(This might be more appropriate in "suggestions" but I think it will get wider comment here. However if you consider it necessary, mods, feel free to relocate it)
We have the "outbreak" state and the mechanisms for triggering it work well, its effects on the markets make sense but that's as far as it goes. If it was going to gain depth, how might that look? My ideas on the subject are here, feel free to throw rocks or comment...
How are diseases spread in a dispersed population? By individuals moving from one place to another. "Transmission vectors" are usually local in their scope. They require a healthy individual to be in at least relative proximity to a sick one in order for infection to proceed. What's the primary way individuals move around between systems? We are. The pilots. Who on an infected station is most likely to be the one carrying it somewhere else? The most disadvantaged. The slaves.
If you take on board passengers, slaves or imperial slaves from an outbreak station there's a chance you might spread it to wherever those persons leave your ship. It needs to be a really small chance, but it could happen.
NUMBERS: (skip these paragraphs if you're not interested in the possible math)
Let's aim for 500t of slaves having about 0.5% chance of spreading an outbreak. That means that there's a 1e-5 probability that any t of slaves you transport from an outbreak system is infected. we'll use this as the benchmark, but it needs some modifiers. Imperial slaves are in much better state than regular slaves and have more entitlement to care so let's half their chances of being infected. Passengers would be in even better state, being full citizens, a passenger has a quarter the chance of being infected than a can of slaves in cold-sleep. Unfortunately, where you're circumventing the normal exit procedures their precautions against spread of disease may not be effective. If your slaves or imps came from the black market, or if a passenger is running from the cops, the chances that they'll be infected if they boarded in an outbreak system double.
Examples:
You loaded 200t of ImpSlaves legally at a system under outbreak. Now you are offloading them. The chance that any t carries the infection is 5e-6 (1e-5 x 0.5(imperials), legally bought(no modifier)) so the chance that your 200t shipment will infect the place you sell them is
1-((1-5e-6)^200) = 0.0009995 or 0.01%
You bought 100t of slaves on the black market at an outbreak system. Now you're selling them to your pirate buddies. The chance any t is infected is 2e-5 (1e-5 x 2(illegally boarded)) so the chance you've just infected your market is
1-((1-2e-5)^100) = 0.001998 or 0.2%
You took a mission to get two wanted passengers out of an outbreak system. You have completed the mission and they are leaving your ship. The chance that either passenger is infected is 5e-6 (1e-5 x 0.25(free citizen) x 2(illegallyboarded)) so the chance your two fugitives will spread the infection is only
1-((1-5e6)^2) = 0.00000999 or 0.001%
/NUMBERS
So what happens if you did spread the contagion?
At the next BGS tick, the place you infected immediately begins the outbreak state, overriding any current or pending state. People carried out of there can now spread the infection further in their turn. If the place they came from has infected two or more systems in the same BGS cycle, it switches to a new state - Plague. This is like outbreak but needs advanced medicines at a premium, not basic. In addition the system goes under quarantine. You can offload passengers there if it's their destination (possible new premium passenger mission - ferry medical team to...) but not kick them off against their will. The only passenger missions on the board will be illegal ones, people trying to get out past the quarantine. Selling or buying slaves or imps on the legal market is closed down for the duration of the plague and only possible on the BM. In any other system, if you are caught with persons on board (passengers slaves or imps) that originated in a plague system they won't fine you, they'll decontaminate their space with their guns. This makes those "get me out of here" passenger missions very high risk and they should pay accordingly. Persons originating in Plague systems infect others at twice the probability of outbreak systems.
Thoughts?
We have the "outbreak" state and the mechanisms for triggering it work well, its effects on the markets make sense but that's as far as it goes. If it was going to gain depth, how might that look? My ideas on the subject are here, feel free to throw rocks or comment...
How are diseases spread in a dispersed population? By individuals moving from one place to another. "Transmission vectors" are usually local in their scope. They require a healthy individual to be in at least relative proximity to a sick one in order for infection to proceed. What's the primary way individuals move around between systems? We are. The pilots. Who on an infected station is most likely to be the one carrying it somewhere else? The most disadvantaged. The slaves.
If you take on board passengers, slaves or imperial slaves from an outbreak station there's a chance you might spread it to wherever those persons leave your ship. It needs to be a really small chance, but it could happen.
NUMBERS: (skip these paragraphs if you're not interested in the possible math)
Let's aim for 500t of slaves having about 0.5% chance of spreading an outbreak. That means that there's a 1e-5 probability that any t of slaves you transport from an outbreak system is infected. we'll use this as the benchmark, but it needs some modifiers. Imperial slaves are in much better state than regular slaves and have more entitlement to care so let's half their chances of being infected. Passengers would be in even better state, being full citizens, a passenger has a quarter the chance of being infected than a can of slaves in cold-sleep. Unfortunately, where you're circumventing the normal exit procedures their precautions against spread of disease may not be effective. If your slaves or imps came from the black market, or if a passenger is running from the cops, the chances that they'll be infected if they boarded in an outbreak system double.
Examples:
You loaded 200t of ImpSlaves legally at a system under outbreak. Now you are offloading them. The chance that any t carries the infection is 5e-6 (1e-5 x 0.5(imperials), legally bought(no modifier)) so the chance that your 200t shipment will infect the place you sell them is
1-((1-5e-6)^200) = 0.0009995 or 0.01%
You bought 100t of slaves on the black market at an outbreak system. Now you're selling them to your pirate buddies. The chance any t is infected is 2e-5 (1e-5 x 2(illegally boarded)) so the chance you've just infected your market is
1-((1-2e-5)^100) = 0.001998 or 0.2%
You took a mission to get two wanted passengers out of an outbreak system. You have completed the mission and they are leaving your ship. The chance that either passenger is infected is 5e-6 (1e-5 x 0.25(free citizen) x 2(illegallyboarded)) so the chance your two fugitives will spread the infection is only
1-((1-5e6)^2) = 0.00000999 or 0.001%
/NUMBERS
So what happens if you did spread the contagion?
At the next BGS tick, the place you infected immediately begins the outbreak state, overriding any current or pending state. People carried out of there can now spread the infection further in their turn. If the place they came from has infected two or more systems in the same BGS cycle, it switches to a new state - Plague. This is like outbreak but needs advanced medicines at a premium, not basic. In addition the system goes under quarantine. You can offload passengers there if it's their destination (possible new premium passenger mission - ferry medical team to...) but not kick them off against their will. The only passenger missions on the board will be illegal ones, people trying to get out past the quarantine. Selling or buying slaves or imps on the legal market is closed down for the duration of the plague and only possible on the BM. In any other system, if you are caught with persons on board (passengers slaves or imps) that originated in a plague system they won't fine you, they'll decontaminate their space with their guns. This makes those "get me out of here" passenger missions very high risk and they should pay accordingly. Persons originating in Plague systems infect others at twice the probability of outbreak systems.
Thoughts?
