Engineers Something wrong with experimental effects of huge beam? Or just my luck?

ErichZann

ErichZann
I was modding my huge beam laser with the goal to get a thermal shock effect. In total I did over 200 rerolls (yes, over two hundred...).

So far:

one time Regeneration sequence
one time Concordance (or what it is called..)
six times Thermal Vent (SIX TIMES!!!)

So whats up with this? Am I just unbelieveably unlucky? Does thermal shock really exist for beam lasers? Any reason why I get thermal vent all....the...time?
 

h347h

h347h
ErichZann said:
I was modding my huge beam laser with the goal to get a thermal shock effect. In total I did over 200 rerolls (yes, over two hundred...).

So far:

one time Regeneration sequence
one time Concordance (or what it is called..)
six times Thermal Vent (SIX TIMES!!!)

So whats up with this? Am I just unbelieveably unlucky? Does thermal shock really exist for beam lasers? Any reason why I get thermal vent all....the...time?
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Starting at rank 1 you only have like a 6% chance for a special effect. Then you can get like 6 different ones. So currently as of right now it isn't really worth it to spam mods for specials. Wait for the favors system to be introduced.
 

ErichZann

ErichZann
h347h said:
Starting at rank 1 you only have like a 6% chance for a special effect. Then you can get like 6 different ones. So currently as of right now it isn't really worth it to spam mods for specials. Wait for the favors system to be introduced.
Click to expand...

I know what you're saying, but thats not the point I was after right now ;) I got the special effect I wanted on 5 other weapons before, and just thought it was strange to get 6 times the same one here....

And the "not worth it" part depends sadly, no one knows when they will introduce that system, my guess is several months. If you want to have a very good PvP ship until then, this is sadly necessary....
 
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tomalus

T
Thanks op, I did about 50 tries and now I see you did 200 and didnt get the special you wanted, you saved my life, Im not going to bother with special mods, in a sense theyre not even in game.
 

Crimson Kaim

Crimson Kaim
ErichZann said:
I was modding my huge beam laser with the goal to get a thermal shock effect. In total I did over 200 rerolls (yes, over two hundred...).

So far:

one time Regeneration sequence
one time Concordance (or what it is called..)
six times Thermal Vent (SIX TIMES!!!)

So whats up with this? Am I just unbelieveably unlucky? Does thermal shock really exist for beam lasers? Any reason why I get thermal vent all....the...time?
Click to expand...


Afaik the chance to get a mod is 10%? so 1/10.

Now let's see if I do everything right.

200C3*((1/10)^3)*(9/10)^197 = 1,270*(10^(-6)) = 0,000001271 = 0,0001271%

So assuming there is a 10% chance to get anything at all as a special effect per reroll, you have a 0,0001271% chance to get only 3 successful results. So if I didn't do anything wrong (which I prolly did somewhere lol) then you have REALLY bad luck. :p
 
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Nerwan

Nerwan
If the probability of getting any special effect is 6% then you might expect the average person to get 12 special effects in total in 200 rolls (it'd be a normal distribution curve where 12 was the most normal). On that basis only having 8 does make you a little unlucky, i.e. to the left of the normal distribution curve.

Given't that the probability of getting thermal shock is just 1%, you'd have had a 50% chance if you'd done 100 rolls and a 75% chance if you do 200 rolls. So again, you were slightly unlucky, you had a 4 sided dice and you rolled a 1. Unlucky, but not crazily so, them's the odds :-(
 

Crimson Kaim

Crimson Kaim
Nerwan said:
If the probability of getting any special effect is 6% then you might expect the average person to get 12 special effects in total in 200 rolls (it'd be a normal distribution curve where 12 was the most normal). On that basis only having 8 does make you a little unlucky, i.e. to the left of the normal distribution curve.

Given't that the probability of getting thermal shock is just 1%, you'd have had a 50% chance if you'd done 100 rolls and a 75% chance if you do 200 rolls. So again, you were slightly unlucky, you had a 4 sided dice and you rolled a 1. Unlucky, but not crazily so, them's the odds :-(
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1% only? Let's see


The chance to achieve thermal schock with 1% atleast once in 200 rerolls is 1-(1-1/100)^200 = 0,8660 = 86,6%

Pretty high actually ... but again, if I didn't do anything wrong here. :p
 

Nerwan

Nerwan
Ah, you're absolutely right I think.. (and my previous answer was incorrect)

(99/100)^200 is the probability of not getting thermal shock in 200 rolls, hence 1 - (99/100)^200 is the probability of actually getting it..

http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm

So Eric was quite unlucky then, roughly speaking he did the equivalent of rolling a 7 sided dice and rolling an unlucky 1. Having said that, although it's unlucky, it's still VERY possible.
 
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ErichZann

ErichZann
Nerwan said:
Ah, you're absolutely right I think.. (and my previous answer was incorrect)

(99/100)^200 is the probability of not getting thermal shock in 200 rolls, hence 1 - (99/100)^200 is the probability of actually getting it..

http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm

So Eric was quite unlucky then, roughly speaking he did the equivalent of rolling a 7 sided dice and rolling an unlucky 1. Having said that, although it's unlucky, it's still VERY possible.
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Yeah I agree.. But how are the chances of getting just thermal vent fricking 6 times? ;)
 

Derath

D
I've got a thermal shock beam OP its just rare, your asking for a 1/20 to get an effect roughly, then a 1/5 to get a specific mod.

So if your trying to go for one deliberately its going to take you a substantial length of time, I would also quite like 6 thermal vents so pass those over! ;)
 

h347h

h347h
ErichZann said:
I know what you're saying, but thats not the point I was after right now ;) I got the special effect I wanted on 5 other weapons before, and just thought it was strange to get 6 times the same one here....

And the "not worth it" part depends sadly, no one knows when they will introduce that system, my guess is several months. If you want to have a very good PvP ship until then, this is sadly necessary....
Click to expand...

I'm guessing you have never heard the therm RNG is RNG before?
 

ErichZann

ErichZann
Anyway, the main point of this thread was that I wanted to know:

a) does thermal shock really exist for huge beams? Seems so
b) are the special effects randomly distributed or not? If you get a special effect, do some have a higher probability than others?
 

Derath

D
ErichZann said:
Anyway, the main point of this thread was that I wanted to know:

a) does thermal shock really exist for huge beams? Seems so
b) are the special effects randomly distributed or not? If you get a special effect, do some have a higher probability than others?
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#1 yes
#2 randomly distributed, remember for every person who gets 6 thermal vents in a row somewhere there will be somebody who gets 6 thermal shocks in a row :p as much as you want to be #2 they are both just part of rng.
 

YinYin

YinYin
Derath said:
#2 randomly distributed, remember for every person who gets 6 thermal vents in a row somewhere there will be somebody who gets 6 thermal shocks in a row :p as much as you want to be #2 they are both just part of rng.
Click to expand...

I think the question rather is whether within the chance of getting anything at all there is a higher/lower chance to get specific ones.

We don't know.
 
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