Finding Rare Materials - A Scientific Approach

In general, the same variables that influence Metallicity of a system seem to also influence the frequency of rare spawns rates. This makes sense because Metallicity is also a measure of the age of a star. Younger stars tend to be more Metallic for reasons stated below. The highest drop rate I've seen was on a HMCP (not a MR) planet that was only 15 million years old. Tripping over metallic meteorites chalked full of rares were clustered together almost in same screen, etc.

Below is a list of known and suspected factors that influence the spawn rate of rare metals, eg Metallicity and the likelihood of meteorites. So if you are looking for a simple hint just skip to the tldr hint at bottom. I will update this as we learn more, and more of these finding are corroborated and tested by myself and other explorers.

Pertinant metallicity/spawn rate variables:

-Age of Parent Star (a weak correlation for all stars, but for VERY young stars = more Metals and more Meteorites because they are still in the bombardment epoch and generally have much higher metallicity, once they are past a certain age, there will be no correlation because all systems are the same)
-Mass of parent star, but only to the extent that it increases the odds of having planets/meteorites
-More meteorites means more rares because most of heavier elements will have moved beneath the surface when the planet was still molten during early formation
-General resultant Metallicity of the system (this is not a seperate variable, but related to age by previous super novae seeding of the current system). Ergo, not all young systems have planets. But the ones that do should have heavier elements than older systems... yada yada
-spawn rates are consistent across pilots, eg the same set of metals should spawn for all pilots
-distance from human space, means less humans have trawled the surface (of course this is realistically inconsistent with the the previous point, and the points below, but too much realism puts the F U in fun)
-resetting the instance flying away in SC and re-landing seems to reset the spawn rate for rares/metallic meteorites, yes they can dry up in given patch of ground. Which leads to...
-driving around for a VERY LONG TIME (eg >50km) will increase the chance of finding rares, which is just another way of saying that rares exist even on older population I systems, even if they are generally less common (1-2 meteors per landing)


Things that **should** influence spawn rate (needs more testing):


-mass of the planet:
(bigger planets make a bigger collision target and perturb objects more to attract meteors). Fun fact, the "collision cross section" is much bigger than the planet's actual diameter
-presence of an asteroid belt:
(especially for younger stars where the orbits are less stable)
-presence of gas giants:
big objects will deflect more space debris into inner solar system, thus hurling junk at the smaller planets.
-number of (metallic) planets: this not only indicates a high Metallicity but also means that any loose debris will be perturbed towards one of the bodies. This could increase meteor spawn rates on mostly icy systems too. But the meteors should be less interesting.
-surface coloration:
darker or odd colored veined areas seem to have more spawns. White areas seem to have lower spawns.
-terrain type:
this may not be a huge factor since meteorites can land anywhere on a planet, even flat open plains, or the side of a cliff. Oddly craters are not the best place to look because most the roid is vaporized on impact. This is somewhat initially confirmed, since all but 1 of the meteorites that I have found was well outside of a crater. That being said, if a planet is tidally locked, look on the side with the most craters (assuming that's a even a terrain feature).
-volcanism:
older planets with tectonic activity will likely have absorbed the meteorites from the bombardment epoch. However, slightly less rare (non meteorite) metals should have a higher frequency since surface churn will bring heavy metals back up to the surface
-proximity to super novae:
the neutron fields would be a great place to test this theory. In particular by visiting young planets that are *close* to neutron stars.
-galactic location:
in general new star formation is happening in the disk and the arms of the galaxy, and less so in the core. However, the core is much older and more dense (hence the increased presence of neutron stars), so the metallicity should be higher there in general and even older stars should be more metallic than young stars in the outer disk. Any young stars near the core however, should be VERY metallic.



TL;DR HINT: the Ideal location to search for rare materials would be massive T Tauri stars (you can tell the mass right away by the color). But really any star that is only a few million years old should suffice. Not only will they be guaranteed to have high metallicity and meteorites due to their relative youth, if there are any planets, the closest planets will very likely be devoid of atmospheres due the the strong T Tauri solar winds.
 
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Searching in a straight line, i.e. just the one bearing, and veering off when needed, then back on that bearing ?

Or search a grid or an area?
 
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Searching in a straight line, i.e. just the one bearing, and veering off when needed, then back on that bearing ?

Or search a grid or an area?

