General / Off-Topic Is a global recession on the way?

[Robin of Spiritwood]

There is significant increase in negative buzz from the usual channels.

India has seen a huge drop in domestic car sales, and ADB forecasts for a dip in growth to 6.5 % were just released. The problem in just car manufacturing will put an estimated 1 million workers out of a job.

There is bad news from China, South America, and Europe too.

In the States, the Federal Reserve is printing money and buying debt to keep investment banks afloat. They are injecting 75 billion daily since last week and plan to continue for weeks. The interest rates are dropping, which we usually see as a corrective measure to stimulate a recovery.
Together this amounts to a de facto ongoing managed devaluation of the USD, the global reserve currency.

Maybe the oil glut on the market isn't just due to increased electric vehicles and renewables, but to global slowdown.

 

[Morbad]

I do think a recession is on the way. No idea how good/bad (depending on one's perspective) it will be. I have reshuffled a few of my investments and altered a few of my planned purchases though.

Maybe the oil glut on the market isn't just due to increased electric vehicles and renewables, but to global slowdown.

Renewables and electric vehicles aren't a huge factor in low oil prices. US production increased sharply in 2014, China is stockpiling at a lower rate, and slower economic growth all-round is curtailing demand.

 

[Caramel Clown]

Once bankers decide they want to engineer another crisis then it's the time.

 

[Chaparral]

I suppose the election will go to the highest bailout bidder between the candidates.

 

[jasonbarron]

The Earth is being murdered and all you guys care about is your economic model???? Aaaaaarggggggg!

 

[znôrt]

The Earth is being murdered and all you guys care about is your economic model???? Aaaaaarggggggg!

a global recession means unemployment and spending cuts that will considerably impact a big part of society which was never 'bailed out' and still hasn't recovered from the last screw up. it will hit you too. not really funny, but that's what we do.

mind you, not that i'm defending the current economic model. not at all! it's just that we will have the full house of bad consequences from it for a while, without the meager benefits.

i'm glad though you finally saw the light, jason. there's hope!

 

[metatheurgist]

Seems likely. The economic system is a failure.

 

[6xes]

The Earth is being murdered and all you guys care about is your economic model???? Aaaaaarggggggg!

how dare you!!

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

As always, the question becomes what day to buy the gold and use the collateral to go short on stocks...

The uncertainty of the situation is profound. The NYSE PE ratios now exceed the ones before the crash of 1929. When this one hits, it will be a very very steep one.
There may still be short term space for some rally, as the political imperatives to keep the US economy looking superficially good have recently become extreme. It doesnt have to be convincing or anything, look at the residual population they have to fool.
The timing is going to be cruical, as Halloween gets nearer.

Maybe this time I'll just take loans of devaluing cash, buy durable goods, and ride it out... a washing machine is still going to be worth a washing machine in the end, but the dollars are going to get trashed.

 

[Patrick_68000]

The Earth is being murdered and all you guys care about is your economic model???? Aaaaaarggggggg!

They think only of money !

I understand your dismay.

 

[Patrick_68000]

A good and severe recession is ideal to get people back on the good track and implement an smart "economic decline" to replace the current system and save our planet and the future of our children.

It's an opportunity.

 

[Patrick_68000]

In France "Generali" insurance company, plans to force people to take risk life insurance in place of guaranteed life insurance.

Negative rate investments are becoming the norm, which is not profitable for the banks and the insurance companies.

And generates thousands of job cuts and agencies in cities and towns.

 

[Leper Messiah]

People in the UK will blame Brexit!

 

[Stigbob]

People in the UK will blame Brexit!

Nah, we'll blame the eejits who fell for all the lies about it having any positive effects.

 

[lysan]

a global recession means unemployment and spending cuts that will considerably impact a big part of society which was never 'bailed out' and still hasn't recovered from the last screw up. it will hit you too. not really funny, but that's what we do.

mind you, not that i'm defending the current economic model. not at all! it's just that we will have the full house of bad consequences from it for a while, without the meager benefits.

i'm glad though you finally saw the light, jason. there's hope!

No it won’t my house is paid, my cars are paid, my kids are adults, we grow our own food and we got a fresh supply of water for free.

Life is good

 

[[VR] Mad Mike]

People in the UK will blame Brexit!

and on the flip side Brexiteers will blame the world economy when everything goes to crap.

bottom line with things like brexit no matter what happens we (all of us inc me) are so set in our ways that we will always find an excuse to be proven right. No one wants to admit they played a hand in ruining the economy/lives of millions of people.

probably why it is best we dont talk politics here

 

[znôrt]

No it won’t my house is paid, my cars are paid, my kids are adults, we grow our own food and we got a fresh supply of water for free.

well played! so your only worry will be when some angry and hungry mob comes for your food and water ...

 

[znôrt]

and on the flip side Brexiteers will blame the world economy when everything goes to crap.

bottom line with things like brexit no matter what happens we (all of us inc me) are so set in our ways that we will always find an excuse to be proven right. No one wants to admit they played a hand in ruining the economy/lives of millions of people.

probably why it is best we dont talk politics here

in short: we are doomed and we will blame tj.

funny how elite memes explain the world so well!!!

 

[Remus]

Experts have been speculating that the US will enter in recession next year as a consequence of the current economic war between them and China.

So far is only speculation tho'. But the current economic war certainly wont help to avoid one.

"wait and see"

 

[jasonbarron]

If your teeth are gone, it sounds like that, yeah.
You forgot your weapon arsenal in your list above, also all paid and fully functional I trust? You'll need them.

Why are you jumping to an apocalyptic doom scenario? A global recession is going to be a belt tightening event for the average person living in Western Civilization, nothing more. It's fascinating to me to read how constantly primed people are for the sky to fall.