Season 24 Squadron Results - graphs and analysis

Previously: seasons 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,8, 9,10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 (plus How large are squadrons?)

SquadronSeason24.png

On each graph, points are on the Y-axis, and squadron position on the leaderboard is on the X-axis. Both scales are logarithmic. The light grey line (diamond marker) is the numbers for the previous season, the dark grey line (triangle marker) is the numbers for the same season last year (season 17), and all stats are PC only. As in previous seasons, the approximate power-law distribution continues, allowing estimates of total activity to be made without spending too long reading the boards.
(Political is excluded, because there are well-known exploits to allow very high scores, and because it's not clear even without the exploits what it's supposed to be measuring: the in-game description of "large and happy faction" is clearly wrong - possibly this will change if they ever implement BGS happiness properly)

Anti Xeno (287 pages)
Winners: Plague with ~6% of all points. AXI and The Wing of Destiny take the other trophies.
A third trophy and first Gold for the Plague squadron, while AXI returns to the top spots for the first time since season 20. Overall activity, despite the intense fighting over Salvation's Guardian artefact collection, is very slightly down on the previous record-breaking season, but this is mainly because of the significant reduction in the activity of the Marauder's Vanguard, who end their eight-season trophy streak by coming fifth this time - as you can see from the graph, activity outside the top 10 is significantly up as the Thargoid conflict escalates.

Plague, incidentally, are being extremely consistent: their score of 120,176,000,000 is exactly the same as they got in both seasons 22 and 23. If anyone from the squadron - only two members, too! - wants to talk about how and why they're doing that, it's an interesting achievement.

Combat (2639 pages)
Winners: Talon Order with ~1% of all points. Stellanebula Project and Kisel's Squadron take the other trophies.
A new entrant on the leaderboards with Talon Order taking their first Gold, and a return for Kisel's Squadron after a few seasons away. Overall, activity is down across the board, making this the quietest season since the combat rebalance, and slightly less than the busiest pre-rebalance season 11.

CQC (65 pages)
Winners: We Rock You Roll with ~20% of all points. Deep Space Intruders and CQC Discord.
Deep Space Intruders take the Silver in this season, which falls to yet another record low - a seventh of the peak in season 15 - with not just the instancing split to contend with, the last three weeks of the season have been heavily affected by bug 50903 which causes extremely frequent crashes for everyone, making it virtually impossible to score at all.

Frontier say they are aware of the bug, but if we have to wait for update 13 for a fix, there's a good chance that next season will be even lower still.

Exploration (2874 pages)
Winners: Winged Hussars with ~4% of all points, Hutton Orbital Truckers and Explorers of the Anarchy take the other trophies.
Winged Hussars return to the exploration board having previously taken the Gold in season 6, and Hutton return from season 14, while the Bronze is taken by a new-to-exploration squadron (though their third trophy, having won AX trophies in seasons 6 and 15). Overall activity, however, falls to a record low - the total squadron count is very marginally up, but less is being scanned.

Powerplay (82 pages)
Winners: Madmen of the Mogonjo with ~12% of all points. Lavigny's Legion and Federal Republican Command take the other trophies.
Powerplay down a bit on last season, but still fairly busy, as Madmen of the Mogonjo take their first Gold. The Federation returns to the trophies too, as Hudson's supporters get their first trophy since season 11.

Trade (2446 pages)
Winners: Canonn with ~1% of all points. Kisel's Squadron and Marauders Vanguard take the other trophies.
Canonn get their first Gold and second trade trophy, and here's where Marauders Vanguard have been taking time off AX work. Overall activity, going very much against the trend, is substantially up - this is the busiest post-Odyssey season and the third highest all-time, with scores as you can see from the graph up at all ranks. The Golconda Tritium CG with its extremely large available trade profits likely contributed a lot to this jump, so a good chance that season 25 will revert to more normal levels.

Other comments
A very quiet season overall - CQC, Combat and Exploration all at historic lows, and participation counts remaining mostly flat. AX and Trade are remaining high due to plot events, so we may see more dominance of those in activity in future too ... equally, CQC's further decline is mainly due to a serious bug: perhaps next season there'll be a bug where it's impossible to gain Combat rank.

