Frontier's Player Retention Strategy

[VR CMDR Novindus]

The recent community update was met with the expected range of responses, some happy, some disappointed but hopeful, and some clearly upset.

One of the recurring concerns I observed is regarding what impact the delay on the next major update will have on the number of concurrent players during this waiting period, alongside the predictions that they will dramatically decline.

Looking at the recent news bulletins gives some idea of the strategy Frontier has employed to address that concern, and it is multi-pronged.

The first part of the strategy is something that already happened, which was the Beyond series of free updates in 2018. These were intended to revitalise gameplay, and paid particular attention to exploration and mining. We know now from the subsequent surge in player numbers that it was a successful series.
The additional benefit to Frontier as a company is that providing these generally well received updates for free built up a measure of good will from the community overall, which will come in useful now that players have been asked to wait over 16 months for the next major release, which will be a paid one.

The announcement of the community update may have overshadowed or taken attention away from a news bulletin also posted by community manager Will Flanagan just a day prior, which details changes to the background simulation in Elite. This is a sore point for a lot of players who would appreciate seeing it fixed and improved.
Like the community update post, the title of the background simulation post was listed as one of three, which indicates that work on the BGS is ongoing, as mentioned in the post itself. Testing out these awaited changes will likely keep those players engaged who've been requesting that the issues with the BGS be addressed, and they are not a few.

Next is the currently mysterious mention of development supported events. There isn't a lot of detail at the moment, but the way I read it, it sounds like we will have developer curated bespoke events which themselves may include a number of community goals. These events are said to involve scenarios and new assets, and have a more meaningful impact on the game and the BGS, as well as catering to different player types, whilst being more rewarding. This is a strong indicator that despite the delay on the more major content, there are efforts being made to ensure that the game world will not remain static or stagnant, or feel always as routine as it currently does. This is another aspect that if done well, could keep players logging back in.

Further to this, regular updates have been announced for the game in the meantime, the first of which will focus primarily on new player experience, which we all know can be a little overwhelming or daunting, particularly without help. Not much is said on what form the new player welcoming experiences will take, but it is hoped that new players will be eased into the controls, mechanics, and systems in the game, possibly with some demonstrative custom starter missions. Quality of life improvements will also be included in these first updates, but I think the focus on new players will help early retention by breaking things down for those just starting, and will ultimately result in a more skilled player base down the track.

The second batch of new updates is said to include exciting new features and content, which according to how they're scheduling things, could be seen by quarter four of this year or first quarter of 2020, depending on when the first of the regular updates is released. While some existing players may not stick around while waiting for the above mentioned upcoming additions to the game, it's likely that many of those will log back in to see the new content from this second batch, and run across the other changes made in their absence as well, which could lead to some continued gameplay for a while at least, or even through the lead up to the major content.

It's worth it to mention that to coincide with all this activity, also announced by Will Flanagan near the end of last month, these forums are going to be revamped with the purpose of improving functionality and ease of navigation, as well as making bug reporting and tracking easier. While this won't have much immediate impact on player numbers inside the game, the ability for the community to better engage with Frontier community staff and with each other outside the game, may have a positive communications impact from news and updates being easier to find and keep up to date with, and with bug reports being easier to make and follow up.

Lastly, and underscoring all of the above is the tantalising speculation over what exactly this major new update is going to include. Now that we've been told that it's so ambitious that it needed to be pushed back to the second half of 2020, imagination about scope and features is running wild. Frontier have said that as development continues we will get more information about what is in the works, and that is all the more reason to stay tuned and prepare.

Once you're able to get past that initial disappointment about the wait, it's clear that there's a lot going on with Elite in the short and longer term. Once that starts to sink in for more players, and once it becomes the focus as updates start rolling in, I don't foresee problems with player retention spelling the doom of Elite.

 

[Lightspeed]

We just don't know. And because we don't know, "doom" gets the upper hand. It is up to FD to counter the doom with details. Otherwise it's all speculation.