Doubling back on a previously visited area seems to yield on common spawns. This needs verifying though. It's more fun to (try to) go in a straight line anyway. ;)
 
I always explore in a straight line, only veering off for the signals with scratchy sounds. So far (1310 km surface travel) I have not seen any patterns emerge. It's very random and can be totally different after logging back in at the same spot. I did find a curious outlier last night, SWOILZ FH-U E3-9 1, clusters of outcrops everywhere, only outcrops, no meteorites or other things with scratchy sounds. (The clicking signals were still there too) Eventually an outcrop spawned the very rares as well, yet driving into and over most of the giant 4.2 km deep crater at the pole, not a single meteorite.
The star is 368 million years old, metallic and metal rich ringed 100% metal rich 1.95g planet binary paired with another 100% metal rich planet. Zero asteroids.

Anyway normally it seems to be mostly luck. Don't find a very rare for an hour, then find 6 of them in 5 minutes, then nothing again on the same planet.
 
Ziljan, you write that your list of "Pertinant metallicity/spawn rate variables" is based on "known and suspected factors", but don't actually provide any hard data, as far as I can see. Can you confirm whether you are basing this on an assumption that spawn rates will follow real-universe expectations, or on statistical evidence gathered from Elite? While it would be nice if Elite follows reality (or at least, follows what current science predicts), we don't know that it does, at least for the moment.

Regarding search methods, my strategy, such as it is, amounts to a drunkards walk - mostly random directions chasing signals, given a directional bias by heading towards flat areas when no useful signals are present, and following a preferred heading when there is a choice of 'flat' terrain. I've seen no evidence that terrain actually affects spawning, and would rather cover ground quickly, while covering new ground. This has to be more interesting than running round in circles in a crater, and boredom leads to inattention, which leads to accidents. And when my mind starts to wander I recall the ship, dock and log out for a break - this seems to cause respawning.
 
I tend to think that simple RNG factor are in place and it's all less complicated than OP suggests. The only thing I see as constant is the 3-2-1 rule, and the fact that metallic meteorites and outcrop 2 gives you the best chance to find VR and R mats.
On one thing I agree with OP: it seems they have implemetnted a RNG constant by woch if you try to respawn a site where you have found metallic meteorites x3, it almost always respawns bronzite or meso, giving you crap chances to stock on rares with easy resetting instances.

I find driving in a straight line for several hundred km is the best way to spin dices for you. Logging in-out and going SC away seems to give worst results, but it might be just luck.

Also it seems that Metal Rich planets don't yeld Sulphur and Phsphur, so if you are in a lomg range expedition, your SRV is low on fuel and you don't have spare refuelling mats, before landing on a metal rich it is advised to pay a visit to any other kind of landable planet.
 
Ziljan, you write that your list of "Pertinant metallicity/spawn rate variables" is based on "known and suspected factors", but don't actually provide any hard data, as far as I can see. Can you confirm whether you are basing this on an assumption that spawn rates will follow real-universe expectations, or on statistical evidence gathered from Elite? While it would be nice if Elite follows reality (or at least, follows what current science predicts), we don't know that it does, at least for the moment.

This is a WIP and is by no means the final word. I am still in the process of collecting my own data, and ongoing parsing of others data for whatever is relevant to the astrophysical theory-based criteria. So the current prelim is based on a combination of personally collected spawn rates per planet complete with planetary and system data, and also on elementary "availability" without specific spawn figures provided by other players who were looking for unscientific patterns game related patterns. In particular the Age of star is often completely ignored by explorers tracking the frequency of rare elements. When it is recorded it is not cross referenced with the actual elements found... which makes the data almost useless for tracking metallicity. Also the rares mostly spawn in meteorites, which says more about the system that it does about any given planet or terrain type. So people looking for meteorites by planet type/terrain are going to massively disappointed by a seeming random distribution of mats.Unfortunately the data base I am using is notes on Captains Log and other programs, so it would take some time to transfer the data to a more "printout" friendly version like a spreadsheet. Plus I hate Excel, since I use it all day at work. And I love Genar's program. I'll have to ask him if it's possible to update it with a Materials log, and screen print outs.


I tend to think that simple RNG factor are in place and it's all less complicated than OP suggests. .

My suggestion was based entirely around the metallicity of a parent star increasing the odds for better RNG results on rares. It doesn't get much simpler than that. Everything else in the OP is merely factors that increase the odds of getting meteorites and limits the seeming "randomness" of rares distribution, which is really just randomness of system-type distribution and a large number of variables. The goal here is to limit the variables to reduce the search area and save time.

