Speculation: The Long Road to a DLC. (Or: Explaining the Spectacled Caiman)

This is a speculation thread -- or perhaps a retroactive speculation thread since I'm speculating about things in the past -- so keep in mind that I don't have any insider knowledge here.

One of the things I'm interested in is the production cycle and decision cycle that businesses go through. I notice, for example, that it's exactly two years since the South America pack was released and the capybara soared to its number one place on the meta-list. Similarly, it's been 20 months since the Australia pack was released without the platypus, and 16 months since the aquatic pack and the debates about giant vs. asian small clawed otters.

That got me thinking about some of the more surprise animals that are showing up in our animal packs too, and wondering whether they really were less demanded at the time the decisions were made, or whether we all just have short attention spans and have forgotten what it is we had asked for!

So I did a bit of searching through old forum posts, and lo and behold, I found posts from the past talking about the spectacled caiman, nile lechwe, and wild water buffalo by name. As well as several posts from late 2020/early 2021 talking about the need for more reptiles and ungulates. And as someone else pointed out in another thread, the lechwe and buffalo and caiman were all early mods that have a high number of downloads. Plus, for the spectacled caimans, the discussion was specifically around how they are very common in zoos, which tied into larger discussions about realism, etc..

None of this should necessarily change how people feel about any given pack or any choice within a pack. But it may offer some insight into how and when the pack was conceived and put together. (I had a similar reaction to the way I noticed the South East Asia pack being received at the time, since I knew that I'd seen so many of those animals listed as top requests -- until Frontier gave them to us and suddenly people were like "why are we getting that"?)

So I guess this has got me wondering if this gives us insight into Frontier's development cycle, and also potentially what it might tell us about the packs to come -- presuming that they may have made a decision about several packs at once to plan their year, for example. Should we be considering not merely our current wishlists and meta-lists, but also thinking back to what the conversations might have been 12, 18 or 24 months prior, and expecting to see selections from those? Were there "fads" in the forums that might have flamed out with time, but which still may be baked into the production pipeline? Conversely, does it give us a clue about how long it might take for any currently requested feature to actually go through the cycle of decision-development-production? If creative decisions for the next year are made every March, for example, then a fad that was popular in January-February may be more influential to what we get a year later than one that appeared in April-May.
 
And as someone else pointed out in another thread, the lechwe and buffalo and caiman were all early mods that have a high number of downloads.
Ahha, that was me.

I think the explanation is pretty simple, and boils down to a couple key points:
  • This pack was likely planned out late last summer, after North America had already been planned
    • This is relevant because the beaver and alligator would make a lot of sense in a wetlands pack, but a wetlands pack was not planned or even thought about until after work on North America had begun
  • All 3 had or were part of popular mods during the time of conception
  • Frontier likes to have at least 1 "clone" type animal to make life easier for the animal making team

That, I think, is generally a pretty good explanation. I still would've preferred the clone be the Asian water monitor, or Nile croc, or another bird, but it is what it is.
 
Happy to give you credit! I knew I hadn't dreamed it up.

I particularly like the theory about being planned after the North American beaver and alligator.

Part of what's interesting to me is whether they planned a full year at that time (meaning that the next few dlc's may reflect the thinking of that moment), or whether they have more of a rolling decision process, where decisions are made 9-12 months ahead, but one at a time every three months.
 
Happy to give you credit! I knew I hadn't dreamed it up.

I particularly like the theory about being planned after the North American beaver and alligator.

Part of what's interesting to me is whether they planned a full year at that time (meaning that the next few dlc's may reflect the thinking of that moment), or whether they have more of a rolling decision process, where decisions are made 9-12 months ahead, but one at a time every three months.
I think that at the very least, the first two packs of a year are completely planned by the time the 3rd pack of the previous year is released.
 
Kind of makes me want to go back and see which other mods were most popular at that time (particularly if they are rainforest or desert related, which I think are good possibilities for packs that are probably in the pipeline).

Also makes me want to go back and read what was being said immediately after both the Africa and South East Asia packs, since those would have been the lists, reviews, and discussions that would be freshest in their minds when they'd be picking these. Maybe particularly when thinking about clones, if there was a particular alternate to something in one of those packs that was getting a lot of attention at the time, even if disproportionate to its place on the meta-list.
 
I think it's possible their information was "out of date" by the time they conceived of this pack. The capybara and ASCO have been popular for a long time, after all.

It's a bit like how they included the Arctic fox in the NA Pack; by then the fox wasn't nearly as popular as it used to be. Its popularity surged around release and especially around the Arctic Pack, and after the Arctic Pack it was a popular alternative to the Arctic wolf. Yet people stopped talking about it, but somehow it made it into the NA Pack anyway.
 
Somewhere someone on the forum mentioned before the Wetlands release that it was said that the another 5 in the works. That should give you an idea of how far ahead the developers are, and gives them a buffer. The Summer DLC whatever it is, is probably 80-90% complete, the Autumn one 60-80%, the animals and theme the first things locked in before they are researched. This pack was likely conceived around the time the aquatic pack was being completed on after the Australia pack was released.
 
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NA animal pack was planned in late 2020 and first animals were made in early 2021. (before SEA pack)
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Same guy made leaf insect.
 