The "last year" comparison is with season 17, the one during which Odyssey was released, so next report will be comparing with 18 - the first full Odyssey season.
 
Plague, incidentally, are being extremely consistent: their score of 120,176,000,000 is exactly the same as they got in both seasons 22 and 23. If anyone from the squadron - only two members, too! - wants to talk about how and why they're doing that, it's an interesting achievement.
Now that you mentioned that, I just noticed something off on the exploration leaderboards too. Season 24 had a one-player squadron called Renamed Dragons doing 8,845,591,215 points (#5), and Season 23 had the very same squadron doing 8,845,591,215 points (#3). Even more, Seasons 22 (#5) and 21 (#4) also had a squadron doing 8,845,591,215 points, but unfortunately, I have no record of who the squadrons were. Do you happen to have screenshots or records of who the top ten were? I'd be curious if all four might have been the same player.
 
Well, I found a screenshot for Season 21, and the #4 squadron with the same 8,845,591,215 points then was "Come suck my **** Frontier": I assume that that became Renamed Dragons. Back at the time, I remember they also appeared on the top 10 right near the end of the season. So yeah, to me this seems highly suspicious of cheating, especially if it'll turn out that season 22 had the same squadron doing the same score.
 
So yeah, to me this seems highly suspicious
if i get this right ... it is suspicious to you as it requires a very precise hand-in of exploration data to get those points? and same goes for AX? no too familiar with how squadron points are scored.
 
if i get this right ... it is suspicious to you as it requires a very precise hand-in of exploration data to get those points?
Yes. Every 2 Cr of exploration data sold gives 1 leaderboard point, and exploration data payouts aren't nice fixed round numbers. There's also that there are a few others sources of exploration squadron leaderboard points as well: passenger missions, driving an SRV around, discovering new (to you) materials.
It sounds highly improbable to me that a player could avoid all those, and sell the exact same amounts of data over multiple seasons. Theoretically it's possible, but practically, it's suspicious.
 
Anti Xeno (287 pages)
Winners: Plague with ~6% of all points. AXI and The Wing of Destiny take the other trophies.
A third trophy and first Gold for the Plague squadron, while AXI returns to the top spots for the first time since season 20. Overall activity, despite the intense fighting over Salvation's Guardian artefact collection, is very slightly down on the previous record-breaking season, but this is mainly because of the significant reduction in the activity of the Marauder's Vanguard, who end their eight-season trophy streak by coming fifth this time - as you can see from the graph, activity outside the top 10 is significantly up as the Thargoid conflict escalates.
This isn't right at all. VANG definitely placed third (to finally finish their collection of 1st/2nd/3rd trophies, so you're mostly right about them being the main drop in activity), and I think AXI was way ahead in first place. I don't recall seeing Plague or Wing of Destiny anywhere near the top, second place was occupied by EDANZ the last time I checked but I'm not sure if they held it until the end.

I think you might have been seeing some sort of glitch in the matrix that was showing you previous season's results instead of the most recent season. Both Plague and WoD have basically disappeared since that "unpredictable" season.
 
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I think you might have been seeing some sort of glitch in the matrix that was showing you previous season's results instead of the most recent season

A glitch I can certainly believe, but if so it's a persistent one - here's what I see this morning.
LastAX.png


What do you see on the same view?

Hmm. This plus some of the oddities seen before and the display issues discussed in the season 22/23 reports makes me think there's more to it, but if you could provide a screenshot which doesn't have this issue that would be useful.
 
Not in a place to access the game at the moment but I can tell you the entries for ranks 1 and 3 should not be there. AXI, ED ANZ, VANG, Kisel's and LL all match what I remember from last season.