Besides, Frontier has confirmed that the reason Thargoid barnacles spawn in star formation nebulae is because they are looking for rare mats. Star formation nebulae by definition have the youngest stars. Which means that younger stars are more likely to have rare mats even from a pure gameplay perspective. Frontier is trying to merge science and gameplay here. So Kudos to them :)

Also it seems that Metal Rich planets don't yeld Sulphur and Phsphur, so if you are in a lomg range expedition, your SRV is low on fuel and you don't have spare refuelling mats, before landing on a metal rich it is advised to pay a visit to any other kind of landable planet.

Mercury has Phosphorus and Sulfur. So does Eranin 2. So I don't think we can't make blanket statements about specific element types by planet type. I think these are more system wide phenomena, and of course RNG. But if you are looking for refuel mats, I have found you can increase your odds of finding fuel by using a fuel mat recipe... ugh, I know, but it seems to bump the spawn rate just like resetting the instance and flying to a new location.
 
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I'm really glad you boosted past that truck on the highway :)

"Thargoid barnacles" - do you have a source?

:D me too!

It was somewhere in the 600 odd pages of the latest Canonn Research thread, a couple days before the discovery of the first barnacle. I believe it was MB if you want to search by dev posts. It wasn't just one post though, but instead a series of hints and cryptic confirmation of other people suggestions that the thargoids were looking for metals to build their UAs etc.
 
Star age is recorded in the Google sheet. It might be possible to look at that and the ratio of rare materials to the other materials and test the hypothesis that way?
 
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Start age is recorded in the Google sheet. It might be possible to look at that and the ratio of rare materials to the other materials and test the hypothesis that way?


As I said above, it is only listed in the Systems tab, which does not contain any materials frequency information. Nor does this page cross link with information on other pages. They are effectively separate databases, and the systems tab is pretty much ignored atm with only ~200 entries. Meanwhile the World and Log tab with the potentially useful information has every thing EXCEPT age, and more than 1000 combined entries.
 
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Mercury has Phosphorus and Sulfur. So does Eranin 2. So I don't think we can't make blanket statements about specific element types by planet type.

I agree that we have to be wary about making blanket statements, but both of those planets are "special" as they're in extremely important systems.

Everyone, I know I go on about this but I can't stress enough that some systems, particularly hand-placed systems, do not play by the usual rules - either of RL science or of ED proc-gen science - when it comes to planet surface temperature, which in turn makes me suspect all other planetary characteristics in those systems. And even the proc-gen sectors can be subject to tampering as we recently learned with respect to the suppression of the bright AA-A H stars in a stripe horizontally and vertically across the galaxy.

In short: we are NOT dealing with a uniform star system generation and we ought to take careful note of whether a planet is in a hand-placed or a proc-gen system before including its data in our analysis. It could be that the same rules apply to both but it's not a given.
 
I agree that we have to be wary about making blanket statements, but both of those planets are "special" as they're in extremely important systems.

In short: we are NOT dealing with a uniform star system generation and we ought to take careful note of whether a planet is in a hand-placed or a proc-gen system before including its data in our analysis. It could be that the same rules apply to both but it's not a given.

This is probably correct. I have a suspicion that the rules change depending on more than just Bubble vs Black spawn rates. I suspect (hope?) there will be area specific spawn rates. So there might be whole sections of the galaxy that have very low refuel mat availability for instance, but that are also exceeding high in jumponium.
 
Sorry, but I'm not seeing any actual data here - some interesting hypotheses, but that's all. Accordingly I'm going to work with the null hypothesis - that distribution of materials is random, beyond the 3-2-1 rule which seems fairly well established and the clear trend of not finding Sulphur or Phosphorus on metal rich planets (as has been suggested, Mercury may be an exception because it is a 'hand-crafted' planet). Lacking better data, my search strategy will be based on the accessibility of bodies, and on their G - there isn't much point in finding materials on planets that nobody is going to want to land on.
 
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After over 2000km of SRV prospecting, I personally believe that it's all just random with regards to node density and type. I've had a planet that was loaded with meteorites, but then I logged off from the SRV on the surface, and then logged back in to the same planet and coordinates only to have outcrops galore and nothing else. The only constant I've consistently witnessed is the 3-2-1 pattern which is fixed for each planet. However, I admit that my hunch could be wrong, and node types and densitys might be influenced by other factors. If they are though then it's only a small influence and not a strong factor.
 