Timeline is even more crazy, because according to steam EU pack was assigned as dlc on 13th August. Which isnt something unusual, unless you find out its before NA animal pack. In reality EU pack was just sitting 4 months to be released on december. Thats reason why there were so much EU pack pieces in 1.7 game files

+ appearance of capybara, buyos, underwater feeder and hot springs. Wetland pack was planned in mid 2021.
 
I mean the year one dlcs were all very likely planned before the main game even released (I include the Arctic pack in year 1)

The first 4 dlcs released were all planned early. Work was likely already done on the Arctic Pack when the game released and the SA pack was in late development.

Probably around mid 2020 was the SEA pack planned and development began.

So I think it's safe to say that this year's dlcs were planned at least a year to 9 months ago.
 
So bear with me here...
Australia pack. I imagine the platypus would have been a popular request following that release. 6 DLC'S later here it is. Is that a coincidence?
another example - the Arctic fox. Popular request after the Arctic DLC i would imagine. North America Pack was again 6 DLCS later and voila the Arctic Fox.
White Rhino and Meerkats i imagine probably popular after the base game + deluxe release. Africa was the sixth DLC .
I should mention that the first five packs were likely planned from the start so don't count in this theory

All I'm saying is that these DLCS take time and the timeline from conception to release seems to takes about 18 months based on the pattern, and we should appreciate the time put in and that requests are listened to, just not as instant as you/we would like. So if you want clues to what the developers were thinking for the next DLC may be about rewind the clock to after the release of the Aquatic DLC so the end of 2020, look at the wish-lists and take out those since released and see if you can put a theme together.
 
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So if you want clues to what the developers were thinking for the next DLC may be about rewind the clock to after the release of the Aquatic DLC so the end of 2020, take out those since released and see if you can put a theme together.

2.0 update and DLC inspired by species people were missing in the aquatic pack? We could get aquariums, dolphins, manatees... 🤯 Or just the opposite because of some very vocal discussions agains that!
 
2.0 update and DLC inspired by species people were missing in the aquatic pack? We could get aquariums, dolphins, manatees... 🤯 Or just the opposite because of some very vocal discussions agains that!
I doubt that we'd get anything ocean-themed right after getting our second aquatic pack, but who knows!
 
I agree. And the arctic fox definitely fits this pattern well!

I also think the very idea of animal packs fits the pattern. Presuming they had the first several packs planned out (or at least sketched out) even before release, then the South East Asia pack may have been one of the first ones that had fan input as a real factor from the time of conception all the way through development.

For me, recognizing the long development time gives me hope. (and perspective). It's so easy to fall into the trap of thinking we'll "never" get something, when it may actually be that the dev team has been working hard on that very thing for months.

I think about birds, for example. Sure, people have mentioned them from the beginning. But the real push came sometime after the aquatic pack, when the concept of packs designed around a "mechanic" really took off. If this information about the development cycle is right, then this coming December (rather than what some assumed would have been this past December) would be just about the right timeline for something like that.

The same might be true of something like leopards too. They may have always been popular as one of several types of cats on people's lists, but I imagine that we all made a larger push for them, in a more focused and specific way, as other cats on that list appeared in the game. (In other words, leopards and jaguars might have been about equal at one point. But if for example the leopard had been in one of first year dlc instead of the jaguar, then jaguars might be the animal sitting at the top of the meta-list).
 
I partly agree with your assessment.
The Caiman was on the list a while ago, but it would have sunk down a good bit after the Aquatic pack gave us the Cuvier's Caiman, and then even more after the North American gave us the Alligator.
I do think Frontier does plan some things out well in advance. I believe they said that the diving mechanics we got in the Aquatic Pack took about a year to perfect. I think that likely slowed down some of their development. I do think they had intended to give us an Aviary by now(just my opinion here). So I think they have had to adjust their timeline of DLCs.
I'm not willing to accept that Frontier looks at the wishlist for every animal. I do think they use it as sort of a guide to know how popular any given animal will be received by the community. It wouldn't make any sense for them to pick a bunch of highly-requested animals with each DLC, as eventually the interest in new DLCs would wane with less and less appealing animals.
I think they look at the list and pick a couple animals towards the top to make sure it will be generate excitement, and fill it out with animals further down the list. Btw, I rank every animal in this DLC as a minimum 4 out of 5 stars except for the Caiman.
 
Timeline is even more crazy, because according to steam EU pack was assigned as dlc on 13th August. Which isnt something unusual, unless you find out its before NA animal pack. In reality EU pack was just sitting 4 months to be released on december. Thats reason why there were so much EU pack pieces in 1.7 game files

+ appearance of capybara, buyos, underwater feeder and hot springs. Wetland pack was planned in mid 2021.
This has me thinking they are so delayed we should be looking at the OG meta-wishlist to try and figure out what might be coming next.

Przewalski's Horse, Lar Gibbon, Wolverine, and Amur leopard make a nice little Asia scenery pack.
Maned Wolf, Tasmanian Devil, African Crested Porcupine, Scimitar-Horned Oryx, Common Wombat, Emu and Fossa can all fit into a "Drylands" or "Scrublands" animal pack.
 
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Not really - the devil lives in temperate forests.
Yeah, I know, but given that some of those fall under the dry forest category, maybe I'm just wishfully thinking it would work. Because they would (or hopefully will) have both temperate forest and grassland biomes in game
 
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