What I do currently have on hand is proof of VANG's third place:
 

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Alright - so my theory is this:
  • The "this season" boards behave sensibly - individual squadrons go monotonically upwards, so does the score required for any particular position, so does the participant count
  • The "last season" boards (see S22 and S23 reports for more details) see a very substantial jump in the number of participating squadrons, which usually exhibits as changes outside the top 10, being much more noticeable at top 1000 than at top 100, etc.
  • We have some cases of small squadrons (Plague - 2, The Wing of Destiny - 6, Renamed Dragons - 1) getting a leaderboard or top 10 place one season, and then scoring exactly the same in one or more subsequent seasons.
  • The "General purpose" boards almost always see rises in last-season participant count, while the "Specialist" boards do fluctuate.
So, I think the simplest theory which explains these observations is as follows:

The last season boards do not display the scores for the last season. They display the scores for each squadron in the last season it had some activity. So if a squadron completely ceases activity in Season 24, it will keep the scores it had in Season 23. (If it does some trade only in S24, it'll disappear from the other "last season" boards, however) By the looks of Renamed Dragons, this can persist indefinitely.

This also explains some other observations too - the way the total squadron activity generally seemed much more stable than other player activity measures, for example.

So, since this is an unfixable bug:
  1. All statistical analysis is strongly advised not to use the Last Season boards for any purpose. In theory you could manually filter out duplicates for at least the top N, but in practice no-one has time for that as you'd need to accurately record figures well outside the top N to handle seasons with significant drops on the previous. @marx I know you use them, not sure if anyone else does. The Last Season Exploration board might be vaguely useful as an estimate for "total existing squadrons", perhaps?
  2. I will be switching collection of squadron score data to the last day of the current season. This of course has the major disadvantage that if I forget or can't make it online that day, no reports for that season. Historic time series will be largely cleared [1] and Season 25 will start over as a new baseline. As this won't account for last-minute rushes to hand in, I will no longer be tracking which squadrons actually get the awards.
[1] Season 1 is probably still valid, and I have some partial valid data for Season 23 from the earlier investigations, so it's not a total loss.
 
Interesting. Digging a bit, it seems that the Renamed Dragons' sole CMDR hasn't logged in for five months, so that's pretty strong evidence for the scores of inactive (in the season) squadrons getting reused on the Last Season board.

Come this season's end, for my part, I'll compare both "current season on the last day" and the usual "last season on the first day" scores. Having numbers on what's the practical difference is should help. For exploration, I think I might have to discard the #100-#1,000 range, but we'll see. Still, the exploration season is only six days in, and there are 320 squadron pages already, meaning 3,200 squadrons: I think the top 100 should be safe then. However, in this case, the exploration leaderboard does benefit from the fact that it's trivially easy for a squadron to appear on it.

Since I do two fits on mine, I did a quick redo of my data, taking out the #100-#1,000 fit and leaving only the #10-#100 fit then, and comparing how totals and such changed: the result is not bad. A couple of seasons traded places with the ones before them, but only with small margins, and the general picture is still pretty much mostly the same.
Of course, if I used the estimated total compared with the crowdsourced data for more calculations, that would have been an entirely different matter, so I guess it's a good thing now that I didn't. Generally, the #100-#1,000 range accounted for half of the total, a few percentages below or above for most seasons.

The number of squadron pages will probably have to be discarded though, but I haven't used that for much anyway. I suppose the three seasons after Odyssey when the number of pages actually decreased was due to more squadrons disbanding: at least, I would assume that disbanded squadrons don't appear on the last season results anymore.
 
Here's the progression on the combat leaderboard during Season 23, compared with the value reported (as 100%) as "last season", for ranks 1, 10, 100 and 1000.
combat23.png

I'd say in normal circumstances 1-100 should be fairly reliable on the general-purpose leaderboards for getting a rough idea of volume ... season 24's AX is of course a complete mess even within the top 10, though, and the specialist boards are probably very vulnerable to that sort of thing where a small group plays very enthusiastically for a month or two and then vanishes.
 
Honestly the AX board isn't a good indicator of activity anyway, since the bonds are no longer lost upon death most people will just carry them around indefinitely until they're required for something (like a fancy paint job).
 
Possibly - the total amounts since Odyssey don't seem all that much different to the amounts pre-Odyssey but post-rebalance, though.

(All of the boards have big caveats as indicators of activity, one way or another)
 
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