 

[VR CMDR Novindus]

We just don't know. And because we don't know, "doom" gets the upper hand. It is up to FD to counter the doom with details. Otherwise it's all speculation.

Well, that's a very "glass is half empty" perspective. As for details, it helps to know what's in the works, but as a developer I know that there are stages in development where the final release of a feature as it's planned isn't yet confirmed and can change or even be dropped, so announcing it before confirmation could come with its own set of problems.

As for speculation, a good part of this is my own, but it's the basis which is the key factor here, and which is being discussed - namely the measures in place, which I think are sufficient to hold or bring back soon anyone who generally enjoys playing the game.
Others may point to different indicators that hint at a contrary outcome.

 

[Jenner]

We just don't know. And because we don't know, "doom" gets the upper hand. It is up to FD to counter the doom with details. Otherwise it's all speculation.

Pretty much this.

 

[ForeverN00b]

It's not the wait that's disappointing, it's actually kind of refreshing. Look at FO76, Anthem, and a whole other host of recent digital dumpster fires as precautionary tales regarding rushed release.

One thing that DOES worry me is more 'developer involvement' regarding CGs. The problem with this is it gives the game a much shorter shelf life should it become a cornerstone of gameplay. I'll give you two examples: Gran Turismo 3 versus GT 6. GT3 is still, 100% to this day, functional out of the box because the game came with the fully fleshed content out of the box (a foreign concept these days). GT6 OTOH is a steaming pile of **** without it's weekly updates. In other words, a game from year 2000 is still playable in it's $60 release form, a game from 14 years later is not playable because the latter banked on the concept of continuous human development....i.e. 'games a a service'.

Gameplay loops that don't require hand-crafted developer interaction (on a continuing basis) are better for everyone in the long run. Hopefully FD knows this as they look at the videogame landscape and the tanking stock prices of EA and Activision. I think this game is mature enough that a radical microtransaction scheme is out of the question, but FD does have to pay their bills. Having daily or weekly dev time devoted to CGs beyond what we get will only encourage MTXs. Long lasting content built once, properly, can pay off far better IMO.

 

[Speedcuffs]

Won't someone think of the steam charts!

 

[StuartGT]

Excellent write-up OP

 

[VR CMDR Novindus]

It's not the wait that's disappointing, it's actually kind of refreshing. Look at FO76, Anthem, and a whole other host of recent digital dumpster fires as precautionary tales regarding rushed release.

One thing that DOES worry me is more 'developer involvement' regarding CGs. The problem with this is it gives the game a much shorter shelf life should it become a cornerstone of gameplay. I'll give you two examples: Gran Turismo 3 versus GT 6. GT3 is still, 100% to this day, functional out of the box because the game came with the fully fleshed content out of the box (a foreign concept these days). GT6 OTOH is a steaming pile of **** without it's weekly updates. In other words, a game from year 2000 is still playable in it's $60 release form, a game from 14 years later is not playable because the latter banked on the concept of continuous human development....i.e. 'games a a service'.

Gameplay loops that don't require hand-crafted developer interaction are better for everyone in the long run. Hopefully FD knows this as they look at the videogame landscape and the tanking stock prices of EA and Activision. I think this game is mature enough that a radical microtransaction scheme is out of the question, but FD does have to pay their bills. Having daily or weekly dev time devoted to CGs beyond what we get will only encourage MTXs. Long lasting content built once, properly, can pay off far better IMO.

I wasn't disappointed myself, but many people were/are, and I can't blame them for wanting content sooner.

That's an interesting point about the development supported events though. I didn't really consider that. If it became the cornerstone of gameplay as you say, that would indeed pose a problem, particularly with how to maintain it. However, and as mentioned, given that there are a number of tracks for game enhancement being pursued in parallel, and a major and ambitious update coming in Q2 2020, the hope is that there will be plenty of engaging gameplay outside of these development supported events.

