Expansion by invasion: opportunity to watch

[Ian Doncaster]

A rare expansion-by-invasion is now available to watch, as the Nomads of Nevermore have expanded into the Tir system from Eol Prou RS-T d3-612.
At 21.89 LY it was their closest inhabited system, and the only one within range without Investment.
They now fight a War with Alberta Industries for a place in the system - note that this has started without the usual pending period, and is a War rather than an Election despite a (probably, anyway) matching Social ethos.

Data for Tir is at https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/systems/70/history for those who don't have exploration data for it already.

Tir is a fairly busy system, and the current top 3 factions including the controller are either in an Election or presently out of conflict, so unless someone pushes one side or the other (and possibly even if they do...), the most likely result is a 1%-1% tie.

 

[Starwolfe]

Nice! Best of luck on gaining a foothold there.

 

[Deareim]

Were they in expansion state without prio 1 pending ? That is why they have triggered.
Like said above, good luck to win the war...

 

[SkipSh00ter]

I can guarantee it won't end in a tie
If it does, it won't be for lack of pushing.
We have seen our(Nomads) influence fall over the 3 previous tics as our opponent sat at 1% even with us turning in several hundred kills and several massacre missions daily. Over the last tic, we did the same thing but added Strategic Data missions along with hauling War commodities to other station in Tir. We saw a very slight (.4) increase.
The BGS is still very cryptic to say the least but we're doing what we can to keep a spot in Tir.

 

[Marcus Machiavelli]

EPIC! go hard!

 

[Ian Doncaster]

The BGS is still very cryptic to say the least but we're doing what we can to keep a spot in Tir.

With Colonia Cooperative, Brian's Thugs, Colonia Council and Jaques now also in their own wars, you should have a little more space to gain influence without the other factions gaining more.

A draw should be sufficient to keep you in the system - though of course it'll take longer.

As I understand it, the only actions in a war which gain you influence are combat zone bonds and bounties - missions won't help your influence, though they will improve your chances of coming out of the war into a favourable BGS state. I believe as far as bonds and bounties go, the cash value doesn't matter, only the number collected.

 

[SkipSh00ter]

With Colonia Cooperative, Brian's Thugs, Colonia Council and Jaques now also in their own wars, you should have a little more space to gain influence without the other factions gaining more.

A draw should be sufficient to keep you in the system - though of course it'll take longer.

As I understand it, the only actions in a war which gain you influence are combat zone bonds and bounties - missions won't help your influence, though they will improve your chances of coming out of the war into a favourable BGS state. I believe as far as bonds and bounties go, the cash value doesn't matter, only the number collected.

I also understand it as the only actions that gain influence are combat bounds and bounties but with our opponent sitting at 1%, where could we possibly gain it from? I've not seen combat bonds take influence from a faction that isn't involved in the same conflict so we started doing missions to see if anything would budge-not to say anyone thought it would but it seems BGS things are not always bound by our thoughts. As of today, we're up to 5.6% from 4.4 . Is this due solely to other factions being in conflict? Is it due to massive amounts of combat bonds? A combination of both? Some unknown reason?

If the war ends in a tie, would the system keep all 8 minor factions or is it up in the air as to who gets booted?
Again, if it ends in a tie, it won't be for lack of trying but may prove to be useless to fight a war that's started this way.

 

[Starwolfe]

When the opponent is at 1% you steal that 1% basically.

The daily average forces them back to 1% tomorrow, and you can take it again.

If you take more - it drains from the faction controlling the system at that point.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

As of today, we're up to 5.6% from 4.4 . Is this due solely to other factions being in conflict? Is it due to massive amounts of combat bonds? A combination of both? Some unknown reason?

Yes - I would guess four of the other six being in conflict (five now, as of this tick), has helped a lot. Tir's a pretty busy system with a good mission selection so non-war factions probably get a fair bit of a boost from that.

If the war ends in a tie, would the system keep all 8 minor factions or is it up in the air as to who gets booted?

On previous occasions, it's kept all 8. Though you should only need to gain another 0.5% this tick to win outright, I think ...

 

[Jane Turner]

When the opponent is at 1% you steal that 1% basically.

The daily average forces them back to 1% tomorrow, and you can take it again.

If you take more - it drains from the faction controlling the system at that point.

That's a bit misleading Starwolfe.

There was a change - can't recall whether its 2.3 or 2.4. We've seen, and it was confirmed by Dav in the live stream linked up top, that the influence is calcuated during wars has changed. No longer its the combined influence locked and the two combatant struggle over a fixed pool between them. Now once one side is taken to 1% influence gains can be made at the expense of the other, non-warring factions. So there is plenty of point in fighting on. In fact the only reason to stop is becuase you don't want to overshoot a faction with an asset you want.

