Powerplay Some Pie Charts Displaying a Snapshot of Cycle 42 Preparation Attempts

[Dracaya Tzentchel]

Some Pie Charts Displaying a Snapshot of Cycle 42 Preparation Attempts (Updated with final cycle data)

So I should preface this topic by saying that I am an Aisling Duval pledge and as such I created the following charts with intent to display the ludicrous amount of preparation work going on within Aisling's PP faction, both in the attempt to sabotage us with pushing huge amounts of prep into Chnumar and the counter attempt to prep HIP 95350.

I will also say that I originally only intended these charts for use amongst my associates with Aisling Duval and so presentation is a little lacking, but they've told me that it's important that I show them to people here to give a clearer idea of just how much effort is being expended this cycle.

So without further ado gaze upon yonder Google Sheet.

The data shows what is already well established to some people: The Aisling 5th Column exists and it is able to shift completely ridiculous amounts of material to achieve it's goals with the preparation of Chnumar consisting of 62% of all AD preps and near enough 42% of all preps, at least at the time I took that snapshot.

What's also clear is that even without the Chnumar preparation effort, AD preparations still account for more than any other power's total top preps by quite a large margin, of course with extra motivation, so it doesn't seem to be a matter of 'laziness', as some have suggested, that is causing AD's problems.

Of course none of this data tells us how we can fix the problem, other than the fact that this huge amount of fast-tracked preparations is clearly the result of flaws in how credits can be earned outside of powerplay in figures which allow a relatively small number of players to outperform everybody else​ who plays powerplay legitimately.

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Edit 24/03/2016 - Adding in final preparation data charts

So Cycle 42 has now ended and we have the final picture of just what went on in this controversial week (But then it wouldn't be politics without a little controversy).

And here you can see the final charts

At the end the final share of all preparations for Chnumar dropped to ~30%, still a significant portion of the devotes resources for a single system as well as 52% of all of Aisling Duval's preperations. Closely following it the counter-prep of HIP 95350 accounts for 22% of all preps and ~38% of Aisling Duval's total preps.

Even without Chnumar in the data Aisling Duval's total preparations account for 40% of all preparation resources devoted that cycle while ALD stayed at roughly a third of preparations throughout the week if Chnumar is omitted from the data.

In total AD pledged players, loyal, 5th column or just plain ol' merit grinders, shifted a grand total of 691136 preparation resources, which translates to ~60% of all of the preparations made this past cycle a pretty staggering statistic but then there was no competition from either Hudson or Winters who are likely to have performed similarly to ALD.

Regardless there is a clear disproportion skewed toward Aisling Duval in cycle 42 and this seems to have caught the attention of Frontier. We shall see what changes they have planned in the coming weeks and what effect they will have on the data.

 

[MONTItheRed]

It's astonishing to think how many credits the 5th Column has access to.
125 cutters went through Chnumar in one 24-hour period. If they were running max loads, that's moving 99 thousand tons of prep per day. To fast track a cutter load would be more than 7 million credits!

 

[Arklar]

It's worth noting that comparitive figures from mid-cycle can be misleading because many powers save preparation until near the end.

That said, the Chnumar prep is currently at 3.3 billion credits invested. It is currently the third highest prep total since data was released, just ahead of Chnumar 4 weeks ago, and just slightly behind Chnumar 6 weeks ago. The closest non-Aisling prep (DR Crucis for Winters) is more than 2 billion credits in the distance.

 

[Dracaya Tzentchel]

It's worth noting that comparitive figures from mid-cycle can be misleading because many powers save preparation until near the end.

I'm aiming to get another set of comparisons made on Wednesday night, however I think regardless the amount of preps going on here are way more than they should be even if you go with the 'they are just merit grinders' argument that some have.

It's clear that it's way too easy for a small subset of players to generate a massive amount of credits, which is a problem with affects more than just Power Play, which can then be used to essentially hold one of the power play factions hostage, especially one which isn't able to just fortify and forget like those with positive CC baselines.

Chances are that Robigo will be fixed in the next major patch, but I don't think that really solves the underlying problem that it's just way too easy to flood power play using amassed credits. It means that Power Play fails at two fundamental things: The ability for individuals to have a meaningful contribution to the politics of the galaxy and the ability for groups to direct the politics of the galaxy.

