General / Off-Topic Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

[Majere]

Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...sation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists


I thought interesting as well in the context of the Elite universe. The Empire should beware the Ides of March..

 

[Darren Grey]

The biggest issue is energy, with so much of the world in energy poverty and the industrialised world creating energy in harmful ways. In the Elite universe there is limitless cheap energy from modularised fusion reactors - I don't think we'll realistically see any such luxury for a very long time, and even then it will be limited to certain countries.

 

[kenwshmt]

We are doomed, try and keep up.

 

[Dejay]

I just hope we last until Elite Dangerous is release

But seriously I'm not worried. If we do nothing, maybe 50% or so of all humans will die, but natural selection says we'll be smarter afterwards. It's not like anything except a zombie apocalypse could really scrape us off the planet.

The biggest issue is energy, with so much of the world in energy poverty and the industrialised world creating energy in harmful ways

But actually we could rebuild our entire energy structure using solar power and other regenerative energy means in a few years. It would just require wealth distribution. Might mean inflation and "more expensive" power bills but give reduction of unemployment.

 

[MacArthur]

I don't think natural selection says that at all. Smart might have got humans into the industrial age but there's no guarantee of what the best survival strategy is following catastrophic industrial collapse. Same goes for any natural disaster that falls short of scraping us off the planet. Assuming some big apes survive, you can further assume they will remain smart, but get smarter? I don't think so. I also think you might be underestimating the upfront energy cost of converting the world to solar power. There might not be enough legs left in the current system to complete the transition.

I think you guys are right though, energy is almost literally the beef. I've seen very disturbing charts of what happens to animal populations when a huge abundance of food is reduced. Exponential population increase followed by massive collapse. In the case of humans, the starvation would likely be accompanied by vicious resource wars. Along with this goes the idea that modern agriculture, which at the moment mostly manages to feed the exponentially increasing population is engaged in turning fossil fuel, particularly oil, into food at an efficiency of about 10%, ie. 1 food calorie=10 fossil fuel calories. I think you can see what this means as oil becomes more expensive to harvest. Seems to me the only hope for the survival of this number of humans short to medium term is that there will be some sort of a soft landing out of the oil age provided by new technology. Long term of course, we must travel to the stars

Man, that's all a bit depressing. When is the beta coming?

 

[Patrick_68000]

The human race is so intelligent, that it self-destructs

 

[Darren Grey]

Some have theorised that every civilisation in the universe must overcome this energy hurdle. A species must make efficient enough resources from its planet (in our case through the burning of millions of years of condensed biomatter) to develop a 100% sustainable energy supply *or* to get to space and find other areas of resource.

One theory for the lack of evidence of terrestrial life is that this hurdle is too huge for most, if not all species. A species rises, develops technology, burns through its planet's resources and then dies out, before it ever takes that vital step forwards. We are perhaps doomed to the same fate.

Yes, all very depressing

 

[MacArthur]

The human race is so intelligent, that it self-destructs

Exactly, on an evolutionary timescale, we could be right at the crisis point where the universe decides whether smart was a smart strategy for life.

Similar idea to the energy hurdle is the uranium barrier as a reason why we see no advanced ET. Apex predator gets super smart, discovers nuclear fission, vapourises itself. If anyone thinks we have dodged this bullet with MAD, well you're wrong. It isn't a bullet, it is a Sword of Damocles.

Urgh, hurry up FD, I want to bury my head in the occulus rift.

 

[Patrick_68000]

The extinction of the human species could also come from an external event to our planet and our activities

 

[Dejay]

I don't think natural selection says that at all.

Right. Survival of the fittest might as well produce an Idiocracy.

On a more serious note, climate change could well be part of our "cultural evolution" where we'll get to understand that profit isn't everything. Would be great if ED actually included some of these developments in their galaxy simulation.

About energy, the turning point will be nuclear fusion. We should really start a "Manhattan project" for that. And we could save a lot of energy by becoming vegetarians, stop wasting so much money on superfluous mobile chargers and in general producing a lot less crap. If we'd really have to I think a complete switch to renewable would be possible in a decade. We'd only have to legislate a *massive* carbon tax.

Man, that's all a bit depressing. When is the beta coming?

Don't fret! It'll be great like in mad max!

 

[Patrick_68000]

Urgh, hurry up FD, I want to bury my head in the occulus rift.

This will not contribute to reducing our energy expenses

 

[Darren Grey]

If we'd really have to I think a complete switch to renewable would be possible in a decade. We'd only have to legislate a *massive* carbon tax.