 

[Starwolfe]

Guess I wasn't paying attention then cause I don't remember that change.

I haven't been in a conflict that drove an opponent to 1% in a while tho. So i have yet to see the impact.

 

[the100thmonkey]

Yes - I would guess four of the other six being in conflict (five now, as of this tick), has helped a lot. Tir's a pretty busy system with a good mission selection so non-war factions probably get a fair bit of a boost from that.


On previous occasions, it's kept all 8. Though you should only need to gain another 0.5% this tick to win outright, I think ...

That depends on whether or not the factions invloved are native, to the best of my knowledge. If both factions are invasive, one of them will be removed. If the losing faction is native, I guess both will stay.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

That depends on whether or not the factions invloved are native, to the best of my knowledge. If both factions are invasive, one of them will be removed. If the losing faction is native, I guess both will stay.

On the previous occasions which ended in a draw, neither faction was native and both stayed. (Ogmar, for example, still has 8 factions as a result of that)

I'm not sure that you can get this sort of war versus a native faction in the first place, can you?

 

[Frankymole]

When does the war end, what difference in % influence is necessary? Or does it last the max length of 21 days? I'm not sure what determines the end of normal wars.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

When does the war end, what difference in % influence is necessary? Or does it last the max length of 21 days? I'm not sure what determines the end of normal wars.

So far as I can tell the usual 5% influence margin is needed to get an outright win, with a 4-day minimum length. However, instead of the 1-day ceasefire state after the asset change of a normal war, the losing faction can get instantly kicked out at the end of day 4, rather than the end of day 5, which means the winning faction drops out of the War state a day early too.

I've only seen two end in draws previously, I think. Both of them were seriously affected by bugs related to the "two conflicts at once" issue in pre-2.4 BGS, so might not be typical ... Galcop CDC's invasion of Ogmar was too early for me to have full records of it but went on quite a while [1], and Edge Fraternity's (second) invasion of Trakath the War phase took 14 days. I would assume in the absence of any other evidence that the maximum duration of an invasion War is not different to that of any other War.

[1] And wouldn't have been a draw at all if it hadn't been for bugs which caused it to go on long after GCDC had a 5% margin, so I really wouldn't rely on that one for data about the process.

 

[Starwolfe]

When does the war end, what difference in % influence is necessary? Or does it last the max length of 21 days? I'm not sure what determines the end of normal wars.

Wars have a minimum of 3 days, if a 5% gap is reached on day 4 its that reconciliation day, and the next is recovery.

The max only happens under frequent activity but no major gap is reached I think.
Typically for me it wildly varies on duration without that win %.

 

[Ryan Murdoc]

Wars have a minimum of 3 days, if a 5% gap is reached on day 4 its that reconciliation day, and the next is recovery.

Our experience:

If a >5% (War) or >3% (Civil War) gap is achieved on Day 3 of the live State = assets (if available) change hands. The State will be gone on the next tick (Day 4). Recovery is only 24h as well, so the very next day another conflict can go pending.

Unless that was what you were saying and my sleepy mind didn't read it correctly. If so I apologise.

 

[Starwolfe]

Our experience:

If a >5% (War) or >3% (Civil War) gap is achieved on Day 3 of the live State = assets (if available) change hands. The State will be gone on the next tick (Day 4). Recovery is only 24h as well, so the very next day another conflict can go pending.

Unless that was what you were saying and my sleepy mind didn't read it correctly. If so I apologise.

Sleepy I guess.

The gap has to be met after the 3rd day.
Doesn't matter if on the 3rd day its less than that gap.
It jsut has to show it on the 4th day for it to end.

 

[Frankymole]

Nomads of Nevermore have 1.0%, and Alberta Industries have 6.7%.

Does that mean the war has been won?

It's more than a 5.0% gap, and the war has been going on for a couple of weeks.

The mission boards etc still show the War state as active, so presumably this kind of invasion war also has a cool-down day, like a normal war.

 

[Starwolfe]

Nomads of Nevermore have 1.0%, and Alberta Industries have 6.7%.

Does that mean the war has been won?

It's more than a 5.0% gap, and the war has been going on for a couple of weeks.

The mission boards etc still show the War state as active, so presumably this kind of invasion war also has a cool-down day, like a normal war.

If its been a couple of weeks at that gap, bug report that.

Looking on EliteBGS I only see the last 10 days, and the gap hasn't been over 5% till just recently. Check back in a couple days it should resolve now that the 5% gap was reached.