Powerplay Pegasi War Progress and some more Weekly Stats

fergal

fergal
A question that keep popping up here on the FD forums, and the different Powers reddits is: how long can Archon Delaine last for without expanding?

There also seems to be a general perception that Archon Delaine is losing the Pegasi War against ALD, Aisling and Patreus.

In cycle 6 Archon Delaine had 17 Control Systems vs 56 for ALD, 36 for Aisling and 30 for Patreus, or 17 vs 122.

In cycle 21 Archon Delaine had 29 Control Systems vs 69 for ALD, 58 for Aisling and 51 for Patreus, or 29 vs 178.

So while this war has been going on, Delaine has 170% of the systems (or 70% increase) he started with, while the combined "Imperial High Council" of ALD, Aisling and Patreus systems are now 146% of where they started.

You can see the % increase in territory in this graph:
mxjxg2T.png


Patreus has a very similar increase compared to Delaine, but the other 2, and the average, is much lower.

Instead of looking at the % increase in the number of systems, here is a chart looking at the total of Delaines number of new systems vs the total of the average of the three Imperial Powers:
LqErX68.png

You can see the Imperials have added an average of 18 systems each, compared with 12 systems for Delaine, but the Imperials start with more than 7 times the total number of systems.

Not only has Archon Delaine increased his number of systems at a higher rate than the Imperials, he also has never lost any territory.
Galnet never mentions this, but the 3 Imperial Powers have lost systems on multiple occasions.

You can see all of the Imperial Powers, and their Average, lose systems:
Jz6kkjP.png


It's not so easy to make out just the Imperial Average vs Archon Delaine, here's the same chart with the individual Imperial Powers removed:
eVOkJ9e.png
 

fergal

fergal
And here are some more charts comparing all the powers for weeks 6-21

This one shows the incredible growth of Antal, and you can see how Mahon got to be ranked number 1.
QeK6oAC.png


Fortification showing Total then Effective.
You can see Aisling actually did more effective fortifying in week 17, than ALD did last week
Qgs38J2.png


Undermining Total, then Effective.
You can see the drop off in non Imperial undermining as the undermining against ALD increases in the last few weeks.
rlgtLcB.png


Both fortification again, but showing group totals for Imperials, Federation and Others
TWB9V5G.png


And the undermining by group
You can see the uptick from week 9 with the increase in undermining merits from 15 to 30 per kill
You can also see the sharp decline in week 20 with the 1.4 patch changes to interdiction difficulty and spawn rates.
SqZlLXD.png
 
Last edited:

Saool

Saool
This also shows, and answer the other oft coined question, why has no power been removed yet. Put simply, all powers are still growing. We have not yet reached the critical mass of expansion where it becomes almost impossible, and all powers turn inward in a fight over systems. Only then will that mechanic possibly come into play. We are still many cycles from there.

Great work.
 

Crimson Kaim

Crimson Kaim
It is because the imperials can't shoot. Look at the Clipper for example. We know that even with good hardpoint placements, imperials will use gimb weaponary anyways, so gutamaya didn't care about placements. Additionally, due to the inability to shoot/aim/fight, the Clipper has a top boost speed to avoid every fights above a Clipper vs Cobra (doesn't always work out ;)).

The Kumo Crew can atleast use their guns. Been fighting some the last weeks and imperials were never a problem, Delaine was :)
 
Last edited:

fergal

fergal
Some more food for thought.

Where does all the undermining come from on all the Non Imperial Powers?

Here is a comparison of ALD fortifications compared to their average amount of fortification vs the amount the non Imperial powers are undermined compared to their average amount of undermining.
This is taken starting at week 9 because this is when the merits for undermining were increased to 30 instead of 15, and the amount of undermining on everyone shoots up to reflect this.

The left chart shows the actual data for week 20, where there was a 25% decrease in undermining across all 10 powers, due to the changes brought in with patch 1.4.
The right chart normalises the values for week 20.
Z8LRls8.png


You can see there is a correlation between ALDs fortification levels and the undermining levels on Non Imperial Powers. When fortification is low, undermining is high and vice versa.

