But this currency is designed to earn Frontier real currency in return... (the kind that buys real food and a roof above your head), I'm not so sure that frontier would design this new system in such a way that predictable patterns can be easily discerned. Sure Weekly 400 ARX is roughly 24p (UK sterling) but its still money which adds up across the player base month by month, year by year, ARX which players could be buying with real money. Man hours spent developing the cosmetics not being paid for.
There's not that much point in them making the patterns opaque - the BGS has
far less direct feedback between action and effect, and people have figured that out. Some of the early Thargoid puzzles were pretty complex, too.
This isn't necessarily true, though. Yes, sure, I'll get somewhere between £2 and £10 of "free" cosmetics a year - depending on how much I can be bothered to max out the weekly limit in the weeks I wouldn't get there anyway - that I'd previously either have paid for or not obtained at all. On the other hand, if it encourages people to play the game more, that could end up making them more money overall in the long run. Even if the people playing more don't buy more cosmetics to top up the free Arx, the larger community is itself valuable.
Or put another way: semi-active player count is probably around 200k, and the proportion of those active enough to regularly max out free Arx is going to be much lower - maybe 10k or so. So it's maybe costing them £100k in "sales" ... not all of which would actually be realised in the first place because not every active player buys that many cosmetics. It doesn't take a lot of people
- buying alt accounts
- buying more cosmetics than they previously would have
- encouraging other people to start playing
...all possible consequences of people playing more than they previously did...
to clear that nominal £100k - and it's not a
massive risk for them if it doesn't work out, either.