Powerplay Cycle 49 PP Commentary

Cycle 48 link

Raw data is out again

Known Merits

vUrsehC.png


ALD and Hudson again both had expansions, Hudson did the most total merits again, but much less in expansion than usual.
ALD was second, with Aisling and Mahon a fair bit behind in the 3rd and 4th position.

The other 6 powers had much lower total merits than the top 4.

On the effective chart you can see ALD and Hudson had no effective merits in expansion, due to both of them being in Turmoil.

ALD had the most effective merits, followed by Aisling and Hudson, who didn't have much between them.

Winters and Mahon were close together in the 4th and 5th positions, with 6th down to 9th decreasing steadily.

Patreus had a very small amount of effective merits.

*Edit Hudson did win an expansion, more on that later, this is the change in the effective chart from above:
2caJpJB.png



Opposition and Undermining

8uFjIPB.png


Mahon was the most opposed again, followed by ALD, who got the most total undermining.

Winters and Hudson were 3rd and 4th, then total opposition declines from Delaine down to Aisling.

On the effective chart, ALD got the most effective undermining, with a massive 565034 merits.
Mahon was second, with again undermining and expansion opposition nearly even on him.

Winters and Hudson both had a high amount of effective undermining.

The other 6 powers got a low to very low amount of effective opposition, with Torval receiving 0 merits in effective opposition.

Effective Ratio

O23oPiJ.png


Winters had a very good fortification efficiency rating, over 90%.
Delaine and Antal were both high as usual (their ratios, Antal bans Narcotics) and Mahon was in 4th place, with a much lower ratio than the previous week.

For undermining ALD had a very high ratio, and so did Antal, Aisling and Winters.

Hudsons Turmoil
Hudson is in Turmoil, but also won an expansion, but has done so in a new way, which means the game code still has some logic errors in it.

He ended the week on -119, and has the system of 26 Ophiuchi in turmoil, which has an income of 118.

Systems in turmoil have their income taken away from the previous weeks end balance, so this means Hudson ended the week on -1cc.

The system of Ravas was expanded to. This has an income of 64, and upkeep of 34, and an overhead cost of 62.
Ravas is worth -32cc to Hudson, so the following seemed to happen.

Hudson fortified enough to end the cycle on 31cc.
Thus he wasn't in Turmoil.
So his expansion went through.
But his expansion was worth -32cc.
This put his balance down to -1cc.
Which pushed him into Turmoil, specifically the system of 26 Ophiuchi, which then removes its income of 118cc.
So in game it reports Hudson ended on -119cc.

The expansion rules were changed way back in cycle 5-6 to stop a Power in Turmoil from being pushed deeper in Turmoil from winning more expansions, and this does seem to be whats happened form then on (with a few exceptions)

This is a different situation, Hudson was not in Turmoil, his loss making expansion alone has pushed him into Turmoil, and this behaviour needs to be patched ASAP, but with the current beta happening, I wouldn't hold your breath.


Speculation and Commentary

Mahon 92

The Prime Minister is number 1 again.
Mahon won 3 more expansions, taking his total number of systems up to 97, one off where he was before he lost 12 systems to Turmoil.

Last week he didn't seem to get any 5c preparations on his list, and this week he 9 expansions, with a number again inside Federation territory.

His starting balance is down to 436cc, but this is still the second best in the game.

Even if he hits Turmoil there is no other power close enough to take the 1st position from him at the end of the week.

Hudson 77

The President is in Turmoil but retained the 2nd position.

With his expansion that won (and shouldn't have) he is now on 81 systems, well short of Mahons 97, but still a decent lead over Winters 71 systems.

This week he again has multiple weaponised expansions for his players to oppose.
He also has a weaponised expansion of his own in ALD territory.

Hudson will probably move down to 3rd at the end of the week, but might retain the 2nd position.

Winters 72

The Shadow President retained the number 3 position, and was able to win another expansion, giving her 7 more than the next closest power to her, ALD.

