Debunked BGS theories

One of the appeals of the BGS is its black box nature, figuring out how it works and applying that knowledge to achieve success in game. The downside is that this has resulted in a lot of misconceptions/disinformation. I thought it would be useful to gather together any theories that have been thoroughly disproven by the community (not just my own opinion!).

Please post candidates theories for highlighting here. Ill try to keep the first post updated and feel free to post clarifications.

To get the ball rolling:

1. War tax:

There was a "war tax" theory knocking about which sought to explain what was happening by suggesting that there was an automatic drain of faction influence across all systems during a conflicts. There is no such war tax.

What occurs is that the faction in a certain state does not have the benefit of certain actions during that state while the other factions have the benefit of all actions (assuming no state). For instance in a war, cmdrs running missions for all factions in pursuit of credits will boost all (non war) factions, any missions run for the war faction have zero effect for the duration. Without remedial action the war faction will drop and other factions will rise accordingly.

So any system where your faction is based that is afflicted with traffic will probably lose influence during conflict (depending on what activities are undertaken) best you can do is prepare through boosting inf in advance and keeping conflicts short.

2. NPCs affecting influence/automatic influence changes.

Some have posited that unexpected changes in influence levels result from some unspecified and undocumented mechanic usually attributed to modeling of NPC behavior in system. This is not correct. This general rule applies: Where there is no CMDR activity there are no influence changes. Exceptions include: Drop in influence in an active expansion source system. Changes due to a faction expanding into a system.

3. Missions during war/civil war.

Despite the flavor text in the mission descriptions, multiple batches of testing from many cmdrs and groups have shown that no missions have any influence effect during wartime. Only combat transactions have effect (Murder, Bonds & Bounties - Bonds effective in the war system only). There was some limited engagement with FDEV on the forum and the response was somewhat ambiguous suggesting that some missions should work - this may therefore be a bug. Whatever about should, our experience is that they do not work for influence. They still can fill/empty state "buckets"

4. Murder hurts the faction in whose jurisdiction the murder was committed.

In previous iterations of the BGS the jurisdiction in which the murder was committed determined who took the influence hit for the crime. This is no longer the case. the Murder effects the faction whose ships you are destroying.

h/t those who set me straight!

5. "You can't expand into a system if it already has 7 factions."

It's certainly *difficult* but it's not impossible. The following conditions must be met:
- no suitable system in expansion range with fewer than 7 factions
- no pending or active conflicts (as of 2.4, which makes it a lot tougher)
- suitable system with 7 factions is in range

If those conditions are met, expansion-by-invasion can take place. The faction enters the system and immediately sets up a War with a non-native faction already there. The losing faction is expelled from the system on conclusion of the war (if it ends in a draw, both stay). The conflict is a War even if the two factions would normally fight by Election.

h/t Ian Doncaster
 
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3. Missions that say they are "War Time" still have NO effect in War. Only Bonds and Bounties count during War/Civil War regardless of what the text says.

That's less of a theory and more downright misinformation from the game itself, but an important one to include!
 
4: "You can't expand into a system if it already has 7 factions."

It's certainly *difficult* but it's not impossible. The following conditions must be met:
- no suitable system in expansion range with fewer than 7 factions
- no pending or active conflicts (as of 2.4, which makes it a lot tougher)
- suitable system with 7 factions is in range

If those conditions are met, expansion-by-invasion can take place. The faction enters the system and immediately sets up a War with a non-native faction already there. The losing faction is expelled from the system on conclusion of the war (if it ends in a draw, both stay). The conflict is a War even if the two factions would normally fight by Election.
 
4: "You can't expand into a system if it already has 7 factions."

It's certainly *difficult* but it's not impossible. The following conditions must be met:
- no suitable system in expansion range with fewer than 7 factions
- no pending or active conflicts (as of 2.4, which makes it a lot tougher)
- suitable system with 7 factions is in range

If those conditions are met, expansion-by-invasion can take place. The faction enters the system and immediately sets up a War with a non-native faction already there. The losing faction is expelled from the system on conclusion of the war (if it ends in a draw, both stay). The conflict is a War even if the two factions would normally fight by Election.


I haven't experienced an invasion scenario yet so cant comment, anyone else have experience?

Is this a debunked wild theory? I would probably class it as a lesser known mechanic. Might change the thread to encompass both.
 
I haven't experienced an invasion scenario yet so cant comment, anyone else have experience?

Is this a debunked wild theory? I would probably class it as a lesser known mechanic. Might change the thread to encompass both.
I'd agree that "wild" is perhaps unfair - a claim of "7 factions maximum" is false, but in practical terms the chances of anyone coming across the exception is low, especially since 2.4.

For an example, look at https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/systems/20/history where on 14 June Privateer's Alliance enters the Dubbuennel system, starts a war with Smiling Dingo Crew on 15 June, which ends in a PA win on 21 June and SDC leaving the system.