Individuals can't really contribute to power play right now, because the amount of preps and forts required to make an impact are so huge that individual player contributions can get completely swamped. Groups can't really contribute right now because a small number of people with a large amount of credits have access to way more power and influence than they should have. (Although there is an argument about how money dictates politics but it's not exactly 'fun' or 'fair' from a gameplay point of view).

The cause of both of these problems? Fast tracking. The current values of fortification and prep are determined based on the potential for a near infinite amount of fortification / prep, meaning that as we see time and again with Chnumar a small number of individuals can completely outperform everybody else. Even if you fix Robigo I'm sure that in time another 'get rich quick' scheme will take it's place.

The solution I'd personally suggest is to make resource allocation daily rather than half-hourly. This means that players don't have to face the prospect of sitting for hours on end in a station to fill up their cargo holds with power play materials and the key reason fast tracking exists is no longer needed. I would then probably want there to be a weekly maximum of resources per pilot, so that players who can't play every day of the week can then pay credits to fast track those allocations, but only drawing from the weekly maximum.

I think that solves both issues fairly well.

 

[OrgyMeyer]

It's worth noting that comparitive figures from mid-cycle can be misleading because many powers save preparation until near the end.

That said, the Chnumar prep is currently at 3.3 billion credits invested. It is currently the third highest prep total since data was released, just ahead of Chnumar 4 weeks ago, and just slightly behind Chnumar 6 weeks ago. The closest non-Aisling prep (DR Crucis for Winters) is more than 2 billion credits in the distance.

The real question is how they are making that money. Is it through cheating or just playing the game from the start? Seems like a large number of players to be maxed out in such a way.

I was thinking that they must be profiting on the return route in some way to keep the credits positive. I imagine if that route was suddenly less viable, you'd see a drop in 5c participation. Something for the bgs guys to look at perhaps?

Failing that, didn't we have a way to shut down stations? How many stations are there in chnumar anyways? Is that plan even feasible?

 

[PeachSlices]

it is worthy of note that 5c prop their credit drops via cheating at smuggling, using extended jump range hacks.

 

[PulsarShark]

Failing that, didn't we have a way to shut down stations? How many stations are there in chnumar anyways? Is that plan even feasible?

We'd have to work the BGS in some way to give each target station a black market. And that may not be compatible with efforts to install a Chnumar government that makes triggers less friendly to 5c.

 

[CMDR Atmora]

I think that you, like many who have attempted to pin down the size of the 5C problem, have forgotten one factor in your calculations.... Grinders, the Fifth Column only needs to get a system to the top of the prep list and then let the Grinders take it from there. In a power that attracts as many individuals as Aisling, it is fair to assume that there is a large proportion of the Aisling pledges that are uninformed grinders, not 5C. These Grinders (who are not 5C), I would argue, are the cause of most of the issue, the Fifth Column merely is able to direct them through swift action early in the cycle.
I am not criticizing you or your data, it is interesting and it does tell a story, I just think that it is not the whole story.

 

[Martin Schou]

it is worthy of note that 5c prop their credit drops via cheating at smuggling, using extended jump range hacks.

If you know this, then you clearly know who the players are, so why not list their names?

- - - - - Additional Content Posted / Auto Merge - - - - -

Failing that, didn't we have a way to shut down stations?

The unknown artefact shut downs do not remove access to contacts, which means that PowerPlay contacts remain available.

 

[Dracaya Tzentchel]

I think that you, like many who have attempted to pin down the size of the 5C problem, have forgotten one factor in your calculations.... Grinders, the Fifth Column only needs to get a system to the top of the prep list and then let the Grinders take it from there. In a power that attracts as many individuals as Aisling, it is fair to assume that there is a large proportion of the Aisling pledges that are uninformed grinders, not 5C. These Grinders (who are not 5C), I would argue, are the cause of most of the issue, the Fifth Column merely is able to direct them through swift action early in the cycle.
I am not criticizing you or your data, it is interesting and it does tell a story, I just think that it is not the whole story.

If it's grinders that just leaves more questions:

Why is AD's grinder 'problem' disproportionately huge compared to say Mahon who has arguably the best bonuses for traders?
Why is it that these 'grinders' were able to amass such a huge amount of preparations at the very start of the week? (Within 3 - 4 days)?
If AD does have a larger grinder population how come it seems to be tens of times larger than anybody else's going by the numbers? How come they aren't doing their merit grinding through the much faster / easier methods of fortification and undermining?