This week Winters has the Haydes Sector IC-K B9-4 expansion again, probably what ahs been the most contested bubble of space in Power Play.

They are currently winning by around 1000% but with ALD having no expansions, this will probably need a very large amount of merits to win.

Winters score should overtake Hudson (temporarily) at the end of the cycle, putting he back up to 2nd.

Torval 66
No matter how old Torval looks, she just wont die. She moved up to 4th after winning 2 more expansions.

This takes her total number of control systems to 62.

This is only 3 less than ALD, and with ALD having 2 systems in Turmoil, and Torval having 2 expansions, she may equalize or overtake ALDs number of systems at the end of this cycle.

Unless Torval hits Turmoil ( and that also probably wont matter) Torval should be in 4th position at the end of the week.

Aisling 50
The Peoples Princess moved back up unto the top 5 (just, only 1% ahead of both Sirius and ALD)

She won an expansion, taking her total number of control systems back up to 57.

Sirius has 3 more systems, but Aisling has 2 expansions which will receive 0 opposition, so Aisling should still be above Sirius at the end of the week, and will probably still be 5th.

Sirius 49
Sirius ended the week on exactly 0cc (I haven't noticed any other power doing that before) so avoided turmoil by the slimmest of margins.
He is on 49% along with ALD, but with no expansions it depends on what happens to ALD as to whether he is 6th or 7th at the end of this cycle.

ALD 49
The Emperor had another bad week, but her players did the only sensible thing possible, because of her negative starting cc balance making it impossible to save her 2 systems from being lost.

They managed to get her worst systems undermined, so 2 of them are now on the chopping block.
This week a large amount of fortifying, and collusion piracy will again be needed, to have any chance of actually losing these 2 systems.

If these systems are lost, ALD probably won't drop into the bottom 3, but she will certainly be 7th again.
If she fortifies out or turmoil, and keeps these 2 systems, she may still be 7th also.

Patreus 35

The Admiral ended the week with a small CC surplus and maintained his 8th ranking.

This week he has a weaponised expansion in the middle of Hudsons territory, and with its unfavorable trigger, it will be very difficult to win.

Antal has no expansions so probably won't move past him at the end of the week, but with their scores still being very close, he may drop down from 8th.

Antal 31

Antal moved down from equal 8th, to 9th this week.
His preparation in the system of Nerry seems to have vanished into the void so he has no expansions this cycle.

This week he doesn't quite have enough CC to prepare Dhanchu, so there will be no prep race between Him, Mahon and Delaine again.

With a score very close to Patreus and Delaine, Antal could be 8th to 10th at the end of this cycle.

Delaine 29
The Pirate lord won another expansion, this one in the recently contested (between Antal, Patreus and Delaine) region of HIP 103138.

This week he has 3 expansions to work on, and lots of CC to prepare with.

If he wins all 3 of his expansions, he will probably move up to 8th, but its probably impossible for him to move past ALD into 7th.

He will probably win 0 or 1 or the expansions and be 9th or 10th at the end of the cycle.
 
Hudson's expansion merits should be considered effective. He did get Ravas despite the turmoil.

And I think him winning the expansion and then going to turmoil was fair under the mechanics at hand. It wasn't Ravas that got him to turmoil, it was Torval's expansion. Although I wouldn't mind if it had failed since it blocks Kaukai for us.
 
Last edited:
Hudson's expansion merits should be considered effective. He did get Ravas despite the turmoil.

And I think him winning the expansion and then going to turmoil was fair under the mechanics at hand. It wasn't Ravas that got him to turmoil, it was Torval's expansion. Although I wouldn't mind if it had failed since it blocks Kaukai for us.

Was Torvals expansion the one that cut into some of Hudsons?
 
Hudson's expansion merits should be considered effective. He did get Ravas despite the turmoil.

And I think him winning the expansion and then going to turmoil was fair under the mechanics at hand. It wasn't Ravas that got him to turmoil, it was Torval's expansion. Although I wouldn't mind if it had failed since it blocks Kaukai for us.