"Only". International energy policy is one of the trickiest things to manage Any carbon tax means a change in economic growth, and governments are all competing with each other economically. Getting them all to agree to the same energy policy is immensely difficult, when it just takes one country to say "no" and the others will also bail because they don't want that one country getting a huge economic advantage. And even when a very rich country like Australia implements a strong carbon tax it leads to the public getting annoyed and a climate denying president getting elected. Stupid democracy!

In terms of carbon taxes, we actually give more tax breaks to the oil and gas industry in the UK than we do to green energy. The oil and gas industry is seen as too economically vital.

Worst thing is when you look at Arctic exploitation. Decades of oil-burning have led to permanent changes in the Arctic, such that we can now get at previously inaccessible oil fields. The result of this horrific climate destruction is more horrific climate destruction! Any moral person would say "no, we won't touch that oil" but instead you have Russia, Norway, Greenland, USA, Canada and others all fighting over who gets what share. The general attitude is "well one of the others is going to do it so we should do it too". Lovely...

 

[Majere]

Interesting discussion people.

The thing that will really kill us off, and I think was at the heart of that piece, is greed.

The actual bullet that does the job does not really matter, it will probably be a combination of things.

Unless the world can decide to come together and become one humanity there is no hope, we just wait for the end. I do fear we are approaching that point quite rapidly, but then probably every generation does.

I had a talk a couple of years ago with a professor of economics and asked him what he thought would trigger the doomsday.

He said water.

 

[Darren Grey]

Water is a huge issue, but we're very close to developing ultra-violet LEDs that should help immensely with that. It'll enable cheap, reliable, mass-produced water purifiers that cost almost nothing to keep running.

 

[metatheurgist]

<Tin Foil hat on>
As the supply of fossil fuels dwindles, prices ratchet up, many die, the super rich get richer. Just as it seems like the whole thing will go down the drain, one of those super-rich will reveal an energy breakthrough, that they've "just discovered". In the new reduced population, more manageable new world order, the ultra rich will continue their reign after their corporate troops restore order.
<Tin Foil Hat off>

 

[Ian Phillips]

Sounds like a plot for a film!

 

[Cody]

Water - an entertaining movie, was that.

 

[Andrew Sayers]

even when a very rich country like Australia implements a strong carbon tax it leads to the public getting annoyed and a climate denying president getting elected. Stupid democracy!

This actually makes perfect sense of the Federation. We know humanity's unchecked competitive urge in the 3rd millenium nearly destroyed their home planet and caused the genocide of another sentient species. Corporations and governments could really clean up by pedaling an end to competition in that environment, with all the downsides being dismissed as merely the cost of doing business.

 

[Im_Lost]

Well it's going to happen one day. Eventually non-renewable resources WILL run out on this planet. There is a big focus on making all of our technology more efficient at the moment. We are already seeing things like vehicles getting lighter and using smaller engines and computer components using less power. Progress is [slowly] being made.

Climate change is going to happen either way. It's part of Earth's cycle. The problem is we are not helping matters

 

[Hydrino]

No Fusion

Right. Survival of the fittest might as well produce an Idiocracy.

On a more serious note, climate change could well be part of our "cultural evolution" where we'll get to understand that profit isn't everything. Would be great if ED actually included some of these developments in their galaxy simulation.

About energy, the turning point will be nuclear fusion. We should really start a "Manhattan project" for that. And we could save a lot of energy by becoming vegetarians, stop wasting so much money on superfluous mobile chargers and in general producing a lot less crap. If we'd really have to I think a complete switch to renewable would be possible in a decade. We'd only have to legislate a *massive* carbon tax.

Don't fret! It'll be great like in mad max!

I don't see practical fusion energy ever being realized with balance of energy out. The energy density is low and very nasty radiation is produced- the containment vessels will be a bigger nightmare than fission waste. The US alone has spent over 50 Billion dollars and more than 50 years on Fusion and there has not been any energy production yet. But folks complain about a few million being spent on Solar or other clean, safe, here-right-now technologies that also need developing. If ignition is achieved at a Tokamak or other planned reactor, how long will it take to convert to a safe, sustained and continuous process? What is the mechanism to capture the energy since it is contained in a magnetic field? I have never heard that discussed - maybe line the reactor with solar cells ? People hassle companies all the time about how slow they are to make a product or research new medicines and such, we should be upset at the money thrown at fusion for no results, perhaps indicating the problem either can't be solved or we are going about it completely wrong.

Fusion is the energy source of the future, and always will be.

-Dark Matter