Powerplay Cycle 47 PP Commentary

Raw Data is out again

Link to Cycle 46

Known Merits

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Last week both ALD and Hudson had no expansions, so the total known merits are more balanced across all 10 powers.

The total merits are broken into 2 clear groups of 5 Powers.

On the effective chart you can see Mahon did the most amount of effective merits again, with a fairly even spread in all 3 areas.
Winters was close behind in 2nd, followed by Hudson and ALD in 3rd and 4th.

Aisling dropped down to 5th most effective merits, in part because she was in turmoil, so could not do any preparations.

Winters, Mahon and Delaine all had a large amount of effective merits in their expansions.

Opposition
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On the Total Opposition chart Mahon had a massive 1.4 million in merits.
Opposition to Winters was High with nearly 1 million merits, and Hudson faced a high to medium amount.

Delaine has a medium to low amount of total opposition, and all the other Powers faces a low to very low amount of total opposition.

On the effective chart Hudson had a large amount in just undermining.
Mahon and Winters also faced a high amount of effective opposition

Aisling had a medium amount of undermining, which was all from piracy, with the other Powers having a low to nonexistent amount of effective opposition.


This week in Slavery with Archon Delaine


Delaine won his expansion into San Guan, but its an Anarchy system, so no change to slavery there.

Winters expanded to LTT 5964, which is an Anarchy system where Imperial Slavery has now been banned for its 120000 citizens.

Aisling lost control of 4 systems, which have around 14 Billion Imperial Citizens who are now all again under threat of being made into Imperial Slaves.

Antal expanded to the Imperial system of HIP 10584, and around 10 million Imperial Citizen from that bubble are now free from the threat of Imperial Slavery.

A large increase in Galactic Slavery for the week.

Commentary and Speculation

Edmund Mahon 83
The Prime minister retained his position in the number 1 spot.
He faced a very large amount of opposition to his expansions, but he was able to win his weaponised expansion into the heart of the Federation, Gendalla, which is slightly more than 15 LY from Sol.

Both of the bad expansions he had also won, and this has worsened Mahons starting cc balance to 743, which is nearly half of what he was on a few weeks ago.

This week he has 9 expansions, and enough CC to afford 8 good expansions, so many cr will be spent again by his pledged players.

Mahons players will probably continue to fortify enough to make turmoil impossible, but even if he is put into turmoil, he will again be in the number 1 position.


Felicia Winters 79

Winters moved up one position to 2nd and was able to secure another expansion.
This brings here total number of systems up to 71.

Mahon again has weaponized expansions in federation space, so Winters players will be busy opposing them.

Hudson will probably move back infront of Winters at the end of the week, but Winters shouldn't move further down than 3rd.


Zachary Hudson 69

The federation president moved down one position to 3rd, mainly because he had no expansions to win.

This week he has 2 expansions, which should easily win.
He can also only afford to prep one system, so keeping a good system on the list should be easy as well.

Hudson should move back up to 2nd at the end of the week, but probably can't move up to 1st, no matter what happens.

Arissa Lavigny-Duval 65
The Emperor maintained her 4th position rank at the end of last cycle.
She has no expansions last week, but has 2 this week, and it will take a large amount of coordinated opposition to make one of them fail.

With the recent Federation - Alliance war reducing the undermining ALD has been receiving, a low amount of fortifying is probably all their players will have to do again.

If ALD wins both expansions, and Winters wins none, she might move back into the 3rd position, but 4th again is more likely.

Zemina Torval 55
Torval was able to maintain her position in the top 5 again.

She has 59 control systems, one more than Sirius, and both of them have 2 expansions, so its still neck and neck for the 5th position.

If Torval hits turmoil she may fall down to 8th, but 5th or 6th is more likely, depending on what Sirus does.


Li Yong-Rui 53
Sirius had no expansion last week, but has 2 this week, including the Sirius favorite Chang O.

With Aisling losing systems last cycle, Sirius is now the 6th largest power, and only 1 system off being the equal 5th largest.

If Sirius wins more expansions than Torval, he should move back into the top 5, otherwise he should be 6th at the end of the week.


Denton Patreus 38

Patreus was able to maintain his position out of the bottom 3, although he is equal with Antal and it is unclear if he and Antal are both out of the bottom 3, or both still in it.

Last week he had no expansions, but has one to work on this week.

With Aisling coming out of Turmoil, Patreus will be ranked under her at the end of the week, and with Antal having many more expansions, its likely he will drop down to 9th.

Pranav Antal 38
Antal moved one position up, but hes actually equal with Patreus, so could be considered to have moved up 2 positions.

He won one of his expansions last week, and has many expansions to work on this week, including the distant world of Maia.

Dhanchu, Medzitha and 7 Zeta are again on his prep list (same as 2 weeks ago), and another prep war with Delaine is likely for these systems, and Mahon may also get involved in two of them.

