Elite Dangerous Seasons. A random prediction for the next 4 years, that's probably utterly wrong.

Morning CMDRS! (Or afternoon, evening, why are you still even awake?!)

Sunday lunch is cooking and I once again excited about the launch of Horizon's Beta tomorrow. I also have a dummy/pacifier ready in case it is delayed once more (but totally understand why if that's the case). That said, I've put down some musings as to how the next 4 years might plan out for our beloved game. Feel free to disagree, I'd love to hear your opinions.

Season 1: Elite Dangerous

This is out. CMDR Thrust doesn't play this anymore.

Season 2: Horizons

Imminent! No-atmosphere planets, new ships (+ variants), SBVs, early crafting, multi-crew (potentially later in the season), potentially Thargoids. See you in Merope.

CMDR Thrust has already desecrated the flag on earth's moon.

Season 3: Homeworld

I predict that this will be when we can land on earth-like worlds (but not necessaily gas giants). This may or may not include first-person because technically Season 2 allows us to land and "do stuff" (tm). However if we have roaming vehicles, perhaps we'll get submersibles! Looting & Crafting enhanced (with basic alien technology thrown in), and some new ships introduced. Thargoid thread increased and potentially the reveal of a new alien race. I'd see passenger missions introduced at this point as it makes more sense then them wanting to go to shoddy backwater moon-bases.

A random CMDR complains that his home at 15, Tipton Street, Log-in-the-hole-upon-Wooton hasn't been accurately recreated. Derek Smart suggests a side-story where an alien race nukes Earth from orbity and has turned in to to a glass parking-lot, saving Frontier Developments thousands in development costs. Uproar on the forums can be measured in the "Gigawatt" range.

Season 4: Enemy At The Gate

At this point, the Thargoid/other alien threat has increased. Stations and planetary bases are more fleshed out (NPC activity, scenery fluff related to the the state the systems are in), and there are active conflict zones around gas-giants that we can now fly in to the upper atmosphere of but not land on (due to crushing atmospheric pressure, unless we suddenly invent some kind of new shields). Looting and crafting enhanced with more alien technology.

Alien/Thargoid factions become part of Power-play and commanders can choose to support the aliens or not. Nobody does and the design decision is regarded as clearly a bad idea. Thargoids lose 814,000 to 0.

Season 5: Buccaneer

This season continues during the galaxy-wide conflict. The pirating career has been more fleshed out and there are more options depending on *who* you are pirating. At least a second alien race is present by this point and whether they side with us or the Thargoids depends on what the powers do/ This would also be the expansion, I think, where we get the First-person module as by this point the terrain generation and planetary content would be much better and enhanced. Now we can hang out at space-bars and, uh, relatively less agreeable "clubs".

Various pirate player groups now put bouncers at the entrances to various popular clubs including "The Naked Noti".

Some players who supported the Thargoids during the alien-power-play (e.g. 1 pilot), have upgraded super weapons on their ship which causes an outrage on the forum and is immediately nerfed by Frontier. Said pilot flies in to a nearby Sun, a martyr to the alien cause.

Season 6: Andromeda

Why make one galaxy when you can make two at twice-the-procedural-generation-cost? Fantastic new worm-hole technology has opened up the possibility of going to another Galaxy. Even though only 2% of the Milky Way has been explored at this point, everyone abandons ship to head to Andromeda. New alien races are introduced who have been hanging out in Andromeda quite happily for the last millennia and violently respond to the incursion of CMDRS in trumped-up mega-ships with Onion-head paintjobs and Creedence Clearwater Revival pumping out of their sound-systems.


Right, need to put on potatoes.
 
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I think flight in gas giants will come before populated worlds.

Landing on gas giants may take longer...
 
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I think flight in gas giants will come before populated worlds.

Thinking about it, that's not a bad point... my reasoning was around the fact that after Horizons, FD have everything in place for us being able to land (minus the differences for planets with atmosphere), however gas-giants require a whole new kind of engine-modification (lots of volumetric clouds, gases, hues), and nowhere to really land. But I guess we could scoop gases at the various levels.
 
My rough guesses:

Season 2 - Planetary landings, prep for getting out of the pilot seat (character generator, multi crew)

Season 3 - Ship interiors and the ability to move around, boarding of other ships, atmospheric planets (NOT ones with wildlife and vegetation though...more the likes of Mars, Venus and Titan.). The planetary gameplay will still be similar to Season 2 though, just with more variation. Potentially gas giants too...