The idea that it's an effort of a 5th column requires less assumptions than the merit grinder argument at this point. Especially since the huge figures to come out of Chnumar happened virtually overnight and it's taken a huge organised effort from 'legitimate' AD power players to come up with the second largest figure.

 

[aspiringexpatriate]

If it's grinders that just leaves more questions:

Why is AD's grinder 'problem' disproportionately huge compared to say Mahon who has arguably the best bonuses for traders?
Why is it that these 'grinders' were able to amass such a huge amount of preparations at the very start of the week? (Within 3 - 4 days)?
If AD does have a larger grinder population how come it seems to be tens of times larger than anybody else's going by the numbers? How come they aren't doing their merit grinding through the much faster / easier methods of fortification and undermining?

The idea that it's an effort of a 5th column requires less assumptions than the merit grinder argument at this point. Especially since the huge figures to come out of Chnumar happened virtually overnight and it's taken a huge organised effort from 'legitimate' AD power players to come up with the second largest figure.

Because Mahon has fewer players pledged. Just because they grind by trading doesn't mean they are only traders, or that they are intelligently maximizing the power play mechanics for their efforts. Also, why do you think fortification is faster or easier than preparation? Fortification forces everyone into one system, and over the past 9 months, those HQ systems have been known to be dangerous. That alone is a very good reason for there to be more preparation grinders than fortification grinders.

Let's assume that every single Aisling grinder has an Imperial Cutter with 700t cargo capacity. They've been collecting 50m credit paychecks for at least 40 weeks now. We've already assumed that these self-interested grinders are not necessarily the smartest players, so fast-tracking 5433 tonnes at 50 million for a 50 million weekly salary doesn't sound like a bad idea to them. And if they're using the scripts to auto-load the allotments, they likely spend a lot less in fast-tracking. In 7 hours, they could easily load 14 allotments of 50 tonnes. Do that for seven days, and you are only a tiny bit shy of maintaining your Rating without fast-tracking at all.

With fortification supplies, you can jump to the nearest control system, deliver, buy palladium, and return. With preparation, you can jump to Chnumar and return. Chnumar is within 20Ly of four Aisling Control Systems. Aisling's control systems have increased supply and demand of high value goods, so they'll generate 3-4k/tonne on every trade trip. Roughly making over 2 million for every palladium source to an Aisling control system. So, yes, they will have a lot of credits. This return likely changes with fortification, because the control systems with palladium sources will have increased demand, so the prices will be higher, eating into the margins.

Now, you've seen how easily the mechanics of Aisling's power bonuses and power play's weekly salary encourages grinder preparation, especially to palladium sources. Add to that that power play's user interface implies that sending more tonnage to #1 or #2 on your Preparation list is a good thing and you have an unstoppable grinder problem.

As stated elsewhere, if you have half a dozen 5C preparers, they can fast-track and push 4200 tonnes into Chnumar within the first 6 hours of the cycle, likely putting it at #1. Well, every single preparation grinder will simply start funneling in after that. There is no good reason for them not to, especially as the game does nothing to indicate that it's a bad decision.

Presumably, this type of system helps explain why so many nearby, but poor CC return systems were selected for preparation by Aisling players during the early Power Play, when there was 900cc or more every week for preparation.

What can be done about it? I don't know. We've tried many different strategies over at ALD, and most of our preparation grinders aren't focused on any single target anymore, but we still have systems like Murare showing up at #2. And I don't even begin to understand our current #1, which does virtually nothing useful for the Power, but requires a massive amount of effort to prepare.

 

[Brownasaur]

I think that you, like many who have attempted to pin down the size of the 5C problem, have forgotten one factor in your calculations.... Grinders, the Fifth Column only needs to get a system to the top of the prep list and then let the Grinders take it from there. In a power that attracts as many individuals as Aisling, it is fair to assume that there is a large proportion of the Aisling pledges that are uninformed grinders, not 5C. These Grinders (who are not 5C), I would argue, are the cause of most of the issue, the Fifth Column merely is able to direct them through swift action early in the cycle.
I am not criticizing you or your data, it is interesting and it does tell a story, I just think that it is not the whole story.

It sounds difficult to measure the number of grinders, but if you have any suggestions on how to get at this I would give it a try.

I do not personally believe that grinders are the problem, at least to the degree that you suggest, as our initial prep plan this cycle was Conii, and for at least a day it was at the top of the list. If what you are saying was a major impact factor, I would expect that Conii would have gotten the runaway momentum from the grinders, not Chnumar.