Aisling should move ahead of Antal at the end of the week, but Antal may also move past Patreus, so he could maintain his current position in 8th.

Aisling Duval 37
Aisling dropped all the way down to 9th, and only 4% off 10th.

She lost 4 systems to turmoil, and now has an improved starting cc balance of -597, which is still terrible, but much better than the -800 she was on not too long ago.

This means around 8 less systems need to be fortified each week, just to balance out the CC, and avoid turmoil.

It also means she has less systems than both Torval and Sirius now though, so getting back into the top 5 will be very difficult.

This week she has no expansion, but unless she is pushed into Turmoil, she should move ahead of both Antal and Patreus, and be in 7th position.

Archon Delaine 33
The pirate lord managed to win one of his expansions last week, but 3 of them lost.

These same 3 are already on Antals preparation list, and Dhanchu is already on Mahons, so more prep wars will be likely.

This week he has 2 expansions, if both win and Patreus loses his expansion, he may move ahead of Patreus into 9th position, of not, he will be in 10th.
 
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Aisling Duval starting CC balance is incorrect. I've calculated
-631.6 CC

Keep in mind that she shed some bad systems. It is possible that some of those had internal overlaps, which means that the income from their exploited systems was moved from a lost control system to one that it had overlap with.
 
If it is, would it be reflected in the data?

Not in the raw data for cycle 47. That only shows for the systems as the ecosystem was comprised in that cycle.

However - you can look at the raw data for cycle 47 and compare the income for each of your control systems with the income in cycle 48 (PowerPlay menu). There should be control systems with increased income equating to the difference between your calculation (-631) and the game's claim (-597) or 34 CC.
 
@Vectron & @Vespera - I'm glad someone knows how to run the numbers on this thing.

@Vespera - are you part of the Aisling scene out on Reddit yet?

I've got enough drama with The Feds and this Rise To Power thing. Haven't looked at the Aisling Redditt for a long time.

You should be like Jane Turner, but for Aisling instead of the communists.
 
@Vectron & @Vespera - I'm glad someone knows how to run the numbers on this thing.

@Vespera - are you part of the Aisling scene out on Reddit yet?

I've got enough drama with The Feds and this Rise To Power thing. Haven't looked at the Aisling Redditt for a long time.

You should be like Jane Turner, but for Aisling instead of the communists.

To be honest, with her flair for numbers and interests in the statistics, she'd be a great addition to the Alliance Office of Statistics.
 
what number have you calculated it as?

The galnet predictions have been 100% accurate in my experience.

They are not this week.

Conduct your own summing from the CSV and from the powerplay menu.

I think you'll find the gross income to be: 4238
I think you'll find the total upkeep to be: -1392
I think you'll find the total overheads to be: -3477.6
I think you'll find the value of the deficit to be: -631.6

"O Gaze ye'all upon my data and I entreat thee to find errors~" - Said she
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ELyNXGtKSFsOK7uyNto3r4f21SAk1-THyHHNhXeDkVk/edit#gid=0
 
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Not in the raw data for cycle 47. That only shows for the systems as the ecosystem was comprised in that cycle.

However - you can look at the raw data for cycle 47 and compare the income for each of your control systems with the income in cycle 48 (PowerPlay menu). There should be control systems with increased income equating to the difference between your calculation (-631) and the game's claim (-597) or 34 CC.

I had to double check my figures based on the powerplay menu's control system CC totals, and then i checked with the CSV using http://hosting.zaonce.net/powerplay-...ms28.04.16.csv.

I had the exact same values... It confused me because the value were still broken in the summary of the Power. I was off by 34 CC.

Other's who i've shown this have agreed that something is wrong with what the menus are showing.

The only thing that is certain is that the CSV correlates with the Control System Menu... unless the recent update has fixed it.
 
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@Vectron & @Vespera - I'm glad someone knows how to run the numbers on this thing.

@Vespera - are you part of the Aisling scene out on Reddit yet?

I've got enough drama with The Feds and this Rise To Power thing. Haven't looked at the Aisling Redditt for a long time.

You should be like Jane Turner, but for Aisling instead of the communists.

I have been posting a lot of my data, charts and diagrams on the aisling duval subreddit regarding control systems and fortification triggers, the necessity to scrap, and player groups.

Sometimes it's well received, sometimes it isn't.

Being a member of the Black Hand means some find me Guilty by Association.
It is due to this Association Fallacy that I am not allowed on the slack and hence had to find alternative networks like the discord to converse with other people who support Aisling Duval.

Because of this, when I post stuff and mention where they can reach me, I am told that I am splitting the community. (I've recently made a post exploring why some people may come to those conclusions by deconstructing how we decide who is a part of a community and who isn't using diagrams)

On the whole things are getting better. The recent controlled scrap being one of the things I'm happy about, along with the inter-group operations between the AA and the BH.

