 expansions, one of which contests 3 federal systems.
Although its likely this expansion will fail, both federal powers may be too busy undermining Mahon to oppose it enough.
Torval continued to get undermining from piracy last week, but none of the systems got to the undermining trigger, and the amount was drastically reduced from the week before.
Torval only expansion was opposed by the piracy mechanic, which kept her on the 7th most number of Control Systems.
She will likely be 7th again next week, but could climb back up to 5th.
Denton Patreus 41
The Admiral dropped down one position back to 8th.
He had 2 weaponised expansions in federation space, both of which faced a large amount of opposition.
He has 2 more expansions this week, one of which he was able to out prep Delaine for.
The other expansion contests 1 system and has been listed for their players to not expand.
Patreus is one of the furthest powers from Mahon, so his players will probably not participate in attacking Mahon this week.
Patreus will probably still be in 8th position at the end of the week, but its possible Antal will move above him.
Archon Delaine 33
The Pirate Lord came under a large undermining snipe attack last week, but nothing compared to what happened to Mahon.
He was able to avoid Turmoil, but who to retaliate against for all the Mahon players undermining him is still a problem.
Patreus players also were able to snipe one of his preparations, which will certainly lead to retribution.
Delaine is a fair distance from Mahon, but with no shortage of enemies, one more may not make that much more of a difference.
No undermining targets have been publicly listed yet.
Pranav Antal 31
The Utopian was able to fortify out of turmoil, and is now returning back to normal again, after his 2nd successful controlled turmoil.
Far too much fortifying was done, but his players probably thought better safe than sorry, and he now has a massive 1035cc, enough for 7 or more systems.
With even the number of medium income system drying up anywhere near him, Mahon may now look like a juicy morsel for the Utopians to start feasting upon.
If past behavior is anything to go on, the Utopians wont openly undermine Mahon, but if any systems are lost to Turmoil, Antal will be in there like a thief in the night.
With Turmoil ending it is likely Antal will be 9th next week, but he may rise up to 8th.
Raw data is out again, its time to start the Cycle 44 Mahon Car Crash Special
Raw Data Tables
Everyone likes rubbernecking at a good car crash, and anyone reading this is probably already looking at this:
No, thats not some strange formatting, the negative symbol wont fit on the same line (sort out displaying 5 characters FDev)
So above are the 2 opposition tables from the raw data, and it doesn't look like that much happened to Mahon.
The raw data was probably compiled in the last 15-30 mins, so all the merits dropped after that aren't included, the raw data actually says Mahon had 12 systems undermined, the in game UI says 42.
Vectron was kind enough to give me the real numbers for Mahon, and while I was at it I updated the Delaine numbers too since I had them.
Known Merits
ALD has no expansions, so Hudson was back to dominating the total merits.
Aisling was second and ALD third for total merits, with both doing a fair amount of merits in preparations.
Mahon moved up to 3rd most merits, with a massive amount put into his preparations, over 300000, no record though.
Winters is a fair bit behinf Mahon in 5th position, and the total merits steadily decrease down to Delaine with 10th most.
On the Effective chart, Aisling is number 1, with ALD in the number 2 position.
Mahon moves up to having done the 3rd most effective merits, and Hudson moves out of the top three for the first time in a long time, with all his expansion merits being waste, due to him still being in Turmoil.
Torval, Winters and Patreus did a fair amount of effective merits in preparations, with Patreus nearly doing as many preparation merits as fortification merits.
Aisling and Delaine were the only 2 powers to win an expansion, and Sirius failed his expansion even though he put in more merits than the opposition, because he didn't even get to the 100% trigger.
Opposition
Above is the money shot, you can compare the Mahon "bars" with the raw data "bars" in the top chart.
You can see Mahon got slightly less total opposition than Hudson, but much more in just undermining.
Over 1 million merits of total undermining on Mahon isn't unusual though.
Delaine was in 3rd position and the total merits decrease down to Antal in 10th position.
Patreus, Hudson and Winters got a large amount of opposition to their expansions, and all of them ended up failing.
On the effective chart you can see the damage done to Mahon.
Over 250000 merits were dropped after the raw data was compiled, probably the last 15 minuets.
250000 effective undermining merits is enough to force every power into doing a massive amount of fortification to avoid turmoil, if it was dropped throughout the week.
Delaine got what I would normally describe as a very high amount of effective undermining, over 300000, but this week it doesn't really look that bad.