As for the gameplay loops, the complaints about those is what seems to be the impetus for these developer involved events, as players found the game too routine and samey. It's difficult to have varied engaging gameplay generated procedurally, so having that in part, and custom designed events in part may end up giving a good balance. It's an MMO after all, and not a single player campaign game, so the gameplay loops will be played over and over and over.

 

[CAPT. Ho Chi Minge]

Won't someone think of the steam charts!

To be honest it has been what? Almost a week and not a peep .. usually see stealthie with a steam chart memorial thread.

 

[Stealthie]

To be brutal, nothing in the OP is going to do a lot to retain players.

Let's face it, there's 2 things in ED that create a surge in player numbers:-
1) New content.
2) Gold rushes.

The recent update to mining did a good job of invoking #2 but, even so, we're already seeing a reduction in player numbers again.

In a way, mining is a victim of it's own success.
At first players dive into it to earn the credits they need to do stuff.
After that, they stick with it 'cos they figure it's too good to last and it's bound to get nerfed.
Then they realise it isn't going to get nerfed (significantly) and the fervour begins to cool.
Finally, they get bored of it.

Added to which, the success of mining is also likely to undermine alternative opportunities.

If FDev create, say, a "super CG" which will pay double or triple the usual rate... who cares?
When I can go mining and earn Cr60m/hr, why would I spend a week doing a CG that might (if I'm lucky) pay me Cr100m?

Sure, an "event" of some kind might generate some interest for it's duration but that's going to take consiredable effort to put together.

Fundamentally, it's unlikely that FDev will ever be able to introduce anything that provides enough credits to entice people to play.

Which leaves #1.

New content is, however, a perpetual treadmill.
A dev' needs to keep on creating new content (or allow others to create new content) in order to retain interest.
And that's something FDev is unlikely to provide significant amounts of in the near future.

New scenarios? New missions?
Honestly, FDev might as well just save themselves the effort because nobody cares.
They either need to regularly come up with something shiny to hold people's attention for a short while, or they need to come up with a single thing that'll keep players interested for a long period.

Like I said in a different thread, what they should have done was set up some kind of long-term exploration-related thing at the end of last year.
Have Ram Tah announce that there's a bunch of Guardian Beacons scattered around the galaxy and finding them all will make something amazing happen.
Alternatively, perhaps, leave something interesting in the path of DW2 which, once found, would give players other things to look for for the next 12 months.
Trouble is, even if FDev jumped on that now, and released it in 3 months, although it'd still be welcome, it would have a whiff of "damage control" about it.

*EDIT*

Lastly, of course, there's the people who simply don't need anything to retain their interest.
They're players who simply like flying about in pretend spaceships.
That is, to a greater or lesser extent, all of us.
Thing there is, we don't actually need any new baubles to retain our interest so FDev might as well simply not bother with them and, instead, commit fully (aside from whoever's responsible for bug-fixes, of course) to the 2020 update.

 

[VR CMDR Novindus]

To be brutal, nothing in the OP is going to do a lot to retain players.

Let's face it, there's 2 things in ED that create a surge in player numbers:-
1) New content.
2) Gold rushes.

Given that I did mention the new content planned for the shorter and longer terms, and given that it's more than likely that some new lucrative exercise will be included, there's seems to be some contradiction here, at least on the surface of it.

The recent update to mining did a good job of invoking #2 but, even so, we're already seeing a reduction in player numbers again.


In a way, mining is a victim of it's own success.
At first players dive into it to earn the credits they need to do stuff.
After that, they stick with it 'cos they figure it's too good to last and it's bound to get nerfed.
Then they realise it isn't going to get nerfed (significantly) and the fervour begins to cool.
Finally, they get bored of it.

Added to which, the success of mining is also likely to undermine alternative opportunities.

If FDev create, say, a "super CG" which will pay double or triple the usual rate... who cares?
When I can go mining and earn Cr60m/hr, why would I spend a week doing a CG that might (if I'm lucky) pay me Cr100m?