Another way to think about it is that it takes about 3750 merits over 4 weeks to get shields, or ~950 merits per week on average which would suggest that this week there are, in the neighborhood of ~350 shield grinders that managed to "stupidly" oppose the goals of the main AD factions. This seems very unlikely to me, especially when looking at the prep numbers from other factions. Our "stupid grinder" population would need to be ~100x larger than that of pretty much every other faction in order to participate at the scale we are seeing.

Fingers crossed that Frontier fixes this one way or another as fighting prepwars on this scale is about as fun as paying your garbage man to punch you in the nose.

 

[Ant_Solo]

Might be worth pointing out that this is almost certainly considered cheating and breaking the EULA. I know a method was published on the Aisling Reddit, then some time after I pointed out the problem with it the post was removed and, as I understand it, moved to a private Aisling forum.


3. Licence Restrictions
You are not permitted:
(c) use cheats, automation software, hacks, mods, or any other unauthorized software designed to modify or defeat the purpose or experience of the Game;

https://www.frontierstore.net/ed-eula/

And if they're using the scripts to auto-load the allotments, they likely spend a lot less in fast-tracking. In 7 hours, they could easily load 14 allotments of 50 tonnes. Do that for seven days, and you are only a tiny bit shy of maintaining your Rating without fast-tracking at all.

EDIT: Removed an unfair characterisation.

 

[Cori]

It seems this week's prep war is yet more evidence that something needs to be done, and quickly, before the genuine players lose heart.

We've had Sandro's thoughts on what he politely called "collusion piracy" and the rest of us call griefing, and they have promise - what's needed now is urgency.

Any company running a more usual MMO where such a significant griefing of the genuine players was occurring would release a hot fix for it in a couple of days, merely for the sake of placating their player base and maintaining the integrity of the game. That sort of response is needed here, even if it's only some sort of temporary fix until a permanent solution is designed.

Personally I think it should either be made impossible to prepare a system that won't show a real profit, or players should be penalised for doing so. I might even suggest removing the ability to pay for fast tracking preparation materials completely for the moment.

 

[Dracaya Tzentchel]

Some screenshots posted by the 'alleged' 5th Column in AD's subreddit on Monday:

 

[Tifu]

AD supporter here. People who still claim it's just AD grinders contributing (mostly) to the problem may have a chance of finding out definitively if this really is the case. The AD 5C made an announcement that they *may* shift targets after (successfully) pushing Chnumar as an AD CC.

So we"ll see if that scenario holds water

 

[Cori]

AD supporter here. People who still claim it's just AD grinders contributing (mostly) to the problem may have a chance of finding out definitively if this really is the case. The AD 5C made an announcement that they *may* shift targets after (successfully) pushing Chnumar as an AD CC.

So we"ll see if that scenario holds water

Given that fifth columnists are liars by definition, I wouldn't put too much trust in that. Anyway, we've successfully stopped them inflicting Chnumar on us for months now. No plans on letting them force it onto us this time either.

 

[Arklar]

With respect to the different viewpoints presented here, I can't see any evidence for this being mindless grinders at work. Grinders are by definition consistent, and the Aisling prep battles represent huge spikes in Aisling activity. Grinders also take the easiest path, and forts are easier than preps.

If this is grinders, then it's grinders who act a lot like a small but committed group carrying out a hit.

 

[Gswine]

I think that you, like many who have attempted to pin down the size of the 5C problem, have forgotten one factor in your calculations.... Grinders, the Fifth Column only needs to get a system to the top of the prep list and then let the Grinders take it from there. In a power that attracts as many individuals as Aisling, it is fair to assume that there is a large proportion of the Aisling pledges that are uninformed grinders, not 5C. These Grinders (who are not 5C), I would argue, are the cause of most of the issue, the Fifth Column merely is able to direct them through swift action early in the cycle.
I am not criticizing you or your data, it is interesting and it does tell a story, I just think that it is not the whole story.

We took grinders into consideration weeks ago during the first prepping of Chnumar. We aimed our focus on the BGS, broke Inters Boom, bottomed prices on palladium, forced Lockdown to increase interdictions, patrolled constantly and while the prep war was fought Chnumar numbers increased beyond the capability of a grinder force to replenish it's bank roll.

Ironed out a majority grinder influence then.

 

[aspiringexpatriate]

Yeah, I hadn't looked at the numbers this week before. Grinders was believable the first time Chnumar went through. This time, not so much.