Torval's expansion into Jamuxa also exploits/contests Kaukai, so that won't actually matter.

- - - - - Additional Content Posted / Auto Merge - - - - -

Was Torvals expansion the one that cut into some of Hudsons?

Yes, both the Jamuxa (Torval expansion) and Contien (Mahon failed expansion) cut into Hudson's expansion. Hudson apparently failed to pay attention to the map when he decided to put a whole heap of opposition into Contien and effectively nothing into Jamuxa.

He probably suffers from a combination of target fixation and a desire to start more wars than he can keep track of.
 
Yes, both the Jamuxa (Torval expansion) and Contien (Mahon failed expansion) cut into Hudson's expansion. Hudson apparently failed to pay attention to the map when he decided to put a whole heap of opposition into Contien and effectively nothing into Jamuxa.

He probably suffers from a combination of target fixation and a desire to start more wars than he can keep track of.

So its possible that Hudson got his expansion sorted out first, and it was worth more than -32, so he wasn't in Turmoil, then Torval has her calculation, and her expansion at Jamuxa won, but it was now a weaponised expansion, and 3 systems that did give CC to Hudson were now contested, which pushed him into Turmoil.

So Torvals weaponised expansion Turmoiled Hudson. Best expansion eva!
 
So its possible that Hudson got his expansion sorted out first, and it was worth more than -32, so he wasn't in Turmoil, then Torval has her calculation, and her expansion at Jamuxa won, but it was now a weaponised expansion, and 3 systems that did give CC to Hudson were now contested, which pushed him into Turmoil.

So Torvals weaponised expansion Turmoiled Hudson. Best expansion eva!

By the looks of it, yes, and for just 2 CC. :D
 
Hudson's expansion merits should be considered effective. He did get Ravas despite the turmoil.

And I think him winning the expansion and then going to turmoil was fair under the mechanics at hand. It wasn't Ravas that got him to turmoil, it was Torval's expansion. Although I wouldn't mind if it had failed since it blocks Kaukai for us.

I disagree. I don't care if FDev calculates expansion results sequentially, they are supposed to happen simultaneously in game. The 28CC of Ravas income contested by Torval's also winning expansion Jamuxa should have never been counted as income for Ravas in the first place during the expansion phase. Maybe our Turmoil would have been more legitimate if Torval's expansion contested a control system, but even then I don't think it makes much sense that a power would spend their suddenly vanished space money on a bad expansion and turmoil themselves in the process.

I'm not sure if we'll ever know how FDev intended such situations to actually play out (if they ever thought about it in the first place), maybe we'll get a patronizing pat on the head in a few months like Aisling at least ;)
 
I disagree. I don't care if FDev calculates expansion results sequentially, they are supposed to happen simultaneously in game. The 28CC of Ravas income contested by Torval's also winning expansion Jamuxa should have never been counted as income for Ravas in the first place during the expansion phase. Maybe our Turmoil would have been more legitimate if Torval's expansion contested a control system, but even then I don't think it makes much sense that a power would spend their suddenly vanished space money on a bad expansion and turmoil themselves in the process.

I'm not sure if we'll ever know how FDev intended such situations to actually play out (if they ever thought about it in the first place), maybe we'll get a patronizing pat on the head in a few months like Aisling at least ;)

I agree - the expansion is ultimately what put Hudson into turmoil, and as such that expansion should not have gone through. That being said, judging by FDev's record on these things they'll let the expansion stand along with the turmoil.
 
Great stuff. I don't think there was enough CC to actually get Nerry in the first place. It was used as a CC soak and prepared above others to stop other systems being expanded to.
 
I like that you've added the new effectiveness chart. what i'm not happy about is that you've switched the colours of fortification and undermining. That's confusing! :)
 
I disagree. I don't care if FDev calculates expansion results sequentially, they are supposed to happen simultaneously in game. The 28CC of Ravas income contested by Torval's also winning expansion Jamuxa should have never been counted as income for Ravas in the first place during the expansion phase. Maybe our Turmoil would have been more legitimate if Torval's expansion contested a control system, but even then I don't think it makes much sense that a power would spend their suddenly vanished space money on a bad expansion and turmoil themselves in the process.

