Powerplay Powerplay Analysis, Cycle 14, Fortification/Undermining - From the Alliance Office of Statistics

How accurate is the data?

The data is a mix between raw data from Frontier, grabbed at an unknown time shortly before the cycle turn over, combined with my tweaking the data to make it match the game results.

This means that I've gone through and set fortification and undermining progress to hit triggers, if the game data said this is what happened. As such this is not a 100% accurate analysis of the outcome of the cycle, but it's fairly close.

Where is it?

You can find it all here, including the raw numbers for each system. I am a fan of open data, and I see no reason to withhold this data from those who are interested.

Where are the tables and graphs?

Well, there aren't any graphs in this analysis. You have to look at the spreadsheet for that. There are a few tables here to show some of the things I found interesting.

Did you do all this yourself?

Crickey, no! I had a lot of help from others. Frontier for providing the raw data (though I'd very much like to see the final end result raw numbers released on Thursdays at 07:20 AM UTC) and CMDR Addler for help with the graphs and a lot of the ideas for analysis.

Enough chit that - on with the show!

Just two caveats before I start. "*Effective merits*" are merits that reached their target and didn't overshoot. If a system has a trigger of 5,000 and it gets 4,999, those 4,999 merits are wasted. If that system gets 5,001 merits, 1 merit is wasted. "*Grinder systems*" are systems that hit 150+% of their trigger values.

Fortification

PowerEffective MeritsEffectiveness
Zachary Hudson266,35972.9%
Aisling Duval210,53548.0%
Arissa Lavigny-Duval195,39844.3%
Felicia Winters190,39786.5%
Edmund Mahon167,24874.1%
Li Yong-Rui 140,29668.0%
Zemina Torval102,16280.6%
Pranav Antal82,99687.6%
Denton Patreus80,22273.4%
Archon Delaine73,30887.4%
Total1,508,92165.26%

Hudson generated the largest amount of effective merits, which resulted in him hitting the fortification trigger in 41 out of 54 systems - the highest count on the board this week.

The three most effective fortifiers are Antal (87.6%), Delaine (87.4%) and Winters (86.5%).

Top ten over-fortified systems:

SystemPowerMeritsPercent
GuathitiA Lavigny-Duval164,6016,516%
Lambda-1 TucanaeAisling Duval95,3751,893%
Groombridge 1618Zachary Hudson62,3651,238%
Karsuki TiAisling Duval58,4561,159%
KalakLi Yong-Rui44,425879%
UgriviriiA Lavigny-Duval18,796731%
PhracaniA Lavigny-Duval16,779664%
AnumA Lavigny-Duval9,347351%
NecheFelicia Winters16,117318%
AnlaveZachary Hudson15,472303%
Total501,7331,235%

Arissa sits heavily on the throne of fortification grinders with 4 out of the 10 system, followed by Aisling and Hudson with 2 each.

Undermining

PowerEffective MeritsEffectiveness
Zachary Hudson422,71643.0%
Felicia Winters379,16734.3%
Zemina Torval334,63758.7%
Edmund Mahon322,59824.0%
Archon Delaine320,57729.6%
Arissa Lavigny-Duval262,9770.1%
Li Yong-Rui132,07920.5%
Denton Patreus125,56850.9%
Pranav Antal31,00644.5%
Aisling Duval12,93964.6%
Total2,344,257 36.4%

Hudson was hit with the highest number of effective undermining merits this week, which is why 41 out of 54 of his systems hit their undermining triggers - the highest count this week. The most effective undermining was targeted at Arissa, with 70.1% efficiency, whereas Sirius was hit with the least effective undermining with only 20.5% efficiency

Top ten most superfluously undermined systems:

SystemPowerEffective MeritsEffectiveness
LughEdmund Mahon310,444,095%
HeverdudunaLi Yong-Rui 265,413,510%
NgbatoArchon Delaine 189,032,323%
HuichiArchon Delaine 161,0651,925%
WW Piscis AustriniZachary Hudson 115,681,504%
Kokoimudji Edmund Mahon 78,481,181%
Atropos Zachary Hudson 99,31,083%
Lusonda Archon Delaine 88,38977%
Quan Gurus Edmund Mahon 54,87803%
Leesti Edmund Mahon 58,56801%
Total1,421,2151,814%

Mahon sits heavily on the throne of wasteful undermining, with 4 out of the top 10 systems, followed by Delaine with 3 and Hudson with 2.

Conclusions

Fortification

The fortifications aren't that bad. With 34.7% waste, and 65.3% of the waste is concentrated in 22 grinder systems, and 87.9% of that is concentrated in the top ten grinder systems. This is one of the clear proofs that grinders are abound.

Undermining

As usual, we're seeing what can best be described as a metric ton of undermining, the vast majority of which is wasted. 6.4 million merits worth of undermining, 3.4 million of it in 107 grinder systems (52.8% of all merits dumped into 21.3% of all control systems), 1.4 million (41.2%) of the undermining grinder merits dumped into only 10 systems (22.1% of all merits dumped into 2% of all control systems), and a massive 4,095,639 (63.6%) of all undermining merits are completely wasted.

Overall

Let's put these grinder numbers into perspective. To maintain rank 5, you need 5,334 merits/week. Let's say 6,000 just to be on the safe side. The fortification grinder systems' waste account for 524,542 merits. This is the equivalent of 87 rank 5 players fed through waste alone. The undermining grinder systems' waste account for 3,405,349. This is the equivalent of 567 rank 5 players fed through waste.

All told that's upwards of 32,700,000,000 (32.7 BILLION) credits pumped into the economy every single week, just to feed the grinders. That's the equivalent of pumping out 222 Anacodas worth of credits for complete wasted effort.

I don't know what economic advisers the various powerplay figureheads have hired, but personally I don't think they're fit for their jobs. They should be sent out and airlock, feet first into the nearest brown dwarf. Why would anyone in their right mind pay you 50 million credits for being this wasteful? These 10 people are supposed to be the best and the brightest, but to my mind they seem more like complete dimwits, handing out blank cheques to any Tom, and Harry who says they've been helpful.

It's insane, and honestly it should be stopped.
 
Thanks very much for taking over this from the sainted Cadoc (who I like to imagine has ascended to a higher plane of consciousness as his reward). I liked some of the new ways you found to try to interpret the data (esp. the effective/wasted categories). +rep as a bonus for making the point below so amusingly:


All told that's upwards of 32,700,000,000 (32.7 BILLION) credits pumped into the economy every single week, just to feed the grinders. That's the equivalent of pumping out 222 Anacodas worth of credits for complete wasted effort.

I don't know what economic advisers the various powerplay figureheads have hired, but personally I don't think they're fit for their jobs. They should be sent out and airlock, feet first into the nearest brown dwarf. Why would anyone in their right mind pay you 50 million credits for being this wasteful? These 10 people are supposed to be the best and the brightest, but to my mind they seem more like complete dimwits, handing out blank cheques to any Tom, and Harry who says they've been helpful.

It's insane, and honestly it should be stopped.
 
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