After over 2000km of SRV prospecting, I personally believe that it's all just random with regards to node density and type. I've had a planet that was loaded with meteorites, but then I logged off from the SRV on the surface, and then logged back in to the same planet and coordinates only to have outcrops galore and nothing else. The only constant I've consistently witnessed is the 3-2-1 pattern which is fixed for each planet. However, I admit that my hunch could be wrong, and node types and densitys might be influenced by other factors. If they are though then it's only a small influence and not a strong factor.


You could be right, and my idea is currently in the Hypothesis phase. It will take more than a single cmdr to collect data necessary to test it out fully, just as with the 3 2 1 rule. I'd say we'd need at least 100 data point at a minimum. 1000 to be sure. In my tests so far, I have have about 15 planets in 10 systems in places ranging from age 15 Myr to 2.8 Gyrs and the trend for spawn rates and spawn density has been consistent at least in my admittedly small sample set. If the rates are impacted by region of space (which they should be), then that could throw the numbers off, so if you are going to test it out, I recommend you stay in the same general region of space, and not compare systems that are 1000s of LY apart. And also that you give each planet at least 30 minutes.

For comparison, on young systems with more massive stars, I found clusters of rare mats with in 1-15 minutes. And I found as many VERY RARES as I did COMMON elements. But in "older" systems with massive stars greater than 1GY old, it took 30-60 minutes to find even 1 metallic meteorite and the rare spawn rates where exponentially lower. Granted metallicity and spawn rate won't rise smoothly with reduced age, but it is one indicator that seems to work upon initial results. Just like finding earthlikes at G and F stars. Of course you can find them "anywhere", but you have better luck if you look in the easy spots. Likewise with finding rares even in the same system. It varies, but only because the odds are long to begin with.

Here is a sample from the youngest star I visited from 60 minutes of randomly driving around a moderately hilly area:

Very common
C 14
P 6
Fe 29
S 16
Ni 18

Common
As 3
Se 6
Vd 7


Rare
Sn 6
Cd 5

Very Rare
Y 4
 
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Lomg story short: not enough data has been collected to have a failproof way to understand prospecting. For now I'm ok with the random idea, also becouse DW has menu goals, and we can't really prospect to the bone.

This bbeing saud, it's very possible that indeed variables we are not aware yet are in functions.

This is why ziljan and other explorers can do a scientific research and see if we are missing something (likely) becouse there are ways to attach data to a result. So we have to go on and try everything in evry direction intill we will have enough data to take reasonable sums.

from now on I will personally try to note star age to seeif i find consistency in what ziljan says, but i cannot ask all my prospectors to do the same, they already have resistences in noting down star type, bar the age! I'm conducting an easy public searching that has more of a public service utitlity, and has already somebody else told me, "what you are doing is laughalble". Indeed it is, from a scientific point of wiev I am discarding a whole lot of data that might make sense, and morover i accept entries only with many restrictions.

It is not laughable when a player tells me "I had to hours in total, and couldn't find matsby myself, but using your thread i'm stocking up. You are releving me a lot of work that wouldn't have been fun for me, and thanks to you the expedition is smoother"

So DW might have been a top notch scientific study, if all players were dedicated in prospecting like the pro. A good
number of expedition member are at first experience outside the bubble.
 
As I said above, it is only listed in the Systems tab, which does not contain any materials frequency information. Nor does this page cross link with information on other pages. They are effectively separate databases, and the systems tab is pretty much ignored atm with only ~200 entries. Meanwhile the World and Log tab with the potentially useful information has every thing EXCEPT age, and more than 1000 combined entries.

I added the age of the star to the Worlds tab, which also has total and % of the various types of materials found. I then summed the % of VR found on each planet and put that in another column and used the 'correlate' function to see if there was a linear correlation between the star age and % of VR found. I noticed there were some odd entries (worlds where only VR had been found, so probably someone got lucky and didn't continue to survey) and I removed those (there were three of them). The resulting correlation was -0.0579 and change, which does slightly favor younger stars giving out a higher % of VR, but is really low and (IMO) not at all conclusive.

I'm not a statistician, so I could be making a mistake. I've left the columns on the World tab in case anyone else wants to take a look.

PS There are relatively few entries in the System tab because each system can have multiple worlds and each world can have multiple surveys and each survey can have multiple log entries.
 
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