I'm not sure if we'll ever know how FDev intended such situations to actually play out (if they ever thought about it in the first place), maybe we'll get a patronizing pat on the head in a few months like Aisling at least ;)

You did know it was going to happen a half hour before cycle tick. The fact that you knew still amazes me. I, for one, thought you were crazy when you mentioned it.

To FDev: this is the angriest I've seen Shepron. Make our Shepron happy again or suffer the consequences! :p
 
Hudsons Turmoil
Hudson is in Turmoil, but also won an expansion, but has done so in a new way, which means the game code still has some logic errors in it.

He ended the week on -119, and has the system of 26 Ophiuchi in turmoil, which has an income of 118.

Systems in turmoil have their income taken away from the previous weeks end balance, so this means Hudson ended the week on -1cc.

The system of Ravas was expanded to. This has an income of 64, and upkeep of 34, and an overhead cost of 62.
Ravas is worth -32cc to Hudson, so the following seemed to happen.

Hudson fortified enough to end the cycle on 31cc.
Thus he wasn't in Turmoil.
So his expansion went through.
But his expansion was worth -32cc.
This put his balance down to -1cc.
Which pushed him into Turmoil, specifically the system of 26 Ophiuchi, which then removes its income of 118cc.
So in game it reports Hudson ended on -119cc.

The expansion rules were changed way back in cycle 5-6 to stop a Power in Turmoil from being pushed deeper in Turmoil from winning more expansions, and this does seem to be whats happened form then on (with a few exceptions)

This is a different situation, Hudson was not in Turmoil, his loss making expansion alone has pushed him into Turmoil, and this behaviour needs to be patched ASAP, but with the current beta happening, I wouldn't hold your breath.


As best as I can ascertain, the system "was" better, being only -4 CC until Torval's expansion into Jamuxa under it was accounted for. That difference being the hiccup in the logic process to how it was paid for, then calculated as a loss to cause turmoil.

The original CC cost of -4 meant the cycle was ended on a +27cc first, paying for the expansion then the calculations of other expansions being done making Torval's damage readjust for the -1, causing the turmoil.

Something needs to be changed so the expansion is calculated under the assumption of all other expansions going through first or something like that to avoid a hiccup like this.
 
This may take a while to build the formulas, but is there any way you could weigh the effectiveness of the merits by the end result of the actions?
 
Last edited:
Nice. Except the way the 'effectivness' of merits is decided is slightly confusing
I was as brutal as possible in chopping all merits that were unneeded.
The main reason for this was to reduce the Hudson and ALD expansion merits because they used to make the graphs useless to see what any of the other powers do.

Now Hudson and ALD do much less in comparison to everyone else, its not as necessary to be so harsh, but I still think its the best way.

Any fortification merits in systems that aren't 100% fortified is counted as waste.
Any fortification merits over 100% are counted as waste.
Any expansion merits in a failed expansion are counted as waste (this also counts for turmoil).
Any opposition merits in successful expansion are counted as waste (or all are waste if there is turmoil)
The amount of merits needed to win the expansion over the opposition is counted for effective (using the triggers)
The amount of merits needed to stop an expansion over the needed amount is counted for effective (using the triggers)
The amount of preparation needed to win any prep wars, and to put all afforded preparations above non afforded preparations is counted for effective.
All preparation merits in systems not prepared, or over the amount to get high enough on the list are waste.

This may take a while to build the formulas, but is there any way you could weigh the effectiveness of the merits by the end result of the actions?

It would be difficult to come up with a weighting that was useful to all powers, depends on what you put more importance on.

At the end of the day, the number of merits doesn't matter, its what you did with that many merits.
Mahon got away with doing the 4th to 6th amount of merits while maintaining 1st position for a long time.
 
Back
Top Bottom