A good analysis. What it really sounds like though is that Frontier need to re-balance how credits are earned, whilst still having gold rushes for the different career paths which are limited by either time or other conditions. At the same time, they'd need to introduce some proper end-game credit sinks to make some of the grinding worth it, and make hunting for gold rushes more meaningful. As we have almost no idea what is coming in the planned updates, we don't know if any of that will be satisfactorily addressed. Nothing to do but wait.

Sure, an "event" of some kind might generate some interest for it's duration but that's going to take consiredable effort to put together.

Fundamentally, it's unlikely that FDev will ever be able to introduce anything that provides enough credits to entice people to play.

Which leaves #1.

New content is, however, a perpetual treadmill.
A dev' needs to keep on creating new content (or allow others to create new content) in order to retain interest.
And that's something FDev is unlikely to provide significant amounts of in the near future.

New scenarios? New missions?
Honestly, FDev might as well just save themselves the effort because nobody cares.
They either need to regularly come up with something shiny to hold people's attention for a short while, or they need to come up with a single thing that'll keep players interested for a long period.

Like I said in a different thread, what they should have done was set up some kind of long-term exploration-related thing at the end of last year.
Have Ram Tah announce that there's a bunch of Guardian Beacons scattered around the galaxy and finding them all will make something amazing happen.
Alternatively, perhaps, leave something interesting in the path of DW2 which, once found, would give players other things to look for for the next 12 months.
Trouble is, even if FDev jumped on that now, and released it in 3 months, although it'd still be welcome, it would have a whiff of "damage control" about it.

Apparently some big things are in the works, so time will tell if they're shiny enough to hold players' attention for longer periods.
I do like your idea however about scattered Guardian Beacons and things along those lines. Maybe the dev supported events might give us something similar.

*EDIT*

Lastly, of course, there's the people who simply don't need anything to retain their interest.
They're players who simply like flying about in pretend spaceships.
That is, to a greater or lesser extent, all of us.
Thing there is, we don't actually need any new baubles to retain our interest so FDev might as well simply not bother with them and, instead, commit fully (aside from whoever's responsible for bug-fixes, of course) to the 2020 update.

Regarding the common denominator, i.e. people who like flying about in pretend spaceships, there is that.
But I have to disagree about the interim updates, as I've seen many players complain about BGS issues, pending QoL updates, and new player experience. Also, no one is going to say no to any new content to whet their appetites before the major release.

A lot of players have followed the progress of Elite's evolution, and a lot of people are players of the older versions, so for many of them, keeping them interested with the story of its development is encouragement to keep logging in.
I'm not a grinder in the game myself, so things like gold rushes and quick money schemes don't draw me too much. There are others like me who just like to try out whatever, or else stick to career paths they enjoy, so any kind of new content or events is a nice change of pace.

 

[Stealthie]

Regarding the common denominator, i.e. people who like flying about in pretend spaceships, there is that.
But I have to disagree about the interim updates, as I've seen many players complain about BGS issues, pending QoL updates, and new player experience. Also, no one is going to say no to any new content to whet their appetites before the major release.

A lot of players have followed the progress of Elite's evolution, and a lot of people are players of the older versions, so for many of them, keeping them interested with the story of its development is encouragement to keep logging in.
I'm not a grinder in the game myself, so things like gold rushes and quick money schemes don't draw me too much. There are others like me who just like to try out whatever, or else stick to career paths they enjoy, so any kind of new content or events is a nice change of pace.

Fair comment.

I was, perhaps, being a bit hyperbolic but I stand by what I said.

Thing is, I do agree that improvements/fixes to things like the BGS and PP would be welcome but I don't think they're especially important to player-retention.
I might be wrong but I suspect the people who're into that stuff will stick at it regardless of how broken it is (as long as it doesn't get worse).