Hudson got a high amount of effective undermining, about the same amount as was dropped on Mahon at the end.
ALD, Winters and Patreus got a low to medium amount of effective opposition, with everyone else basically unopposed.
Patreus, Winters and Aisling had a high amount of effective opposition to their expansions, but the opposition to Aisling was from a SCRAP request, so not real opposition from an enemy.
This Week in Slavery with Archon Delaine
Only 2 expansions this week.
Aisling took back control of the HIP 105391 bubble, which has around 100 million Imperial Citizens, all of which have been freed from the threat of being made into Imperial Slaves.
Delaine expanded into Deveta Baru, an Independent Confederacy with a population of 7 million, all of which could now get made into Slaves, or Imperial Slaves.
A positive week for eradicating Slavery from the galaxy.
Score
This was my prediction for the Scores from lasts weeks post:
This assumed Hudson and Antal would be out of Turmoil, and used who I though would win expansions.
Here is what the same formula says using what actually happened last week:
The formula is still very accurate for 6 of the powers, but Sirius and Winters are off by quite a bit, like Torvals score was for the previous week.
There is still obviously something missing, but it is fairly accurate.
Here is my prediction for the end of this week:
This is a worse case scenario for Mahon, with him losing 21 systems to Turmoil, but getting out of Turmoil.
Commentary and Speculation
Edmund Mahon 81
The Alliance Prime Minister is still in the number 1 position, with a large lead over number 2.
This again highlights what I believe is a flawed way the scores are calculated, which doesn't really punish a power for going into Turmoil.
As mentioned above Mahon came under a massive undermining attack, with 250k merits being dropped in what must be the biggest snipe in PP history.
In week 5 ALD went into Turmoil with all of her control systems turmoilling, this was changed and patched, so discounting that, this is by far the worst Turmoil that has hit a power.
-5899cc looks like a bad place to be in (and it is) but thats what Mahon ended last week on, not what he starts this week on.
According to Galnet he started this week on -1332 (which isn't exactly correct) which isn't really that much worse than Aislings -798
I'm still not 100% sure what will happen to him, either he will lose 21 systems, and have the second most systems in the Galaxy (1 less than Hudson), or lose 1 or a few systems and still be number 1.
His players will probably have to fortify 100% of his systems, and any of them that are reading this should probably get back to it.
He needs 548856 merits to fortify everything (around 5.5 billion cr) and it will take 1187580 merits to undermine all 97 of his systems.
Mahon may need to kill 5013 enemy players in Gateway to save the 20cc upkeep from there.
Although this would be viewed as a horrible event from the perspectives of most Mahon pledgers, I think its positive for PP as a whole, this will open up a changing of conflicts. Will Mahon retaliate, will he form an Alliance with Imperial Powers?
Now blood is in the water, which of the 9 powers will try to carve out a piece of Mahon?
Ironically though, Aisling is the power most in need of high income systems, but is the furthest away from the Alliance, so will have a difficult time getting her fair share at the Mahon Buffet.
In much overlooked news Mahon players were able to push a very large amount of merits onto their preparation list to push out 2 unwanted systems.
You can see the merits dumped into the 3 systems they wanted, particularly what happened with Kaal right at the end.
Mahon could be anywhere at the end of the week, but probably not lower than 4th.
His score should go back to 1st / 2nd afterwards, even if he loses 21 systems.
Arissa Lavigny-Duval 68
Not much happened to the Emperor last cycle, from the outside.
She had no expansions, and had very little undermining, but was probably responsible for a large amount of the undermining done on Hudson.
This week she has 3 expansions, all of which will easily win. This will put her on 69 systems, equal third most with Winters.
ALD has publicly listed both Winters expansions as their priority target, nothing is publicly mentioned about attacking Mahon.
ALD will probably be ranked under Hudson at the end of the week, this may be 2nd or 3rd, depending on what happens with Mahon.
Zachary Hudson 66
The President dropped down to 3rd after being kept in Turmoil, which meant he failed a number of expansions his players didn't want, but also lost two profitable systems, and another one is now in Turmoil.
Hudson has targeted Mahon for undermining and with no expansions, may be able to deliver a record number of effective undermining to an enemy power.
Unless ALD attacks Mahon (or Winters), Hudson will probably come under heavy attack, to try to keep him in Turmoil for even longer.
The Hudson players should be able to fortify out of it, and will again probably have a massive amount of CC to prepare with, and prepare a number of bad systems next week.