In any case, I am also spreading a communist agenda which you can see in my art that you can find here: https://forums.frontier.co.uk/showthread.php?t=244371
 
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To be honest, with her flair for numbers and interests in the statistics, she'd be a great addition to the Alliance Office of Statistics.

Yes, please, take him/her to Alliance. We at Aisling would be very grateful if you took that spokesperson of a group which has been undermining efforts of the entire community for months now.

- - - - - Additional Content Posted / Auto Merge - - - - -

Olivia. If you refuse to quit a group banned from Slack (our main, and, frankly, only intergroup communication channel), then you have to accept the consequences. You think if you joined Al-Kaida, you wouldn't be treated as a terrorist? If you agree with what Black Hand is doing, then you should accept you are treated like a member of BH. If you don't, then why didn't you quit BH?
 
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Also, telling people where they can reach you is absolutely fine, what isn't fine is calling that place "Official Aisling Duval Discord". Of course, official Discord not a single group (except BH) agreed with and wants it to represent AD).
 
Olivia, for the record, you're always welcome in Antal space. We're an inclusive band of misfits, crazies and nerds that can certainly appreciate your contributions to the game and community as a whole.

Please know that you're doing fantastic work. Keep it up!
 
These are all the responses I have to your comments, Tataboj
Also, telling people where they can reach you is absolutely fine, what isn't fine is calling that place "Official Aisling Duval Discord". Of course, official Discord not a single group (except BH) agreed with and wants it to represent AD).

We have never called it the Official Aisling Duval Discord. Never has there been a quote found in all I have written like that. All we have done is called it the Aisling Duval Discord. Because Aisling Duval Discord is its name. I think english is to blame for the confusion between description and title and people have a tendency to read things that aren't there. (I don't speak lojban unfortunately, only Esperanto)
Yes, please, take him/her to Alliance. We at Aisling would be very grateful if you took that spokesperson of a group which has been undermining efforts of the entire community for months now.

- - - - - Additional Content Posted / Auto Merge - - - - -

Olivia. If you refuse to quit a group banned from Slack (our main, and, frankly, only intergroup communication channel), then you have to accept the consequences. You think if you joined Al-Kaida, you wouldn't be treated as a terrorist? If you agree with what Black Hand is doing, then you should accept you are treated like a member of BH. If you don't, then why didn't you quit BH?
I am no spokesperson, I speak for myself and what I believe in. I have always done so and I continue to do so.

I refuse to abandon the Black Hand out of principle because I do not think members should be bullied and peer pressured out of a player group they have fun with by another larger group.

And I disapprove of them being compared to a terrorist group because They're not terrorists. Have they acted unilaterally in the past? Sure but only because they have a different idea of what should be done for Aisling Duval. That does not make them terrorist. To my knowledge they have never attacked another player or struck terror in anyone. If there's anyone conducting any fear mongering, it's not the Black Hand.

Your comparison for which you base all your succeeding statements are unfounded and off-topic for this thread.
Olivia, for the record, you're always welcome in Antal space. We're an inclusive band of misfits, crazies and nerds that can certainly appreciate your contributions to the game and community as a whole.

Please know that you're doing fantastic work. Keep it up!

Aw~ Thank you I was thinking we should probably do some joint BGS operations focused on communism. Hit me up if you're interested.

Let's stick to the data.

I have updated my values given what was given to me by Oklei to a deficit value of -607.6 CC
This is about 10 CC away from your values.

I think it means your values are fairly accurate and mine are not completely there yet.

Just have to figure out where that 10 CC went~ :s
 
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We have never called it the Official Aisling Duval Discord. Never has there been a quote found in all I have written like that. All we have done is called it the Aisling Duval Discord. Because Aisling Duval Discord is its name. I think english is to blame for the confusion between description and title and people have a tendency to read things that aren't there. (I don't speak lojban unfortunately, only Esperanto)
So you don't want your Discord to represent AD? Because if you do, lack of "Official" doesn't change anything.

I am no spokesperson, I speak for myself and what I believe in. I have always done so and I continue to do so.

I refuse to abandon the Black Hand out of principle because I do not think members should be bullied and peer pressured out of a player group they have fun with by another larger group.

And I disapprove of them being compared to a terrorist group because They're not terrorists. Have they acted unilaterally in the past? Sure but only because they have a different idea of what should be done for Aisling Duval. That does not make them terrorist. To my knowledge they have never attacked another player or struck terror in anyone. If there's anyone conducting any fear mongering, it's not the Black Hand.

Your comparison for which you base all your succeeding statements are unfounded and off-topic for this thread.
Having a different idea of what should be done for Aisling Duval is one thing. Another thing is deliberately acting against made consensus and using information from our secure channels to undermine our efforts.

If "having fun" won't mean "acting against the rest of the community", then I am sure BH will be, after a while, accepted back in the Slack. Right now it looks good.

I don't recall a single Commentary thread, where things didn't go off topic. :)
 
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