Beyond that, as I said, I think an "event" might generate a bit of short-term interest but, again, I don't think they particularly help with player-retention.
In fact, depending on the "event" (think Salami or Gnosis) I suspect they can actually harm it.
Having been subjected to either of those train-wrecks, I suspect a lot of people decided to take some time off afterwards.

It will certainly be interesting to see what FDev come up with to keep people's interest over the next 18 months though.

 

[metatheurgist]

We just don't know. And because we don't know, "doom" gets the upper hand. It is up to FD to counter the doom with details. Otherwise it's all speculation.

Nope. FD don't have to counter anything. They just have to stay as an operating business and produce a product they can sell in 2020. Forum mewling is irrelevant.

 

[rhiz]

The first part of the strategy is something that already happened, which was the Beyond series of free updates in 2018. These were intended to revitalise gameplay, and paid particular attention to exploration and mining. We know now from the subsequent surge in player numbers that it was a successful series.

Overall, a thoughtful post Novindus. Personally, I'd question whether the Beyond updates have revitalised gameplay sufficiently to sustain that surge for 18 months - there simply isn't enough depth there in my view. The variety of surface POIs for example is pretty woeful as far as I can tell, and I struggle to understand why they haven't introduced more to compliment the new discovery tools (the existing assets really aren't very complicated - any competent 3D artist could double the number in a few weeks).

To me the Beyond updates felt like a series of welcome quality of life improvements in preparation for something more far-reaching, rather than anything that fundamentally recaptures my interest in the game here and now. I've been playing for around 1800 hrs and I've been feeling very listless recently, so I was really hoping for something big this year. The only milestone that I'm yet to achieve is combat Elite, but I'm finding my rate of progression soul-destroying. I'm naturally drawn to exploration and have made my mark with plenty of firsts, but I'm confronted by endless repetition in the vain search for something unexpected.

I'm optimistic about the future update but 18 months is an awfully long time, so unless these mysterious new events prove to be particularly compelling, I may well take a significant break in the interim. This sounds like a really negative post - I'm still invested, I still like the game, but I'm just disappointed in the rate and scope of development so far. As people have said though, much remains to be seen.

 

[Stealthie]

To me the Beyond updates felt like a series of welcome quality of life improvements in preparation for something more far-reaching, rather than anything that fundamentally recaptures my interest in the game here and now.

See, that's my biggest disappointment for Beyond.

It's like (with exploration in particular) they gave us a bunch of tools but forgot to include anything to really do with them.

The FSS just means it takes longer to do some of the stuff you could already do while also negating the gameplay required to investigate specific planets and there's some extra stuff floating around in space which, presumably, you'd still have been able to find using the old disco-scanner.
The new DSS gets a pass here cos it does actually provide a new way to find surface POIs... which were already there.

FDev seem to have a habit of creating "stuff" rather than creating "gameplay".
It's all things that you can see/do once and then tick it off a list.
They seem to struggle to create things that players might have a reason to do and then keep on doing.

 

[VR CMDR Novindus]

Overall, a thoughtful post Novindus. Personally, I'd question whether the Beyond updates have revitalised gameplay sufficiently to sustain that surge for 18 months - there simply isn't enough depth there in my view.

Not on its own. At least not for all players. The hope is, as you say, that these development supported events and the upcoming new content before the major release will keep existing players logging in, while the work on new player experience may facilitate lasting adoption from people coming in new to the game.

 

[Troz]

Lastly, of course, there's the people who simply don't need anything to retain their interest.
They're players who simply like flying about in pretend spaceships.
That is, to a greater or lesser extent, all of us.
Thing there is, we don't actually need any new baubles to retain our interest so FDev might as well simply not bother with them and, instead, commit fully (aside from whoever's responsible for bug-fixes, of course) to the 2020 update.

Well, that's pretty much me. I've tried getting into story-based games and it's rare for me to stay interested enough to complete one. However if I get bored with what I'm currently doing in Elite, then I'll give it a break for a bit, and come back and try something different. But the basic flying-a-spaceship mechanic is sufficiently well done that I don't tire of it.