Season 4 - Station interiors and the ability to move around and meet (or kill) NPCs there. The ability to also explore planets on foot. Still not Earthlikes though...

Season 5 - "Earthlike" planets. Might still be some restrictions, especially in regards to cities which might still be another year or two away.

Season 6 - Capital ship gameplay.

Why?

Because of this list "in no particular order" that the showed in an old newsletter:

  • Landing / driving / prospecting on airless rocky planets, moons & asteroids (Elite Dangerous: Horizons)
  • Walking around interiors and combative boarding of other ships
  • Combat and other interactions with other players and AIs in the internal areas of star ports
  • Accessing richly detailed planetary surfaces
  • Availability of giant ‘executive control’ ships to players
 
All good predictions, I think (both kicks and Tinman). But the most important question is...

Will there be a full wipe?
 
Even I would love to.... each day I realize more and more that its practically imposible to have atmoshpere plantets (remaining planets) in season 3, with weather, wild life, intelligent life, cities etcetc
 
Even I would love to.... each day I realize more and more that its practically imposible to have atmoshpere plantets (remaining planets) in season 3, with weather, wild life, intelligent life, cities etcetc

Atmospheric planets (Mars, Venus, Titan...), sure. Even the next logical step, the next layer on top of the surfaces so to speak. It's not gonna be the "season seller" though IMO. Rather something that might come in later in Season 3.

Wildlife, intelligent life, fully fledged cities...hahahahahahaha...no. ;)

I do think planetside settlements will grow in size as development progresses though. This will happen in smaller steps rather than one big one IMO.
 
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I really doubt a fully developed planet like earth is possible to create in this engine. Unless some cataclysmic event has made Earth a planet where one or two colonies remain. All other planets are technically so young that only few colonies exist and populations travel to another planet before they colonize the previous one to the today's Earth extent.

Unless by fully fledged cities we mean just a well designed non-interactive background which will be only a dissapointment. Maybe even then there will be a few places you can visit on foot, certainly not by a seamless transition from landing to say a shop on that fully fledged city.

As for wildlife, if no man's sky did it maybe elite can have it too, though it is obvious the design of the two titles is very different and optimized for different things.

We do still dream...
 
Because they are aiming for such high quality in what they do, earth like worlds I guess will be at least two years plus away and could easy be as much as five years away if they do it well.

Or they may instead decided to have the cheap and cheerful cut down in content and quality earth like planets like most of the other games do then it could come in season 3.

We will see...

But do not expect miracles.
 
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Thinking about it, that's not a bad point... my reasoning was around the fact that after Horizons, FD have everything in place for us being able to land (minus the differences for planets with atmosphere), however gas-giants require a whole new kind of engine-modification (lots of volumetric clouds, gases, hues), and nowhere to really land. But I guess we could scoop gases at the various levels.

And there could perhaps be unique bases and industrial installations in the upper layers of some gas giants?
I really hope there will be.
 
IT would be interesting to know what FD thinks about intelligent life (non-human). If the idea is just humans, humans+thargoids (never played elite before).. fixed alien race numbers across galaxy ... or just procedurally generated too , something like no-mans-sky implementation.
 
All good predictions, I think (both kicks and Tinman). But the most important question is...

Will there be a full wipe?
.Indeed.

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IT would be interesting to know what FD thinks about intelligent life (non-human). If the idea is just humans, humans+thargoids (never played elite before).. fixed alien race numbers across galaxy ... or just procedurally generated too , something like no-mans-sky implementation.

Don't forget the rogue sentient AI out there.
 
And there could perhaps be unique bases and industrial installations in the upper layers of some gas giants?
I really hope there will be.

That would be kind of cool actually. Almost like the reverse of terraforming platforms. They hang there and process the noxious gases to be transported off-planet (to nearby outposts) for further processing before being used in industrial proportions.

As cool as that would be, I'm not sure how much extra gameplay it would warrant beyond the pretty cloud-scapes of gas-giants. It'd be just "scoop'n'sell".

There may be potential benefits in extending the explorers/miners roles who can go down to the gaseous outlier regions of the planets and identify stuff to scoop (perhaps the Fuel Scoop gets an up-grade and can do different gases?). But again, a lot of work for those pretty cloud-scapes for very little in return game-play wise (at a very basic level).

My negative points not withstanding, I still think it'd be awesome as it'd just be another class of planetoid brought in to the fold that has a use and potentially beautiful visuals. Forget a sun-rise on planet X... what about a binary sun-rise underneath several atmosphere's worth of ammonia? :)
 
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