Odds of another system identical to Sol?

[drkaii]

What do you statistics boffins think? A class G, with a metal rich - high metal CO2 atmosphere - earth like - high metal - asteroid belt - 4 class I Jovians (with the right colours) - binary ice planets?

At roughly the correct distances etc?

I think the odds can be worked out but the probability of me getting it right are less than 0 (see what I mean?)

 

[Katejina]

Chances of there being an identical system, strict measurements and orbital periods notwithstanding, can't be too low. An exact replica though? Well, 400 billion systems gives us a chance but I really, really doubt it.

 

[drkaii]

Well you need to take into account the abundance of type G stars, which is extremely low, but still there will be billions. But is billions enough? What percentage of stars actually have planets? And then what are the relative probabilities of each planet type? Then we can make a guess of roughly the odds of getting a replica. My bet is that the odds are less than the number of Gs in our galaxy but could be wrong. What a find that would be though! Would make galnet, that's for sure

 

[deathmagnet]

I would think the odds are better than statistical analysis would suggest. If I was a game designer I would purposely put 1 or 2 of these systems in the game as a reward for those die hard explorers. Maybe in some of the locked sectors of space. Maybe some that can be found now...

That's what I would do.

 

[drkaii]

I would think the odds are better than statistical analysis would suggest. If I was a game designer I would purposely put 1 or 2 of these systems in the game as a reward for those die hard explorers. Maybe in some of the locked sectors of space. Maybe some that can be found now...

That's what I would do.

Yes I didn't take divine intervention into account, good point!

 

[CMDR AKIRA MASAKARI]

Well you need to take into account the abundance of type G stars, which is extremely low, but still there will be billions. But is billions enough? What percentage of stars actually have planets? And then what are the relative probabilities of each planet type? Then we can make a guess of roughly the odds of getting a replica. My bet is that the odds are less than the number of Gs in our galaxy but could be wrong. What a find that would be though! Would make galnet, that's for sure

We don't know yet. With the most modern tecnology we can see few Planets, and not yet earth size. We discovered something Like few thiusands of planets, wast majority gas giants.
So your idea to make a statistic calcolation is smart, but humanity doesn't have enough data yet. Shouldn't take long to have the technology to spot more kind of Planets.

Oh lol lol bad me i answered in real Life terms. Pardon me. To find one in the game i guess if they hand make some systems. Star forge is amazing in creating so many diverse systems yet beliavable in game terms

 

[deathmagnet]

We don't know yet. With the most modern tecnology we can see few Planets, and not yet earth size. We discovered something Like few thiusands of planets, wast majority gas giants.
So your idea to make a statistic calcolation is smart, but humanity doesn't have enough data yet. Shouldn't take long to have the technology to spot more kind of Planets.

I am pretty sure he is talking about in game. Not RL. But to your point I have always wondered...All these "super earth's". I have wondered much about this. The technology they use is look at a star and wait to see a shimmer in the stars light and with some fancy calculations you come up with a size and distance from host star..yada..yada. Pretty laymen's terms but I thinks that's the jist no?

So here is the question.

How do we know that it is not a super Earth but an Earth, Earth with a sizable moon or two or three orbiting it. I doubt we would be able to differentiate between the Earth sized object and it's corresponding satellites with the current technique and technology.

What do you think?

Another thing.

How the hell do they know if it's tidally locked from this distance? I think those assumptions and/or calculations are also flawed.

 

[CMDR AKIRA MASAKARI]

I am pretty sure he is talking about in game. Not RL. But to your point I have always wondered...All these "super earth's". I have wondered much about this. The technology they use is look at a star and wait to see a shimmer in the stars light and with some fancy calculations you come up with a size and distance from host star..yada..yada. Pretty laymen's terms but I thinks that's the jist no?

So here is the question.

How do we know that it is not a super Earth but an Earth, Earth with a sizable moon or two or three orbiting it. I doubt we would be able to differentiate between the Earth sized object and it's corresponding satellites with the current technique and technology.

What do you think?

Another thing.

How the hell do they know if it's tidally locked from this distance? I think those assumptions and/or calculations are also flawed.

For what i know you are compltely right. They calculate either the small reducing of star luminosity when planet eclisse it or either calculate the little movement that the planet gravity induces to the star. So they can spot big things with close orbits and DEDUCE everything else. The details are unreacheble yet and many corrent measures are changed on daily basis. Nevertheless it's a field of scince they are developing pretty fast and it is reasonable to say we Will know better in tris century span.


Think that the first extrasolar Planet confirmed happened something Like 20 Yars ago... Before they were even unsure if extrasolar bodies colle exist at all.

sry for my mobile italian autotrnaslator from helphelp

 

[gumbie]

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The message you have entered is too short. Please lengthen your message to at least 8 characters.

 

[drkaii]

Lol That was at least 8 characters how did you do that

 

[DrNoesis]

being as you're basically asking "can the same thing happen twice in a galaxy of 400 Billion systems" the very worst chance you'll have of it happening is 2 in 400 billion, or 1 in 200 billion or 0.000000000005%

You can improve the odds with an accurate count of the number of G type stars, (eg if you assume that 10% of systems are G type, then you're immediately bumping the odds to 1 in 20billion) and by extension, you can vastly improve the odds with more data generally, but essentially, at it's very worst chance, 1 in 200billion

 

[drkaii]

being as you're basically asking "can the same thing happen twice in a galaxy of 400 Billion systems" the very worst chance you'll have of it happening is 2 in 400 billion, or 1 in 200 billion or 0.000000000005%

You can improve the odds with an accurate count of the number of G type stars, (eg if you assume that 10% of systems are G type, then you're immediately bumping the odds to 1 in 20billion) and by extension, you can vastly improve the odds with more data generally, but essentially, at it's very worst chance, 1 in 200billion

You mean the very worst it NEEDS to be is one in 200 billion. It could be anything without data