Is There a Guide to Predicting Mission Types?

Does anyone know of a guide to predicting mission types that will probably be offered based on System State/Economy/????

I really like to do Assassination missions (more fun to hunt for the bounty target that farm them) and occasionally Wet Work/Black Ops missions. It would be nice to be able to predict where I could find these by viewing the system state and economies from the galactic map.

Thanks in advance for any guidance offered.
 
No. The mission generator's algorithms are too arcane for us mere players to be able to decipher a pattern.

There are general patterns - anarchies tend to offer more criminal missions, and various states are likely to spawn certain mission types (Famine generates requests to deliver foodstuffs, for example). But specific missions at specific locations cannot be predicted.

So for yor preferred mission type (killing things), you're probably better off looking for work in Anarchy stations. Non-anarchies at peace tend not to offer assassination missions for anything except pirate lords. Alternatively, look for active Wars, as factions fighting a war often seek to assassinate deserters, rival generals, etc.
 
Any system within 10ly of another system is viable to produce massacre missions if the other system has an anarchy faction, I would guess the same is true for assassination missions as well.

Civil War / War states will routinely spawn 'Assassinate Venerable General' and 'Assassinate Deserter' missions.
Outbreak states often spawn 'kill infected vessels' missions.
 
Any system within 10ly of another system is viable to produce massacre missions if the other system has an anarchy faction, I would guess the same is true for assassination missions as well.

Civil War / War states will routinely spawn 'Assassinate Venerable General' and 'Assassinate Deserter' missions.
Outbreak states often spawn 'kill infected vessels' missions.
Yeah, they'll spawn the kill infected vessels missions but at the moment these missions are impossible to complete as none of the baddies turn up in the USS'. Apparently there's a ticket for this bug.

The deserter missions spawn the baddies but they will all fire on you at once (8-10) so it's a bit tricky to complete on your own. Apparently this is a bug also. @Jmanis seems to have the lowdown with what's going on with these.
 
Yeah, they'll spawn the kill infected vessels missions but at the moment these missions are impossible to complete as none of the baddies turn up in the USS'. Apparently there's a ticket for this bug.

The deserter missions spawn the baddies but they will all fire on you at once (8-10) so it's a bit tricky to complete on your own. Apparently this is a bug also. @Jmanis seems to have the lowdown with what's going on with these.

I've not seen that happen with deserter missions. Usually it's just like 2, at most 3 targets in those missions, and pretty easy to shoot down besides. Can't comment on the infected vessels, only seen the missions offered, not done them.
 
Fascinating question. Years ago I took an interest.. but

  • Its changed / changes over time. There was no official information on this, so I'm guessing that new player feedback and even possibly server optimisation may have been some driving factors to its design, ie, the first concern isn't to mission board seeking gameplay.
  • Maybe last year I had another go at this, and stopped really quickly, because from my sampling there's so much overlap in the templates the distinctions were not meaningful, and you might even be playing rng to see them in the first place.
  • Less common mission types might have more reliable patterns.
  • In the past, I swear system population used to factor into it as well, long gone though.
  • The value in a lot of this study was to take some initiative on stacking locations, but stacking is relatively disabled now.
  • Ian Doncaster probably knows the real answer instead of the above.
EDIT: In the past, the dominant factors determining what missions that spawned were: Station Economy, Minor faction state, minor faction government type, possibly system population (or more likely the hidden attribute of system wealth), whether it was a ground base or space station. Today, it feels like one of everything everywhere with a few more and few less only of the least popular mission types in somewhat logical places.
 
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I've not seen that happen with deserter missions. Usually it's just like 2, at most 3 targets in those missions, and pretty easy to shoot down besides. Can't comment on the infected vessels, only seen the missions offered, not done them.
I'll get you a video next time i see one :)

@OP: I'll write a bigger post, when I'm not sitting in my driveway on my phone waiting indefinitely
 
Does anyone know of a guide to predicting mission types that will probably be offered based on System State/Economy/????

I really like to do Assassination missions (more fun to hunt for the bounty target that farm them) and occasionally Wet Work/Black Ops missions. It would be nice to be able to predict where I could find these by viewing the system state and economies from the galactic map.

Thanks in advance for any guidance offered.

To be pedantic, I think missions are more to do with the factions than the system state.

I'm currently in a system that's in Boom and Civil Liberty, which all seems very wholesome and uplifting but the factions, themselves, are all sketchy AF, (complete with purple hair and wraparound sunny's) with the result that it's all assassinations, smuggling, spying, wetwork, specops and sabotage missions.
 