And here are the individual Non Imperial Powers instead of the combined average. The right chart removed Antal because his low undermining levels can spike with a small increase.

dRFUANI.png

Winters, Hudson, Mahon, Delaine and even Sirius all conform to similar patterns, when ALD fortifies they are left alone, when ALD doesn't fortify they are all undermined.
 
Last edited:

Apos

Apos
Crimson Kaim said:
It is because the imperials can't shoot. Look at the Clipper for example. We know that even with good hardpoint placements, imperials will use gimb weaponary anyways, so gutamaya didn't care about placements. Additionally, due to the inability to shoot/aim/fight, the Clipper has a top boost speed to avoid every fights above a Clipper vs Cobra (doesn't always work out ;)).

The Kumo Crew can atleast use their guns. Been fighting some the last weeks and imperials were never a problem, Delaine was :)
Click to expand...

Seeing how the feds have designated Torval as their undermining target this week and she only has 5 systems undermined by now, I don't think they are very good at aiming either.
 
Last edited:

Carradin

Carradin
Apos said:
Seeing how the feds have designated Torval as their undermining target this week and she only has 5 systems undermined by now, I don't think they are very good at aiming either.
Click to expand...
Curiously though, Mahon is seeing massivly increased undermining. I guess they're missing her and hitting us instead?
 

Saool

Saool
I suspect that given Hudson is in prime position to go back to No.1 next cycle 'our' non-aggression pacts and peace treaties have become even more porous than normal.

Obviously this is pure speculation on my part.

As to the graphs regarding ADL fortification data vs non-imperial power undermining data, It is good to see it so clearly but I doubt anyone will be surprised. ADL will be packed to the rafters with freeloaders taking advantage of all the almost free lunches she gets to hand out.

I've said it before and I will keep saying it again and again: the powers benefits, bonuses, equipment etc is grossly unbalanced meaning ADL and Hudson are far more attractive to the 'otherwise neutral'. Of course this could be intentional as create the feeling that these are the two largest powers. However if that is the case, it is a clear indication the the players don't really have influence over what happens in the game world, and call me a cynic, but I suspect the story line is more or less written for months if not years to come and game mechanics will ensure it does not stray far from that chosen path.
 

Carradin

Carradin
Saool said:
I suspect that given Hudson is in prime position to go back to No.1 next cycle 'our' non-aggression pacts and peace treaties have become even more porous than normal.
Click to expand...
In this case though, what does and does not happen to Mahon makes zero difference for Hudson's standing next week. We currently have the same number of control systems, and he has five expansions which are basically unopposable, while we have three, one of which is basically unwinnable and two which could go either way. So no matter what, Hudson will start the next cycle ahead by at least 3 control systems, which should easily secure him #1 in the rankings. Regardless of what happens to us. Realistically, the only way Hudson doesn't get #1 is if he goes into turmoil.
 

Apos

Apos
Carradin said:
In this case though, what does and does not happen to Mahon makes zero difference for Hudson's standing next week. We currently have the same number of control systems, and he has five expansions which are basically unopposable, while we have three, one of which is basically unwinnable and two which could go either way. So no matter what, Hudson will start the next cycle ahead by at least 3 control systems, which should easily secure him #1 in the rankings. Regardless of what happens to us. Realistically, the only way Hudson doesn't get #1 is if he goes into turmoil.
Click to expand...

Well, we have the last profitable systems, Sirius is kinda dry by now and will fortify with more ease.

I'm waiting for Winters to lose profitable systems on purpose so that Hudson snatches them at some point in the future as well. They are already being a perfect shield for him by attracting all the attention to them.

Which is fine as a strategy, but they could at least stop -ing everyone.

There's also a lot of imperials and federals who,having nothing to do with their reddits, just want to see us gone before they fight each other. Not sure why, but a major faction that is not a dictator in disguise just doesn't sit well on their tongue.

At least Winters seems to be upholding their end of the deal I guess.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom