The ADS

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Oh yeah, I missed these:

The figures are based on FDevs systems discovered so far and the systems and planets discovered on EDSM.
Plus DW2 statistics.

The figures banded about don't really show much and doesn't say anything about how many are exploring.
Untrue. You've read this, and you seem to forget quick. Going with a per-player average (from the sources mentioned above) which would be 10.12 systems a day, while also scanning 108.86 bodies, plus auto-scanning 18.42 stars, we have a daily average of 9,325 explorers, rounded up. Out of them, 2,011 would be on EDSM. For a standard 95% confidence level then, the margin of error would be 1.93%.

While it can extrapolate some information it doesn't take into account a lot of other stuff. It's flawed and not an accurate way to see if the new mechanics are a success or not.
Is this just your opinion, or do you have any actual arguments and proof in favour of it? Last time(s), you didn't, but perhaps something came to you since. So, any alternatives to offer? What would be an accurate way to see if the new mechanics are a success or not, if it isn't how much people explore?

For instance, I am exploring around the abyss at the moment and 70-80% of the systems I have jumped to have already been discovered. None of those will appear on any official stats.
Surely you're not as self-centered as to think that your personal example invalidates the majority's. Also, your example of the Abyss here brings up a region of lower star density(!) that has been extensively travelled even before DW2, and one that thousands of players have gone through then.
And no offense, but "none of those will appear on any official stats" makes no sense. If Frontier would share a newer count of systems discovered with us, of course they would appear there.
 
It's worth rewatching the developers' stream about it too, seeing what they focused on, how they all played and presented it, the level of enthusiasm, and so on. That's what matters the most, not what some players think about it. I mean, the most common pro-FSS argument that doesn't involve rewards and making things easier is that it gave something to do, and where the bar for quality is varies from person to person. So it's good to consider what the developers who had to present it seem to think and feel about it.

Im really glad someone else noticed this. It wasn't until june this year that anyone from frontier demonstrated using the fss in a non alarming way. Every time the designers and will used it on stream.. so many alarm bells were going off in my head.. firstly these people just arent like me.. i play elite differently than they do.. and was just shocked at how anyone, let alone the developers, could showcase proudly being dismissive of a feature while using it.

Dont know.
 
Plenty of people also went out on DW2 as the last chance of giving the new mechanic(s) a go, and then left. Even among those who stayed, many of the "top" explorers seem to explore considerably less these days than they used to.


Oh, but it has gone down in a very significant manner. You see, DW2 brought thousands of players to exploration, and doubled (or in some statistics, tripled) previous activity. Honestly, it all was a golden opportunity for Frontier. Yet after the expedition was over, all of those gains, and the gains from the Chapter Four: gone. I guess it's a consolation prize that at least it has not gone well below pre-Chapter Four levels, but personally, I wouldn't count that as a huge success.

There are two possibilities:
1. A lot of people stopped exploring after Chapter Four, and the same amount of new people continued exploring after DW2, balancing it out
2. Not a lot of people stopped exploring after Chapter Four, and a lot of the new people stopped exploring after DW2, balancing it out

We can't tell those two apart well enough, unfortunately. But I think it's quite telling if you go see how many of DW2's organizers still explore, and what the official ending statement and whether there will be a DW3 was. Of course, it was worded very carefully, because I believe they didn't want to offend Frontier and risk not getting as much official support for a possible next expedition as the lot they received for DW2. But otherwise, a lot of people out on DW2 said that while FD's manual support (building the stations) was great, the exploration part turned out to be quite the disappointment. The new mechanics, well, they certainly weren't enough to sustain interest on their own, and as for the promised new content, breadcrumbs and whatnot, I believe that the list of entirely new things (not molluscs of a different colour and slightly tweaked shape) added by Chapter Four and discovered by the thousands of players on the expedition speaks for itself:
  • Aster trees and pods
That's it.
Let's just say that's not what the vast majority of people expected.


Oh, and about "players spending more time in systems then before": there's no proof that players are spending more time in systems than they did before, but there is proof that they spend less time using the FSS than they did before.

Anyway, back to the FSS then:

Well, yes. There is no possibility of failure with the FSS, and the only reward for improving your "skill" with it is that you might shave a few seconds off of the time required to complete the minigame.

Your comment about promotion was bang on. It's worth rewatching the developers' stream about it too, seeing what they focused on, how they all played and presented it, the level of enthusiasm, and so on. That's what matters the most, not what some players think about it. I mean, the most common pro-FSS argument that doesn't involve rewards and making things easier is that it gave something to do, and where the bar for quality is varies from person to person. So it's good to consider what the developers who had to present it seem to think and feel about it.
You stats are not accurate as it doesn't include people that are exploring in previously explored areas. Not everyone explored planets for POIs.

Also where is the latest data from Fdev?

If all you are using is EDSM as a benchmark then that isn't enough. There will be plenty that don't use it.
 
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You stats are not accurate as it doesn't include people that are exploring in previously explored areas. Not everyone explored planets for POIs.
Surely you understand that it includes new bodies as well, not just new systems. Also, any time something is updated with new information (such as surface mapping) that was missing before, it counts as a new one.

Hm, now that I think about it, this does mean that a person uploading stuff someone else discovered also counts as new. Well, in that case, the number of people exploring are likely less, even if not by any significant factor. So, um, good for you?

Also where is the latest data from Fdev?
On Twitter, 2018. March 2. There's some in-game data related to community exploration as well, but it's not of much use. Perhaps you could ask them for more? Everyone would like it if they did, I believe.

If all you are using if EDSM as a benchmark then that isn't enough. There will be plenty that don't use it.
As anyone can see from the numbers and analysis, the sample is plenty large enough to be representative. Bear in mind that we are talking about changes and trends here: the whole point of such statistics is that from a large enough sample of the population, we can deduce things about the whole with a reasonable degree of accuracy. (Like I said, the margin of error here would be 1.93%, for the 95% confidence level.) With one exception: if the sample itself is different from the whole in significant ways.
In other words, the only way you could prove that it's not representative enough is to prove that those who don't upload to EDSM explore significantly more or less than those who do. Can you do that?

(The closest I could bring up was that while ~40% of the sign-ups were on EDSM too, 70% of those who actually finished were on EDSM. But all that shows is that those who signed up to the expedition on EDSM were more committed to finishing it than those who weren't.)
 
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