Straight off the bat though for @Daniel Cloudsifter
Assassinations & Pirate Massacres: Will be offered by any lawful faction where there is an anarchy faction 10Ly away. If you want to stack them or minimise the amount of systems you need to visit, try to ensure there's only one anarchy faction within 10Ly, then all missions will target them.

Note: States will change the flavour of these missions, and War/Civil War will generally favour missions for CZ targets, but all states have an analogue of this which still follows the same rules as normal pirate missions... e.g in Outbreak, a "Biohazard Target" mission is synonymous with an "Assassinate Known Pirate" mission... likewise "Assassinate Deserter" during wartime.

Avoid expansion states though. All assassination missions except wing missions then become "Expansion support by killing known terrorist" which have you needing to scan a beacon at a surface installation (if a suitable one exists within 10Ly) and then flying off to a random system within (10 or 20, I'm not sure) Ly of that system; they're a pain.

Wetwork and Spec Ops: Honestly, not sure about the rules for these except that a lawful faction needs to be within 10Ly. It's hard to stack these because you don't get the targets in advance, and unlike pirate massacres, there's almost always at least five or six lawful factions nearby, so you simply can't stack them well. Authoritarians may favour these, unsure though.

There's a massive amount of variance in missions and how they spawn, but ultimately, they all spawn in any state, for any government, with different flavours. Without going through an exhaustive post of my knowledge about states and missions though, here's some extra things I know.

Hijacking missions: There seems to be a strange location-specific aspect to these which I don't understand completely. My usual faction rarely gives these out, except in one particular system, which is indiscernable from any other system in the region. It's odd. However, Election will spawn a lot of these, usually to hijack diplomatic bags/political prisoners.

Government Effects: By and large, government doesn't have a massive impact except for "collective" type governments within the four main "flavours" of Corporate, Authoritarian and Social. Anecdotally, Confederate and Cooperative have flavoured delivery missions, and seem to spawn these more than other government types, e.g:
1608266864262.png

There may be other similar effects like Communism and Assassinations (which have special flavour too) but I've not looked into them.

Source and Delivery: Delivery missions will spawn in any station where export goods in that station are an import in another station (usually within 20Ly). Likewise Source missions will spawn for any import goods that are an export from a system within (X? 40?) Ly. There may be specific templates for goods which only occur in certain regions of space, but I've not been able to discern that.

Note: Some states such as Famine/Outbreak will override normal behaviours by favouring source food/medicine missions as relevant, but standard missions can still occur (just far less likely). Boom state seems to increase the amount of trade related missions as well

Note 2: If you're in, say, an Agricultural system, and a nearby system is in Famine, you'll get more missions to deliver food to that system than usual. Not as many missions as you'd get source missions directly from that system, but the boards have awareness of what's going on in nearby systems.

Space Salvage: There's the Legal and Illegal variants... but what determines the difference here is unknown. I might be back to front, but I think there's a 10-20Ly range for legal salvage, and <10Ly range for illegal... but what controls what you get I'm unsure.... only that you'll generally only get one type. Generally... it doesn't mean you won't. Mission boards are blobby.

Installation Scans/Powerplant Destruction: These obviously need a relevant installtion within 20Ly... but interestingly, not all installations are part of the pool. In one example, I know of a system where there's only one valid system for these sorts of missions (and you can get a lot... easily stack 20 missions with one board generation) but multiple suitable target installations... the missions will only ever target one of those facilities, not the others. It's very weird.

Mining: Missions will be for items that are imports; so counterintuitively, you don't go to Extraction economies for mining missions; Industrial and Agricultural are your best bet, and sometimes Refinery (it depends)... In a None state, mining missions will be for mining-only commodities (e.g Osmium) or market purchasable (e.g Gold).... but in Boom or Investment, they will exclusively be for mining-only commodities, unless they are wing missions.

That's a non-exhaustive dump of some knowledge. I have other observations, but they're even more tenuous... just when you think you've got the mission board worked out, it behaves in a completely different way, so if I listed them, someone would (rightly) have a counter-example. Robigo tourist missions are a great example of this.... if you go anywhere else in the bubble you can start to get a ruleset for how tourism missions work. If you look at robigo, there's more tourist destinations than Sothis Mines which are in-range... yet you only ever get tourist missions to Sothis mines. It's weird.
 

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I'll get you a video next time i see one :)
So, I got a Deserter mission, but I'm hostile to the target, so it's a bad example. I'll have to wait to clear up first.

