Also, EU = Hitler? Give it a rest.
Ok here is my logic around why Brexit would reduce EU exports.
The EU is a single market
Single markets boost trade in two ways, no tariffs or non-tariff barriers and no requirement for customs paperwork.
If we assume the UK strikes a deal with the EU for zero tariff barriers (the best possible outcome) that still leaves the matter of customs.
Why do we need customs with the EU? Because the UK would have different import tariffs from the EU. Say Chinese steel could be imported to the UK tariff free. The EU would need to check every steel consignment to the EU would have to have it's origin declared (UK manufactured steel, no tariff, Chinese imported steel - pay a tariff) and then checked. the whole bureaucracy of filling in forms, certifying origin, calculating duty, inspecting and impounding cargos etc would have to be applied. The EU would have no choice but to enforce this. The customs barrier around any single market must be uniform and total.
The customs checks and administration would be a small drag on trade. Not huge (although it could be) but a percentage point or two.
Every 1% drop in EU trade represents a loss of around £2.5bn a year from GDP or about £900 million a year in government revenues.
Ok, so that bit is irrefutable. We will absolutely lose some EU trade. No doubt about that.
What is more contentions is will we increase our non EU trade by enough to compensate?
The people behind "brexit the movie" include Professor Minford, darling of Brexit because he predicts the UK economy will do better outside the EU. A primary difference in his modelling is that he has (as his personal beliefs guide him) dropped all import tariffs. So UK consumers can buy goods from anywhere in the world without paying any extra on top. This will immediately drop food prices, prices of goods from non EU places like China and the US. Yay sounds good, cheaper iPad and toys and the like.
Of course, EU goods would cost the same as we pay no duty now.
The first implication is all our industries would be stuffed. How can a UK manufacturer compete with a Chinese one? Economists say "become more efficient", but our manufacturers are already more efficient than many Chinese or even US manufacturers. In terms of man hours per car UK car plants are amongst the most efficient in the world. The same with many other industries. Higher skill bases plus lots of automation make UK manufacturers very efficient. What makes EU factories struggle is having to provide sick, holiday, maternity pay. Providing protective equipment like hard hats, boots, extractors. Fire alarms in factories, factories that don't fall down, pensions, minimum wages. Having to treat chemical waste rather than just dump it in a nearby river.
There is no way a developed nation factory can compete with a developing nation one.
so our industry would be stuffed, but by dropping our tariffs we have lost a lever in negotiating for an tariffs we face to be dropped. S why would China, say, give us any better terms than they have to, given there is nothing we could do to stop them putting up barriers?
