considering it doesn't take more than one player to undermine a system by themselves (from 0 to trigger), and that the majority of power play participation is done in solo / private because it's easier, a balance is definitely in order as it currently favors solo/private far more than open. Undermining, expansion and fortification are all balanced in favor of non-open modes currently.
Reducing merits in those modes will do one of two things (both of which work to fix this imbalance).
1. It reduces the effectiveness of using those modes to grind merits by reducing the number of merits you get per effort expended.
2. It drives some players into open where the interaction with humans either directly or indirectly limits easy grindability.
The problem isn't related to casual players at all it's related to how effective hard-core players are. If 1 player can fortify an entire system by themselves or 1 player can undermine one by themselves (talking over 10,000 merits to trigger in both cases) then you multiply that by who knows how many people and bonus, throw them in solo / private where they are completely unopposed by any meaningful deterrent but time and you have the entire PP mechanic being driven by a minority of players able to push a majority of effective effort.
I'm not just talking made up numbers here. I've undermined systems in a single evening by myself in open and I've fortified them practically by myself as well. Sure it costs about a hundred million to fast track 10,000 merits for fortification but I made that back in two days (and I only play during the day once during the weekend and a couple hours a night on one or two weekdays a week). That's doing it in open. It's obviously quicker and easier in solo / private mode and it's evident that most people have figured this out as that's where the majority of pp participation takes place. And since it's a race every week, it drives more and more players to follow suit or be at a disadvantage.
You can undermine roughly 1000 merits an hour by yourself, and currently the game multiplies that for any participating wingmen you may have (an incorrect behavior). 200 merits an hour is someone who isn't really even playing power play. Again, the problem isn't someone contributing only their free quota and possibly undermining 10 ships an hour. It's the power users who easily do many many many times that and do it with impunity in easy game modes getting the same credit as players who do it in a mode where there is at least a chance at meaningful opposition.
The problem is, by trying to punish the "hard core" players that are stupid enough or insane enough to spend 100,000,000 credits just to gain 50,000,000 credits, the small/casual player will also be punished.
The smaller/casual player will be harmed far more than the hard core player who already has 500,000,000 million credits and 3,000,000 merits running in a fully loaded out Conda.
If I am a casual player, in a Private Group (see signature) I can easily make and maintain my Rank 4 standings every cycle during my few hours of game play. If everything is nerfed, it is going to take me longer and longer to try to maintain my rank, and PP will become a true merit grind, not allowing me to do anything else during my few hours of play other then try to maintain my Rank.
However, the hard core gamer can still make the same amount they do every cycle, just by running 1 or 2 additional trips in their Conda to a fortification system. So the proposal for the nerf is only an inconvenience for them, while for the casual gamer, it has a real impact on them.
It wont force the casual gamer into Open Play, it would probably force them to quit PP completely and PP will only end up with the hard core gamers that are still running their 2 or 3 runs for 10,000 merits in Group or Solo Play where they are not PvP cannon fodder.
The only thing nerfing the payouts would do in the long run is eliminate the casual players.
True and effective changes wont come about by punishing players, but by adjusting the mechanics involved in how systems are Fortified and Undermined.
The 2 biggest issues I personally see, and there are a LOT of complaints about, are over Fortification and no way to divest of bad systems.
Both of those could be resolved with a relatively simple change to the way Fortification and Undermining work. Although I have no clue how easy or hard it would be for the Devs to code the change.
Fortification/Undermining is currently a Race to Tie. Both sides try to hit their trigger for the cycle, putting the system into a Nul state with the controlling faction keeping the system.
This results in someone like ALD, with a very large player base, able to keep all of her control systems and at the same time, add 1-2 new expansions each cycle.
Instead of a Race to Tie, I think it should be changed to a Trigger + Overage with the Turmoil state changed to a per system instead of per Faction basis.
This would mean any system Undermined beyond 100% is not Fortified higher than the Undermining number would be considered Undermined.
As an example, let's use Lugh. Mostly because it is a system off the top of my head that I have heard of, and constantly has a battle for Fortification/Undermining.
If the mechanic was changed to Trigger + Overage, then whichever side had the highest number at the end of the cycle would "win" the battle. This would mean that if the system is Fortified to 300% and Undermined to 289% the system would be considered Fortified.
However, if the numbers were reversed, and the Undermining was 300% and the Fortification was 289%, then the system would be considered Undermined, and would drop into Turmoil.
The controlling faction would then need to win the battle during the next cycle, or risk losing the system completely.
If the system remains in the Undermined State for the following cycle, then the system is a loss to the Controlling PP faction and the system becomes Neutral/Anarchy/Uncontrolled for 2 cycles (cooling off period), with no system within 15ly of Lugh being available for Preparation. After 2 cycles, the system would become available for Preparation by any PP Faction.
This would result in a true Battle for the system, regardless if the player was in Open/Group/Solo mode.
It would allow for divesting of bad systems, by allowing the system itself to drop into Turmoil and be "freed" through Undermining.
It could also concentrate defending players into a limited number of systems, while allowing other systems to be challenged by factions with a smaller player base.
I think we would see large factions, like ALD, be hit with more challenges to their standing, in a way that could effectively whittle away at her control systems and force her out of the #1 standing.
No matter how many players are in her faction, it would be nearly impossible to guarantee that she maintains control over all of them beyond a Trigger + Overage state.
It would ensure that systems that are lost are done in a strategic manner, while not harming the power to the point of annihilation in 2 cycles by divesting them of their most valuable systems and forcing them to keep the worst ones.
Turmoil would make sense to anyone at that point. If you do not properly fortify a system, you can lose it. Right now, if you do not fortify enough systems, you may keep the non fortified system, and lose one you DID fortify. This makes no sense.
That would be like the US going to war in Iran and suddenly finding that they lost the military bases in Texas.
Numbers wise, yes it makes sense. You lose the highest upkeep cost system, but that system may also be the highest income generator too, which means you just lost the income you could have had that would get you back out of Turmoil.
Powers are basically punished for having high value/cost systems that contribute positively to the base, while being forced to keep systems that harm them.