If you look back further in the same system you'll see an earlier attempt 10-13 May where PA enter the system, fight Colonia Council for four days, lose, and disappear again. (PA and Colonia Council are both Social ethos and normally have Elections)
 

Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
We've never seen it - in >300 expansions (in the back end of beyond) so I'd say lesser known mechanic sums it up nicely. We have seen expansion by invaision quite often (maybe 5 times) - but its not about the number of factions present is seem - 5 in one for example - but more about the coicidence of the ingoing influence and an existing one

BTW we've have shown again that Combat bonds can be cashed outside the system they were created in and have the effect on the origin system not the destination. That's 3 times now its worked in backater wars, the last one haveing been at stalemate for a wekk before the intervention.

That was the subject of another BGS thory (a side issue on the war tax)




EDIT: and Colonia does seem to have different "rules" to the rest of space
 
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We've never seen it - in >300 expansions (in the back end of beyond) so I'd say lesser known mechanic sums it up nicely. We have seen expansion by invaision quite often (maybe 5 times) - but its not about the number of factions present is seem - 5 in one for example - but more about the coicidence of the ingoing influence and an existing one
Going from an expansion straight into a pending war because the new faction came in with similar influence to an existing one is common enough ... but the result of that war doesn't usually lead to anyone being kicked out directly, does it? I'm not sure that's the same as what Frontier call an invasion.

EDIT: and Colonia does seem to have different "rules" to the rest of space
Other than some early weirdness from home systems not being set up properly for NPC factions to start with, I'm not sure I can think of any examples.

There's a lot of different consequences due to most systems only having a single native faction - and some factions not having the ethos they'd normally be expected to - but all the basic rules seem the same.

Certainly Colonia is (or has at times been) a more likely ground for invasion, just because of the lower system density and periodic waves of new systems appearing.
 
4: "You can't expand into a system if it already has 7 factions."

It's certainly *difficult* but it's not impossible. The following conditions must be met:
- no suitable system in expansion range with fewer than 7 factions
- no pending or active conflicts (as of 2.4, which makes it a lot tougher)
- suitable system with 7 factions is in range

If those conditions are met, expansion-by-invasion can take place. The faction enters the system and immediately sets up a War with a non-native faction already there. The losing faction is expelled from the system on conclusion of the war (if it ends in a draw, both stay). The conflict is a War even if the two factions would normally fight by Election.

Agreed. We had one which I reported on 24/10.

According to Inara, this was the nearest available system at 15.85Ly. There were five other systems within a 20Ly radius: 16.63Ly (7 factions), 16.96Ly (5), 19.19Ly (4), 19.78Ly (7) and 19.99Ly (5). As I recall the system was at peace.

If there is a strong lead in an 8-faction system, the other factions will be on slim pickings and one thrown out in short order. This is what happened.
 
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I'd like to add to the topic regarding the Systems with 8 or more MF in them the following observation.

Whilst looking through nearby Systems we came across one that was full and sported 2 foreign MF that only were present in that System but not in their respective home Systems.

That was about a month ago. Today I checked again out of curiosity. Suddenly they are present in their home Systems and in both the total MF count went from 7 to 8.

FD silently filling up the gaps eh?
 
I guess it's possible they had expanded more than once before being kicked out of their home system pre-expansion change, and then retreated from one expansion system but not the other? Keep in mind that under the previous rules expansions could go anywhere within the radius (with less than 5 factions, or to the system with the lowest-influence faction), they didn't go by closest-first as they (usually) do now. It was often a major undertaking to ensure a faction didn't exist somewhere else. Might have been missed.
That's quite the odd situation though.
 
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I'll debunk one of my own theories. I thought killing wanted NPCs had a small, but measurable negative effect on that faction's influence. But a very recent test shows that it has zero effect.

The system had a population of less than 1000. 3 factions with stable influence for over a month. All 3 factions had states of "none". An extremely quiet system. No traffic report was available.

I went to the Nav beacon and killed 10 wanted ships from the middle faction. I then went to a nearby low sec system and cashed the bounties at the IF.

After the tick, all 3 factions had the same influence as before. The traffic report showed up and my ship was the only one listed.

I doubt that 10 kills would fill a state bucket, but I checked the pendings anyway. No pending states for any of the factions.
 
This is one we havent tested ourselves in a while. Our experience was that killing wanted ships had limited to no effect. I would like to see some other views and corroboration before adding. The murder thing has made more cautious in that regard!
 

Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
I've shown again that cashing War bonds from one system in a different system DOES have an effect in the system with the CZ and none in the place where they are cashed.
 
This is one we havent tested ourselves in a while. Our experience was that killing wanted ships had limited to no effect. I would like to see some other views and corroboration before adding. The murder thing has made more cautious in that regard!

Yes, that's what my test showed. No measurable effect. This was between the Jan 25 and Jan 26 ticks.
 
I've shown again that cashing War bonds from one system in a different system DOES have an effect in the system with the CZ and none in the place where they are cashed.
My efforts recently are still showing otherwise.

Cashing war bonds in other systems are having no effect live in either the conflict system or destination - and MMs are not counting.


I need to test the new mechanics in Beta however, and after they are implemented.
 
I've shown again that cashing War bonds from one system in a different system DOES have an effect in the system with the CZ and none in the place where they are cashed.

Edit: Wait, i didn't read this or starwolfe correctly.

FWIW I cash bonds in other systems quite regularly to prop up struggling systems. Pilots fed bonds from thargoids also seemed to work, though I do want to experiment more with that.
 
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