Investigating the new states

goemon

goemon
Factabulous said:
uh huh yes - but either way - without the trigger being known it doesn't matter. You're saying 'maybe this is not a 100% chance?' when we don't even know what 'this' is. It's impossible to disprove your assertion that 'stuff might be just random' - so better to test hypotheses that can disprove it - then at least we have a smaller problem space.

Ah well, 'this' discussion isn't going anywhere - time to experiment ;)
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it COULD be tested for pirate attack, as we know a bunch of actions said to up it, and to some extend for outbreak, as we know one action to up it.
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
goemon said:
they trigger imho by chance, and you can raise the chance for them to trigger.
imho this also explains the different times they occur in Ian D.'s exampel.
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It could - inherent randomness could explain that - but equally Colonia is a system with daily traffic varying in the 500-1000 range so just people not doing exactly the same thing each day would cause some distinctions too.

There's enough variation in player activity in Colonia that the Colonia Council faction drifts back and forth between None and Boom on economy, and None and Civil Liberty on security, for example. But there's no suggestion of any randomness in those sliders. Equally while its broad influence position is relatively stable it has still drifted in a 23%-37% range over the period covered by those events.

Randomness is possible but I don't think necessary to explain any observations so far.
 

goemon

goemon
Ian Doncaster said:
It could - inherent randomness could explain that - but equally Colonia is a system with daily traffic varying in the 500-1000 range so just people not doing exactly the same thing each day would cause some distinctions too.

There's enough variation in player activity in Colonia that the Colonia Council faction drifts back and forth between None and Boom on economy, and None and Civil Liberty on security, for example. But there's no suggestion of any randomness in those sliders. Equally while its broad influence position is relatively stable it has still drifted in a 23%-37% range over the period covered by those events.

Randomness is possible but I don't think necessary to explain any observations so far.
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there is a difference between randomness and probability though?

and probability would match fdevs description of making something more likely to happen.
 

goemon

goemon
facta will hate me, but the hidden stats standard of living, tech level, development level and wealth might work as modifiers.

and as goverment type affects security base level pre any actions, it might as well effect those stats...
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
goemon said:
there is a difference between randomness and probability though?
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Yes, but I don't think an important one here.

If the cumulative threshold is 100, and player actions put in net 7-12 each day after the previous event has recovered, then we'd see what we see in Colonia, with no randomness or probability beyond "what are the chances that players choose to do these actions and not those actions".

Equally it could be a process where after a much lower threshold is reached the state has a 10% chance of occurring each day after that ... but I don't think that's necessary to fit the observations (and doesn't fit in with the much more regular recurrence pattern of Pirate Attack for Jaques before the extra states were added in 3.6)

goemon said:
and probability would match fdevs description of making something more likely to happen.
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Yes, but it would also match a description of a threshold process.

If you have a threshold of 100, and some actions are -1 and some actions are +1, then taking a +1 action increases the chances of the event occurring in future, given that you don't know what everyone else is doing / will be doing.
 
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