EDIT: Also, it's behaving very differently. Instead of Wanted targets attacking all at once... I'm getting instances full of system security force belonging to the target faction, all clean, and they sit there doing nothing. Very odd
 
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Ian Doncaster probably knows the real answer instead of the above.
This one is more Jmanis' area, I think.

Government Effects: By and large, government doesn't have a massive impact except for "collective" type governments within the four main "flavours" of Corporate, Authoritarian and Social. Anecdotally, Confederate and Cooperative have flavoured delivery missions, and seem to spawn these more than other government types, e.g:
View attachment 200321
There may be other similar effects like Communism and Assassinations (which have special flavour too) but I've not looked into them.
Prison Colony governments (and also other factions at stations they control?) tend to give "Assassinate prisoner" rather than "Assassinate pirate"
Theocracies seem to give more "donate cargo" missions (maybe just at their own stations?)

Obviously the biggest difference is for the Criminal factions which have access to a completely different set of (mostly poorly-paid and neglected [1]) illegal missions.

[1] For a legal cargo mission, you can use the depot to complete it in an undersized ship. For an illegal mission you must have the hold space to do it in a single run or you can't accept it.

Source and Delivery: Delivery missions will spawn in any station where export goods in that station are an import in another station (usually within 20Ly).
...except, oddly, for certain refinery and high-tech exports (superconductors, consumer tech, maybe a couple of others) which don't seem to care if the destination would normally import it.

Likewise Source missions will spawn for any import goods that are an export from a system within (X? 40?) Ly. There may be specific templates for goods which only occur in certain regions of space, but I've not been able to discern that.
The "regional" goods like Energy Grid Assembly I see the occasional source mission for out here, so that's ~22kLY
I'm not sure if the others have a range or not - it's not easy to tell.

Mining: Missions will be for items that are imports; so counterintuitively, you don't go to Extraction economies for mining missions; Industrial and Agricultural are your best bet, and sometimes Refinery (it depends)... In a None state, mining missions will be for mining-only commodities (e.g Osmium) or market purchasable (e.g Gold).... but in Boom or Investment, they will exclusively be for mining-only commodities, unless they are wing missions.
Not always for imports, either - Industrials will ask for Bertrandite, pretty much anywhere will ask for Osmium whether it imports it or not. Tourism/Service economies take a wide-range of mined goods by mission that they wouldn't normally import.

That's a non-exhaustive dump of some knowledge. I have other observations, but they're even more tenuous... just when you think you've got the mission board worked out, it behaves in a completely different way, so if I listed them, someone would (rightly) have a counter-example. Robigo tourist missions are a great example of this.... if you go anywhere else in the bubble you can start to get a ruleset for how tourism missions work. If you look at robigo, there's more tourist destinations than Sothis Mines which are in-range... yet you only ever get tourist missions to Sothis mines. It's weird.
Yep. Another big oddity - mining missions, source missions and donations don't require any nearby inhabited systems, so isolated systems tend to get a lot more of them.
But really isolated systems don't even get those, for no obvious reason.
 
Thanks to everyone for their responses! In particular, a big thank you to Jmanis and BL1P for the exhaustive data dump and the link to the mission table, respectively.

I should've clarified in my original post that the Assassination Missions I like are the ones to (lawfully) kill a specific target, not the ones where you kill a bunch of ships of a certain faction or type (which I thought were called Massacre missions, but whatever). Wing Assassination missions are extra fun, due to the difficulty at Elite level.

Over the six years I've been playing, I have a mini-bubble of about 20-30 systems in Arissa's space that I've maxed reputation with nearly all the factions. Most of those systems were picked because they offered good bounty hunting (Haz Res/CNB type) which I used to earn money and faction before switching to missions. These systems tended to give missions of a type I liked (or I moved on) such as Assassination, Planetary Scan, etc. on a fairly regular basis. However, there was no predicting week by week (sometimes day by day) whether they would still offer their typical fare or be something different. Hopefully, the information provided will help me predict this a little better rather than having to fly to each. I'd also like to roam around more, instead of dealing with the same old systems.

On a slightly separate note, I honestly wish Assassination Missions (the legal/bounty hunting type) were offered by new type of mission board that was either bubble-wide, or at least covered vast regions. I love taking these contracts to hunt down targets. I don't love having to hunt down systems to get the contracts in the first place. For that matter, I'd be more open to criminal missions if the criminals had a board you could access, regardless of system, to take contracts. Maybe we'll get something like that in Odyssey, or post Odyssey...
 
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