That being said, there are lots of things that would enrich the experience further for me. Things which will take a lot of work. Which is why, on consideration, I'm not upset by the latest announcement. There are enough things that I still want to try in the current game to keep me going, on and off, till late next year. And the potential for a more intensively immersive experience to come.

I wonder what the top-end graphics cards will be capable of by late next year? Better start saving.

 

[sollisb]

Nope. FD don't have to counter anything. They just have to stay as an operating business and produce a product they can sell in 2020. Forum mewling is irrelevant.

Nothing could be further from the truth my friend..

18 months of nothing will lead to complete hatred from the game. 18 months is a long time to sit waiting to know what 'might' be coming down the frontier tubes. And that's not to mention that the current bugs from the previous release(s) and by and large still untouched.

18 months is a long time for players to pick up new titles and forget about Elite. What they won't forget is the prevalent toxicity by both the complainers and the defending white knights.

Since it's release, Frontier have proven time and time again, they cannot do clean releases. There is nothing, absolutely nothing that persuades me otherwise than what ever they produce in 2 years time will be another mess of bugs.

You are correct that FD don't have to counter anything.

But if they want a player base to purchase their 18 months of development, it is incumbent on them to keep that payer base interest. Note the 'payer' !!

 

[CMDR_Coenen]

One thing that DOES worry me is more 'developer involvement' regarding CGs. The problem with this is it gives the game a much shorter shelf life should it become a cornerstone of gameplay. [....] In other words, a game from year 2000 is still playable in it's $60 release form, a game from 14 years later is not playable because the latter banked on the concept of continuous human development....i.e. 'games a a service'.

This will never happen to ED, because it's heavily dependent on online services. If and when FD decides to end those services, ED will cease to be playable. Not saying FD will do this soon, but when it happens, no one can play it.

Investing in developer assisted CG's is a nice addition to these features. It's not an additional "danger" to the life span of ED. When FD end ED's life, it will end, with or without supported events or whatever features will be added in the future. And while ED isn't the biggest money generator for the company, I'm sure FD will support and develop for ED for a long time.

18 months of nothing will lead to complete hatred from the game.

May be by a small portion of it's users, but I don't believe it will turn everyone against it. The game as it is now is great, enjoyable and social. On this forum you can see extremes in reactions, expectations and indeed hatred, but the other communities like Reddit and even the Twitter community are very relaxed. But this is for most games these days. I have seen it even with relaxed games like Transport Fever... People like to burn developments if it does not conform to expectations. Developers are very used to this. But no, I find it hard to believe that a silence on announcements will cause widespread hatred of anarchy.

Since it's release, Frontier have proven time and time again, they cannot do clean releases.

One reason I am happy with the decision by Frontier to take a longer time for development. 1,5 years is still very short for major development.

But if they want a player base to purchase their 18 months of development, it is incumbent on them to keep that payer base interest. Note the 'payer' !!

After release of Horizons and the latest major update there was a 'surge' in players. So I'm sure that those who "hate" the game because of lack of development or communication will return after the next major release.

 

[metatheurgist]

Nothing could be further from the truth my friend..

18 months of nothing will lead to complete hatred from the game. 18 months is a long time to sit waiting to know what 'might' be coming down the frontier tubes. And that's not to mention that the current bugs from the previous release(s) and by and large still untouched.

18 months is a long time for players to pick up new titles and forget about Elite. What they won't forget is the prevalent toxicity by both the complainers and the defending white knights.

Since it's release, Frontier have proven time and time again, they cannot do clean releases. There is nothing, absolutely nothing that persuades me otherwise than what ever they produce in 2 years time will be another mess of bugs.

You are correct that FD don't have to counter anything.

But if they want a player base to purchase their 18 months of development, it is incumbent on them to keep that payer base interest. Note the 'payer' !!

You are making the mistaken assumption that you matter, you don't. Only the payer that buys the game in 2020 matters. That's how business works.