Hudson may be back in the 1st position, or could drop to 4th if he stays in Turmoil.
Felicia Winters 66
The Shadow President dropped down to 4th, although its really equal 3rd with Hudson, its unclear if her players get the top 3 bonus when you are equal 3rd.
This week she has also listed Mahon as their primary undermining target, and if the undermining Winters and Hudson have done on ALD is anything to go by, Mahon will have most or all of his systems undermined by the end of the cycle.
Winters was able to beat ALD in a prep war for one of her current expansions, and both of her expansions have been targeted by ALD this week.
With their announced attack on Mahon, its likely they will be too busy to try to win either expansion.
With ALD certain to win all 3 of her expansions, Winters and ALD will both be on 69 Control Systems, which means Winters will be in 3rd or 4th position, depending on what happens to Mahon.
Aisling Duval 61
The Peoples Princess managed to win one expansion and lose a low income expansion.
Aisling now has 58 systems again, the same as Sirius, and one more than Torval.
Torvals expansion that contested 8 systems with Aislings current expansion was also successfully opposed, and Aislings expansions will now be a net gain to her CC economy if she wins both.
With Aisling being so far from Mahon, it's very unlikely her players will be able to get any benefit from him losing systems, so probably wont participate in undermining him.
Last cycle 3 bad systems were opposed with piracy, probably a controlled turmoil attempt, but this was a strange time for it while she had an expansion she wanted to win.
At some point Aisling will need to try to organise losing more of her lower income systems, but until this happens, her players will need to continue their very high levels of fortification.
With Aisling being so close to Torval and Sirius, she could be 5th to 7th, but it's unlikely Mahon will drop so low she could rise to 4th.
Li Yong-Rui 59
The Sirius CEO dropped down to 6th position, with Aisling gaining one more expansion and now being on an equal number of systems with him.
There is no public news yet that Sirius players will join in on attacking Mahon, but this would be something interesting for their players to do.
Sirius is in a fairly good position to be able to get any systems that Mahon might lose, only Winters and Hudson are closer to the Alliance systems.
Last week Sirius failed his expansion because he didn't get to the 100% trigger, this week he has one expansion, and losing this will certainly keep Aisling ranked above him.
With one more system than Torval, its likely he will be 6th at the end of the week, but Torval could move above him.
Zemina Torval 44
Torval had a fairly quite week, her players did a moderate amount of fortifying, but received very little undermining.
This week Torval has 2 expansions, one of which contests 3 federal systems.
Although its likely this expansion will fail, both federal powers may be too busy undermining Mahon to oppose it enough.
Torval continued to get undermining from piracy last week, but none of the systems got to the undermining trigger, and the amount was drastically reduced from the week before.
Torval only expansion was opposed by the piracy mechanic, which kept her on the 7th most number of Control Systems.
She will likely be 7th again next week, but could climb back up to 5th.
Denton Patreus 41
The Admiral dropped down one position back to 8th.
He had 2 weaponised expansions in federation space, both of which faced a large amount of opposition.
He has 2 more expansions this week, one of which he was able to out prep Delaine for.
The other expansion contests 1 system and has been listed for their players to not expand.
Patreus is one of the furthest powers from Mahon, so his players will probably not participate in attacking Mahon this week.
Patreus will probably still be in 8th position at the end of the week, but its possible Antal will move above him.
Archon Delaine 33
The Pirate Lord came under a large undermining snipe attack last week, but nothing compared to what happened to Mahon.
He was able to avoid Turmoil, but who to retaliate against for all the Mahon players undermining him is still a problem.
Patreus players also were able to snipe one of his preparations, which will certainly lead to retribution.
Delaine is a fair distance from Mahon, but with no shortage of enemies, one more may not make that much more of a difference.
No undermining targets have been publicly listed yet.
Pranav Antal 31
The Utopian was able to fortify out of turmoil, and is now returning back to normal again, after his 2nd successful controlled turmoil.
Far too much fortifying was done, but his players probably thought better safe than sorry, and he now has a massive 1035cc, enough for 7 or more systems.
With even the number of medium income system drying up anywhere near him, Mahon may now look like a juicy morsel for the Utopians to start feasting upon.
If past behavior is anything to go on, the Utopians wont openly undermine Mahon, but if any systems are lost to Turmoil, Antal will be in there like a thief in the night.
With Turmoil ending it is likely Antal will be 9th next week, but he may rise up to 8th.
Last edited:
